Sinkendes Potenzialwachstum in Deutschland, beschleunigter Braunkohleausstieg und Klimapaket: Finanzpolitische Konsequenzen für die Jahre bis 2024
Andrej Drygalla, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner, Christoph Schult, Matthias Wieschemeyer, Götz Zeddies
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 4,
2019
Abstract
Nach der Mittelfristprojektion des IWH wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Deutschland in den Jahren bis 2024 preisbereinigt um durchschnittlich 1% wachsen; das nominale Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird um durchschnittlich 2¾% zunehmen. Die Durchschnittswerte verschleiern die Tatsache, dass das Wachstum gegen Ende des Projektionszeitraums aufgrund der dann rückläufigen Erwerbsbevölkerung spürbar zurückgehen wird. Dies wird sich auch bei den Staatseinnahmen niederschlagen. Allerdings wird die Bevölkerung nicht regional gleichverteilt zurückgehen. Strukturschwache Regionen dürften stärker betroffen sein. Die regionalen Effekte auf die Staatseinnahmen werden zwar durch Umverteilungsmechanismen abgefedert, aber nicht völlig ausgeglichen. Regionen mit schrumpfender Erwerbsbevölkerung müssen sich auf einen sinkenden finanziellen Spielraum einstellen. Der beschleunigte Braunkohleausstieg wird diesen Prozess verstärken, das Klimapaket der Bundesregierung hat hingegen vergleichsweise geringe Auswirkungen auf die öffentlichen Finanzen.
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12.12.2019 • 24/2019
Global economy slowly gains momentum – but Germany still stuck in a downturn
In 2020, the global economy is likely to benefit from the recent thaw in trade disputes. Germany’s manufacturing sector, however, will recover only slowly. “In 2020, the German economy will probably grow at a rate of 1.1%, and adjusted for the unusually high number of working days the growth rate will only be 0.7%”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president at Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). With an estimated growth rate of 1.3%, production in East Germany will outpace total German production growth.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Nowcasting East German GDP Growth: a MIDAS Approach
João Carlos Claudio, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller
Empirical Economics,
forthcoming
Abstract
Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account. Overall, we find that mixed-data sampling model forecasts for East German GDP in combination with model averaging outperform regional forecast models that only rely on aggregate national information.
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Industrial Cores in East Germany and Its Interaction with the Surrounding Territories—Findings from Four Case Studies
Gerhard Heimpold
List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik,
No. 2,
2019
Abstract
Subject to this article is how four cases of so called industrial cores have developed in East Germany since 1990. Industrial cores represent former state-owned firms which were regarded as economically viable by the Treuhand. But there was no chance to privatize them in the short run. The case studies show the development prior to and after privatization. A special focus is laid on the interaction between the respective firm and its spatial environment. To sum up: All four firms are still existent. They provide competitive goods and services. Nonetheless, the interaction with the surrounding region differs from case to case. There were spin-offs in all cases. Organizational units previously belonging to the former state owned firms were split up, and became independent firms. In addition, new firms were established. Partly the establishment of new firms was supported directly by—de facto—structural policy measures implemented by the core firms. Partly the new establishments were simply cases of co-location resulting from a prospering regional environment. Taking the four cases, urban areas obviously formed a particularly fertile economic environment.
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Structural Stability of the Research & Development Sector in European Economies Despite the Economic Crisis
Jutta Günther, Maria Kristalova, Udo Ludwig
Journal of Evolutionary Economics,
No. 5,
2019
Abstract
When an external shock such as the economic crisis in 2008/2009 occurs, the interconnectedness of sectors can be affected. This paper investigates whether the R&D sector experienced changes in its sectoral integration through the recession. Based on an input-output analysis, it can be shown that the linkages of the R&D sector with other sectors remain stable. In some countries, the inter-sectoral integration becomes even stronger. Policy makers can be encouraged to use public R&D spending as a means of fiscal policy against an economic crisis.
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The Regional Effects of a Place-based Policy – Causal Evidence from Germany
Matthias Brachert, Eva Dettmann, Mirko Titze
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
2019
Abstract
The German government provides discretionary investment grants to structurally weak regions in order to reduce regional inequality. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits an exogenous discrete jump in the probability of regional actors to receive investment grants to identify the causal effects of the policy. We find positive effects of the programme on district-level gross value-added and productivity growth, but no effects on employment and gross wage growth.
