Productivity
Productivity: More with Less by Better Available resources are scarce. To sustain our...
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Coal Phase-out in Germany – Implications and Policies for Affected Regions
Pao-Yu Oei, Hauke Hermann, Philipp Herpich, Oliver Holtemöller, Benjamin Lünenbürger, Christoph Schult
Energy,
April
2020
Abstract
The present study examines the consequences of the planned coal phase-out in Germany according to various phase-out pathways that differ in the ordering of power plant closures. Soft-linking an energy system model with an input-output model and a regional macroeconomic model simulates the socio-economic effects of the phase-out in the lignite regions, as well as in the rest of Germany. The combination of two economic models offers the advantage of considering the phase-out from different perspectives and thus assessing the robustness of the results. The model results show that the lignite coal regions will exhibit losses in output, income and population, but a faster phase-out would lead to a quicker recovery. Migration to other areas in Germany and demographic changes will partially compensate for increasing unemployment, but support from federal policy is also necessary to support structural change in these regions.
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Short-term Economic Effects of a "Brexit" on the German Economy
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Andrej Drygalla, Stefan Gebauer, Oliver Holtemöller, Martina Kämpfe, Axel Lindner, Claus Michelsen, Malte Rieth, Thore Schlaak
IWH Online,
No. 3,
2019
Abstract
Many questions about Brexit remain open. It is still possible that the UK and the European Union will not be able to agree on a withdrawal agreement. In this case a so-called hard Brexit (No-Deal Brexit) would happen. We have examined the short-term effects of a hard Brexit for the German economy. In a first step, effects via the trading channel are estimated based on an input-output analysis of international and sectoral links. The result is a loss of 0.3% relative to gross domestic product. This magnitude also results from the international Halle Economic Projection Model, which takes into account macroeconomic repercussions. A hard Brexit would, in addition to the trade barriers, mean significant uncertainty for firms and households. On the demand side, this has a negative impact on investment activity and private consumption. Taken alone, these effects amount to 0.1% of gross domestic product. Overall, German gross domestic product could be dampened by several tenths of a percentage point in the one to two years following a hard Brexit. The automotive industry would probably suffer most. However, recommendations for discretionary economic policy measures aimed at dampening short-term macroeconomic effects or at individual economic sectors cannot be derived from this. The automatic stabilizers are sufficient given the expected magnitude of the effects.
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Klimaschutz und Kohleausstieg: Politische Strategien und Maßnahmen bis 2030 und darüber hinaus
Pao-Yu Oei, Casimir Lorenz, Sophie Schmalz, Hanna Brauers, Philipp Herpich, Christian von Hirschhausen, Claudia Kemfert, Barbara Dröschel, Jan Hildebrand, Juri Horst, Uwe Klann, Patrick Matschoss, Michael Porzig, Irina Rau, Bernhard Wern, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Gerhard Heimpold, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Christoph Schult, Hauke Hermann, Dirk Heyen, Katja Schumacher, Cornelia Ziehm
Pao-Yu Oei et al., Klimaschutz und Kohleausstieg: Politische Strategien und Maßnahmen bis 2030 und darüber hinaus. Abschlussbericht. Climate Change 27/2019. Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt,
2019
published in: Energy
Abstract
The present study examines the socio-economic consequences of a climate policy-driven coal phase-out in Germany. A focus lies on the lignite industry – especially in the lignite regions. In a first step, the regions are spatially defined and described. Additional analysis is based on energy economic modelling. The model examines phase-out scenarios, which differ in the chosen criteria for the order of power plant closure (specific emissions or plant age). An input-output-model and a regional macroeconomic model build up on these phase-out pathways and examine the socio economic effects of the phase-out in the lignite regions as well as in the rest of Germany. The combination of both models offers the advantage to consider the phase-out from different perspective and hence derive different and more robust effects. The models show, on the one hand, that in an early phase-out the negative effects of structural change are visible earlier. On the other hand, recuperative effects can counteract the negative consequences according to the regional economic model.
Furthermore, the structural change creates economic opportunities. Those opportunities are primarily diversified economic activities. Case studies show significant employment potentials for the lignite regions. New jobs in renewable energies and energetic optimization of buildings can already counteract the negative employment effects associated with the investigated structural change. The study concludes, describing accompanying political instruments that can support the regions on their way to master the challenges of the up-coming structural change.
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IWH FDI Micro Database
IWH FDI Micro Database The IWH FDI Micro Database (FDI = Foreign Direct...
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15.01.2019 • 1/2019
Schneller Braunkohleausstieg hat deutliche Folgen in betroffenen Regionen
Wenn Deutschland die Braunkohleverstromung vorzeitig beendet, wird die Gesamtwirtschaft kaum beeinträchtigt. Allerdings zeigen Berechnungen des Leibniz-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) spürbare Effekte auf die Arbeitsmärkte des Rheinlands, Mitteldeutschlands und der Lausitz. Eine Region ist besonders betroffen von Arbeitslosigkeit und Abwanderung.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Germany’s “Bazaar-economy” After the Financial and Economic Crisis
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Udo Ludwig
Klaus Voy (Ed.): Außenhandel und Globalisierung in gesamtwirtschaftlicher Sicht. Marburg: Metropolis,
2018
Abstract
Because of its huge dependence on the world markets, Germany’s economy was strongly hit by the financal and economic crisis in 2008/2009. Applying the input-output model, the paper deals with the net-impact of the export shock on value added and employment in Germany.
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Frauenerwerbstätigkeit – Eine Input-Output-Analyse
Udo Ludwig, Cornelia Lang
Neuere Anwendungsfelder der Input-Output-Analyse – Tagungsband – Beiträge zum Input-Output-Workshop 2014 in Osnabrück. gws Research Report 2014/2,
2014
Abstract
In Deutschland sind die unmittelbar mit dem Exportgeschäft verbundenen Produktionsbereiche männerdominiert. Der Exporteinbruch in der vergangenen Wirtschaftskrise wurde deshalb in der Öffentlichkeit mit der Erwartung verknüpft, dass er vor allem die Beschäftigung von Männern und weniger von Frauen treffen würde. Wir überprüfen diese These anhand des um eine Beschäftigungsmatrix nach dem Geschlecht der Erwerbstätigen und Arbeitszeitgruppen erweiterten mehrsektoralen offenen statischen Input-Output-Modells.
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Can R&D Subsidies Counteract the Economic Crisis? – Macroeconomic Effects in Germany
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Jutta Günther, Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig, Nicole Nulsch
Research Policy,
No. 3,
2015
Abstract
During the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, governments in Europe stabilized their economies by means of fiscal policy. After decades of absence, deficit spending was used to counteract the heavy decline in demand. In Germany, public spending went partially into R&D subsidies in favor of small and medium sized enterprises. Applying the standard open input–output model, the paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of R&D subsidies on employment and production in the business cycle. Findings in the form of backward multipliers suggest that R&D subsidies have stimulated a substantial leverage effect. Almost two thirds of the costs of R&D projects are covered by the enterprises themselves. Overall, a subsidized R&D program results in a production, value added and employment effect that amounts to at least twice the initial financing. Overall, the R&D program counteracts the decline of GDP by 0.5% in the year 2009. In the year 2010 the effects are already procyclical since the German economy recovered quickly. Compared to the strongly discussed alternative uses of subsidies for private consumption, R&D spending is more effective.
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