Rules versus Discretion in Loan Rate Setting
Geraldo Cerqueiro, Hans Degryse, Steven Ongena
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
No. 4,
2011
Abstract
Loan rates for seemingly identical borrowers often exhibit substantial dispersion. This paper investigates the determinants of the dispersion in interest rates on loans granted by banks to small and medium sized enterprises. We associate this dispersion with the loan officers’ use of “discretion” in the loan rate setting process. We find that “discretion” is most important if: (i) loans are small and unsecured; (ii) firms are small and opaque; (iii) the firm operates in a large and highly concentrated banking market; and (iv) the firm is distantly located from the lender. Consistent with the proliferation of information-technologies in the banking industry, we find a decreasing role for “discretion” over time in the provision of small credits to opaque firms. While widely used in the pricing of loans, “discretion” plays only a minor role in the decisions to grant loans.
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Incubating an Illusion? Long-term Incubator Firm Performance after Graduation
Michael Schwartz
Growth and Change,
No. 4,
2011
Abstract
Local economic development policies worldwide perceive business incubation as an effective measure to promote regional growth through the support of young and innovative ventures. The common assumption is that incubation promotes firm growth, in particular after these firms graduated from their incubator organizations. This article investigates the long-term performance of 324 graduate firms from five German business incubators (incubated between 1990 and 2006) after they have (successfully) completed their incubation. The present study does not suffer from a survivor bias, meaning that performance data of non-surviving firms is also included. Using employment and sales measures as performance indicators, this study contributes to our knowledge with regard to long-term incubator firm performance after graduation. While in the first years after graduation there is significant growth of formerly incubated firms, further results do not support the presumption of continuous firm growth beyond incubation. A minority of graduate firms exhibits a strong increase in performance, but the majority of firms do not experience considerable growth.
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The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster’s Perspective
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
Abstract
This paper analyses the recession in 2008/2009 in Germany, which is very different from previous recessions, in particular regarding its cause and magnitude. We show to what extent forecasters and forecasts based on leading indicators fail to detect the timing and the magnitude of the recession. This study shows that large forecast errors for both expert forecasts and forecasts based on leading indicators resulted during this recession which implies that the recession was very difficult to forecast. However, some leading indicators (survey data, risk spreads, stock prices) have indicated an economic downturn and hence, beat univariate time series models. Although the combination of individual forecasts provides an improvement compared to the benchmark model, the combined forecasts are worse than several individual models. A comparison of expert forecasts with the best forecasts based on leading indicators shows only minor deviations. Overall, the range for an improvement of expert forecasts during the crisis compared to indicator forecasts is relatively small.
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What are the Long-Term Benefits of the Economic Stimulus Package II for German Local Governments? – The Case of Saxony
Peter Haug
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
This article deals with the question whether the investments subsidized by the economic stimulus package II („Konjunkturpaket II“) do not only have short-term effects on demand but also long-term effects e.g. on local economic growth. As far as the short-term effects are concerned, the case of the German state of Saxony shows – with some delay – a rise in local government´s investments. Hence, the time-lag problem inherent in all governmental spending programmes seems to keep within reasonable limits. Up to now there have been no signs of inflationary price tendencies in the construction sector.
According to - for example - the „new“ economic growth theory, one ought to be sceptical about the long-term effects of the projects supported by the programme: Even for genuine public intermediate goods the withdrawal effects of financing have to be weighed against the positive effects on private enterprise sector productivity. Furthermore, the effects on factor prices caused by the investment grants might encourage the excess use of physical capital in public production.
This sceptical attitude of the theory is confirmed for Saxony by the fact that primarily public consumption goods (sports and leisure facilities) or educational facilities (kindergartens, primary schools), which are of no direct relevance to the local enterprises, are supported by the programme. Investments in vocational training, research and development play only a minor role at the local government level or are explicitly excluded from the programme.
Especially because of the incentives to misallocate public resources it is recommended to rely on unconditional grants in future support programmes. Then the local governments could use the grants for either „investments” in human capital (new [fixed-term contract] hires, qualification) or in physical capital, according to their needs.
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Business Networks in the Leipzig, Dresden, Chemnitz and Halle Regions: Do Member Firms Locate in Spatial Proximity?
Gerhard Heimpold
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
The business landscape in East Germany mainly consists of small and medium-sized firms. This in mind, business networks may contribute to an improvement of the economic performance of firms which collaborate in business networks. For successful networking a mix of network members being locally concentrated on the one side and of partners from distant regions, especially from abroad, on the other side, is important. In regional economics, this duality is highlighted for two reasons: personal contacts of partners which are located in spatial proximity to each other may ease the transfer of tacit knowledge. The flow of tacit knowledge can be regarded as a factor which enhances innovation processes. However, the inclusion of partners from abroad is important, too. It facilitates access to the most advanced knowledge and technologies worldwide. The academic debate on networking regards a one-sided orientation on the local dimension of networking as risky due to possible lock-in effects. The empirical findings for 93 business networks existing in the regions of Leipzig, Dresden, Chemnitz and Halle, which are located in the southern part of East Germany, reveal a great proportion of network members concentrated locally: On average, this is the case with more than 50% of the network members. 10% of members are located in the other three city regions mentioned. More than one third of firms are located outside, in other German regions, of which around the half in the states of Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt. A minority of 2% is located abroad. However, for the transfer of externally existing knowledge other network members may be relevant, too. To illustrate: More than four fifths of the networks under investigation include public research units (universities etc.) which usually play an important role when it comes to an inter-regional and international knowledge transfer.
