East German Economy: Demand Push Stronger than Structural Deficiencies
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2007
Abstract
In 2006, growth of production was surprisingly strong in Eastern Germany. The structural deficiencies there would have suggested a slower pace. In particular, linkages with national and international business cycles have been underestimated. To a large part, the reason why output grew by 3 per cent did not come from Eastern Germany itself, but from the Old Länder and from abroad. In the New Länder, the strong upward swing in investment activity stimulated the economy. However, owing to a small increase in total income of private households, their purchasing power lagged behind.
The improved ability of East German firms to absorb cyclical impulses from exports and from Germany’s general investment activity proved to be a crucial factor. In particular, the endowment of workplaces with modern production facilities as well as the continued reduction in the disadvantages with respect to cost-competitiveness in the tradable goods sector were beneficial. The labour cost advantage compared to West German competitors increased further while the disadvantage compared to those from Central and Eastern Europe decreased.
Benefiting from these factors, economic activity in Eastern Germany will grow faster than in the Old Länder as long as the upswing in Germany and abroad remains strong. In 2007 and 2008, investments – especially in equipment – and exports will be the driving forces again. For exports, the strongly expanding markets in Central and Eastern Europe as well as in Russia will gain in importance. As income and employment prospects improve, private consumption will support the growth in production. Registered unemployment should decrease below the 1-million threshold.
Manufacturing will remain the primary force of the upswing; its advantages in production costs will not vanish as long as, even in presence of scarcity of skilled labour, salaries and wages do not increase more than in Western Germany. In the wake of robust economic growth, the New Länder will make further progress in catching up with respect to production and income.
Companies will regain support from the banking industry. Yet, investment capital still stems from public funding programmes to a non-negligible extent. In the medium run, access to credit will ease as a result of further improvements in the firms’ net worth position. However, dependency on internal funds remains high and exposes companies to comparatively strong cyclical risks. In an economic downturn, the structural deficiencies of the East German economy will impair economic expansion.
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Russia: Importance of the Energy Sector for the Economic Growth Remains High
Martina Kämpfe
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2007
Abstract
In 2006, Russian economic growth was once more driven by surging private consumption and investment. Thanks to the high energy prices, the boom in export revenues continued. Enterprises had increased earnings from oil and other natural resources, and also the government budget had high surpluses. Both led to significantly faster growth of investments. Construction sector and industry benefited from rising investments, but domestic demand of investment and consumption also covered by increased imports. The importance of the energy sector for the economy remains high. But sustainable long-term growth will require even more investment as well as substantial improvements in economic restructuring.
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Requirements on Regulation Frameworks: What is the Best Way of Securing Efficiency in the Water Sector?
Peter Haug
Competition Policy in Network Industries, INFER Research Perspectives, Vol. 3,
2007
Abstract
The paper investigates the effects of several characteristics of regulatory frameworks in the water sector on the efficiency of water provision. Several requirements on efficient regulatory frameworks suggested in other studies of network industries are modified and others are derived from different economic theories of regulation. The resulting set of criteria is applied to the regulation systems of the Dutch, German and US-American water industry. A comparison of several performance indicators for the three countries suggests that some relationship between the design of regulatory frameworks and the price-quality-ratios in the water sector might exist.
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The East German Cement Cartel: Cartel Efficiency and Policy after Economic Transformation
Ulrich Blum
Eastern Economic Review,
2007
Abstract
In 2003 the German Antitrust Commission (GAC) proved the existence of a cartel in the German cement industry. The German cement producers involved in the case were fined € 661 million for having established quotas to extract additional rents. One of the main centers of this cartel was East Germany, where the East German Cement Combine with its giant facilities had been sold, in the early 1990s, to four large producers by Treuhand in the process of privatizing the economy. Only in respect to in this market did all defendants concede having had a part in forming a cartel.
In this paper, we challenge the argument of excess revenue that the GAC puts forward for the East German market. We argue that legal evidence does not necessarily translate into economic evidence. We show that demand for cement is realized in geographical and, to a more limited extent, in product space. Thus, in the absence of cartels we would expect monopolistic competition to prevail. We argue that any transition in the market regime, from the cartel to the post cartel period, must be traceable in the individual firm’s demand function which differs from the clients’ demand function because of costs for spatial and product differentiation. Within the framework of an econometric model, we cannot identify any structural changes in demand. Most likely, imports from Poland and the Czech Republic were dumped into the East German market and some medium sized producers were responsible for the cartel never working.
Finally the paper shows how difficult it is to generate competition in certain industries even under the umbrella of a well-established market economy, i.e. that of West Germany, and that the openness of the economy, i.e. trans-border shipments, are decisive.