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Industry in Recession — Growth Forces Dwindle
Claus Michelsen, Oliver Holtemöller, Torsten Schmidt, Stefan Kooths, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst,
forthcoming
Abstract
The leading German economic research institutes have revised their economic forecast for Germany significantly downwards. The reasons for the weak development are the declining global demand for capital goods, which the German economy specialises in exporting, political uncertainty and structural changes in the automotive industry. Fiscal policy, on the other hand, is supporting macroeconomic expansion. Future development depends to a large extent on whether the trade conflicts can be resolved and how Brexit is structured.
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02.10.2019 • 21/2019
Thanks to robust domestic demand, the impact of the manufacturing sector on East Germany is less severe than in the west – Implications of the Autumn 2019 Joint Economic Forecast and official regional data for the eastern German economy
In its autumn report, the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group states that the German economy has cooled further in the current year. The manufacturing sector is the main reason for the economic weakness. This affects the economy in East Germany as well.
Oliver Holtemöller
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02.10.2019 • 20/2019
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2019: Economy Cools Further – Industry in Recession
Berlin, October 2, 2019 – Germany’s leading economics research institutes have revised their economic forecast for Germany significantly downward. Whereas in the spring they still expected gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.8% in 2019, they now expect GDP growth to be only 0.5%. Reasons for the poor performance are the falling worldwide demand for capital goods – in the exporting of which the Germany economy is specialised – as well as political uncertainty and structural changes in the automotive industry. By contrast, monetary policy is shoring up macroeconomic expansion. For the coming year, the economic researchers have also reduced their forecast of GDP growth to 1.1%, having predicted 1.8% in the spring.
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Fehlende Fachkräfte in Deutschland – Unterschiede in den Betrieben und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren: Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2018
Eva Dettmann, Daniel Fackler, Steffen Müller, Georg Neuschäffer, Viktor Slavtchev, Ute Leber, Barbara Schwengler
IAB-Forschungsbericht 10/2019,
2019
Abstract
In the years after the economic crisis, the economic situation of establishments in West and East Germany has improved steadily. At the same time, increased labor market dynamics and a positive trend in total employment can be observed. Also the demand for skilled employees reached a new high of 2.7 million in 2018. Only about 60 percent of the demand could be covered, which is also reflected in a further increase of the so-called non-occupancy quota. With regard to the distribution of this indicator for skilled labor shortages, we observe clear sector- and size-specific differences as well as regional heterogeneity. The quota is particularly high in the construction industry and in agriculture and forestry, with more than half the positions left vacant. A positive correlation between shortages of skilled labor and the use of temporary work, flexible working hours and investments in vocational training and further education is assessed in a multivariate analysis. The structure of formal occupational skill requirements did not change very much over recent years. However, a clear trend towards more flexible work organization can be observed. For example, about one quarter of the establishments offer teleworking. The share of part-time employment is also increasing nationwide, especially in sectors with a higher proportion of women, such as the service industries or the public sector. The share of marginal employment is particularly high in sectors that are characterized by cyclical and/or seasonal demand fluctuations or comparatively unspecific skill requirements – and above-average shortages of skilled labor. In 2018, the proportion of establishments authorized to provide in-house vocational training rose for the first time since 2010 – to 54 percent in Germany. In Eastern Germany, the share is significantly lower at 49 percent. The proportion of authorized establishments that actually train apprentices has been relatively stable at around 50 percent for several years. Both successfully occupied and vacant apprenticeships are distributed very heterogeneously across sectors. The recruitment rate of successful graduates is about three quarters. In establishments with skilled labor shortages, both the training rate and the graduate hiring rate are higher, suggesting that vocational training is already used here as an alternative strategy for recruiting skilled employees. The share of establishments supporting further education of their employees remains stable at about fifty percent for several years, and the proportion of employees participating in training is still about one third. A comparatively higher rate of further education among unskilled employees in establishments with skilled labor shortages indicates that internal resources are being increasingly used here to meet the demand for skilled employees.
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