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Change in East German Firm Level Export Determinants
Birgit Schultz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2010
Abstract
Exports have a ‘motor of growth’ status for the German economy. They both save and increase employment and provide wealth. However, only a minority of East German manufacturing and construction firms realize sales in foreign countries. The paper analyses for two points in time the influences of firm level export factors on the level of export activities of East German firms, and how the strength of the influence has changed over time. We found export sales especially in firms who are integrated in international corporate groups and are highly specialized. Economies of scale (firm size) increase the export share. Additionally, export sales also depend on wages. These findings are in line with current analysis in the field of international trade. While the above factors are found to be stable over time some others have changed in importance. In 2000 the industrial sector and the unit labor costs were important factors in determining export activities. In 2008 these factors have lost importance. Instead, human capital and investments have achieved significance.
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A Professor Like Me: The Influence of Instructor Gender on College Achievement
Florian Hoffmann, Philip Oreopoulos
Journal of Human Resources,
No. 2,
2009
Abstract
Many wonder whether teacher gender plays an important role in higher education by influencing student achievement and subject interest. The data used in this paper help identify average effects from male and female college students assigned to male or female teachers. We find instructor gender plays only a minor role in determining college student achievement. Nevertheless, the small effects provide evidence that gender role models matter to some college students. A same-sex instructor increases average grade performance by at most 5 percent of its standard deviation and decreases the likelihood of dropping a class by 1.2 percentage points.
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Urban Consolidation in Saxony a Thread for the Historic Districts?
Dominik Weiß
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2007
Abstract
Different lobby groups that fear a discrimination of the old and historic housing stock with its cultural value recently challenged the success of the urban renewal program „Stadtumbau Ost“. To make the discussion about it more objective, the subsidies for deconstruction and for improvement of the program are examined for the Free State of Saxony. The descriptive empirical analysis shows that the deconstruction of old houses mainly took place in cities with a higher share of old houses. Insofar, the danger of a total loss of the old housing stock may be low. Considering the allocation of the improvement subsidies, it can be shown that areas with old housing do profit relatively more, but not so often like the prefabricated socialist residential areas of the former GDR. The development of the historic housing stock, an explicit goal of the program “Stadtumbau Ost”, has been carried out in a minor degree in favour to the goal of housing market-adjustment.
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Das Programm „Stadtumbau Ost“ und seine wirtschaftlichen Effekte für die beteiligten Städte
Claus Michelsen, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2007
Abstract
Political measures in the field of urban development have relevant impacts on the local and regional economy, for example on private investment, the value of real estate or the image of a city. An evaluation of national (federal) programs for the support of urban development would not be complete without considering these impacts. For the measures, which are supported by the federal program for support on “Urban Redevelopment in East Germany” (“Stadtumbau Ost”), the economic conditions of the supported cities have played, so far, only a minor role. One expression for this is that the measures for demolishing (“Rückbau”) were concentrated on quarters with prefabricated buildings. From the perspective of local and regional economic development, there have also been failures in the allocation of money for increasing the value of real estate (“Aufwertung”), as the article shows for the example of the state of Saxony.
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The coalition treaty from a fiscal point of view
Kristina vanDeuverden
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2005
Abstract
After weeks of negotiations the coalition finally agreed on the conditions for their political work. Not surprisingly, the coalition agreement is complex and intransparent – with a multitude of single measures far away from a precise definition. Quantifying the programme and estimating resulting cash flows is currently difficult; official calculations are – if at all – only partly available. Anyhow, the contract will form the basis for economic policy during the next four years; therefore its evaluation by now is indispensable. The thin red line of the agreement – not astonishingly when considering the precarious financial situation of the public sector – is consolidation. However, more than 80% of the consolidation volume results from the revenue side. Though one third of this is due to the cutback of tax exemptions, the lion’s share comes from raising tax rates, mainly the VAT standard rate. In contrast, cutting back public expenditure is minor and the agreement clearly comes short of the Koch/Steinbrück proposal; even new tax reliefs are created. The consolidation is almost completely borne by private households. Enterprises as a whole are barely hit. However, they have to wait until 2008 for a reform of company taxation – one of the most pressing problems in this legislative period. To reduce the companies tax burden until the reform starts the conditions for tax depreciation are temporarily relaxed. Anyway, from an international point of view the statutory tax rate is an important signal to enterprises deciding where to invest. Lowering effective tax rates by changing depreciation conditions is intransparent and, thus, will be less effective. Furthermore savings within the public sector are planned to accomplish consolidation; 10 billion Euro should result from efficiency gains and reduced expenditure. Consolidation measures mainly focus on the budget of the federal government. However, Länder and communities will participate in the additional tax revenues. In contrast, social securities will loose – and therefore also the share of employment that is subject to social insurance contribution. Particularly the unemployment insurance will be burdened by the decrease of its premium rate. Besides, the federal government will reduce its grants to the pension funds and most notably the health system. The contract is dominated by fiscal constraints. Cyclical requirements are considered only cursory and pressing structural reforms are put off. The reforms of company’s taxation, of fiscal federalism, of the health system as well as a proceeding reform of the labour market are only proposed. How and when measures in these fields are realised will determine whether fiscal policy can set a new course.
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