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Challenges for Formal Standardization: the Institutional Reforms 2008 – 2010 Reconsidered.
Ulrich Blum
Standardization Research in Information Technology: New Perspectives,
2007
Abstract
This study considers the developments in international standardization over the last 20 years, particularly the status of formal standardization as compared with consortium-based industrial standardization. The report shows that the radical reform of the global formal standardization system that started in 2008, prompted by the loss of interest in formal standardization on the part of large corporations and the sometimes less than satisfactory outcomes from consortium-based industrial standardization in terms of competition and anti-trust considerations, has helped to compensate for the declining significance of national formal standardization. This specifically relates to national governments, and is to be regarded as a clearly positive development, from both the economic and the institutional and political points of view. Global public interests are now catered for by internet-supported information markets; in particular, online documentation has also enhanced the transparency of the formal standardization process and provided freedom of access for small and medium sized companies in particular, irrespective of geographical region. Finally, the study shows that the debate that took place in and around the year 2004 between Europe and the USA regarding the path towards the internationalization of formal standardization processes was superfluous, incomplete and even counterproductive, owing to the hardening of the political divisions between the two sides.
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Industry Specialization, Diversity and the Efficiency of Regional Innovation Systems
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Jena Economic Research Papers, Nr. 2007-018,
No. 18,
2007
Abstract
Innovation processes are characterized by a pronounced division of labor between actors. Two types of externality may arise from such interactions. On the one hand, a close location of actors affiliated to the same industry may stimulate innovation (MAR externalities). On the other hand, new ideas may be born by the exchange of heterogeneous and complementary knowledge between actors, which belong to different industries (Jacobs’ externalities). We test the impact of both MAR as well as Jacobs’ externalities on innovative performance at the regional level. The results suggest an inverted u-shaped relationship between regional specialization in certain industries and innovative performance. Further key determinants of the regional innovative performance are private sector R&D and university-industry collaboration.
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What Determines the Efficiency of Regional Innovation Systems?
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Jena Economic Research Papers, Nr. 2007-006,
No. 6,
2007
Abstract
We assess the efficiency of regional innovation systems (RIS) in Germany by means of a knowledge production function. This function relates private sector research and development (R&D) activity in a region to the number of inventions that have been registered by residents of that region. Different measures and estimation approaches lead to rather similar assessments. We find that both spillovers within the private sector as well as from universities and other public research institutions have a positive effect on the efficiency of private sector R&D in the respective region. It is not the mere presence and size of public research institutions, but rather the intensity of interactions between private and public sector R&D that leads to high RIS efficiency. We find that relationship between the diversity of a regions’ industry structure and the efficiency of its innovation system is inversely u-shaped. Regions dominated by large establishments tend to be less efficient than regions with a lower average establishment size.
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Economic 'Clusters' in East Germany: Evidence on the Location and the Characteristics of Spatially Concentrated Industries
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Peter Franz, Gerhard Heimpold
Post-Communist Economies,
No. 1,
2007
Abstract
The contribution provides empirical findings, which regions in East Germany show spatially concentrated industries possessing ”cluster” qualities. The latter are regarded as being existent if spatially concentrated industries coincide with networking activities and innovative competences. The findings reveal that spatially concentrated industries possessing the qualities sketched are relatively rare, and they are, if existent, primarily located in the East German agglomerated spaces. This in mind, the article draws the conclusion, that spreading regional policy schemes by the “watering can principle” should be avoided. Instead, the resources should be concentrated on locations where spatially concentrated industries are existent. Networks and innovative competences should be strengthened there.
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Mikroökonometrische Evaluation der ökonomischen Wirkungen betrieblicher Mitbestimmung - Möglichkeiten und Grenzen des Matching-Ansatzes
Birgit Schultz
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik,
No. 5,
2006
Abstract
The evaluation of economic effects of workers participation is not simple from the methodical point of view because of specific characteristics of establishments with works councils. Especially recent studies show contradictory results. In this study problems are pointed out, discussed, and options for solution are presented on the example of workers participation in East German establishments of industry and construction by the IAB-Establishment Panel.
An optimal matching-algorithm which supplies good matching-results for small samples to assign 'statistical establishment-twins' is applied. But by reason of very short primarily spells it can only calculate short time effects. Therefore, the matching method is additionally used to construct longer observation periods. By this new application establishments with recently founded works councils are matched with so called 'proxy establishments' with existing works councils. As a result short observation periods are prolonged and information about long-term effects can be given.
The effects on productivity, profitability and qualification level of employees show neither in short-term nor in long-term a significant impact on workers' participation.
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