Wer zahlt für das schöne Leben? Technische Infrastruktur in Zeiten von Bevölkerungsrückgang am Beispiel von drei ostdeutschen Mittelstädten
C. Deilmann, I. Kropp, Peter Haug
Tagungsband Arbeitskreis Stadterneuerung an deutschsprachigen Hochschulen,
2010
Abstract
In cities with decreasing population there is an increasing concern about the future cost of technical infrastructure. A diminishing number of inhabitants will have to bear the costs of the public services provided by their community. Beyond the pure cost arithmetic the main research question of our project was how urban planning can contribute to alleviating the rising average cost per service unit (cbm, sqm). The study was carried out for three medium-sized cities in the eastern part of Germany with a time horizon of 2030. The focus is on water, sewage and communal roads.
The rather surprising result was that urban planning (attempts for densification, inner city development instead of extensivation of the urban fabric) has little effect on long-term cost compared to the unavoidable yearly renovation requirements of the technical infrastructure. Because of the dominant block of fixed cost in technical infrastructure systems, the demographic development is the main cost determinant. Therefore, in future a massive problem in financing today’s standard of public services will be imminent.
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The Attractiveness of East Germany as Investment Location for Multinational Enterprises (MNEs)
Andrea Gauselmann, Björn Jindra
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2010
Abstract
The article analyses the general motives of MNEs for investment in East Germany as well as the quality of selected locational factors in East Germany from multinational affiliates’ point of view. In contrast to existing studies for East Germany the article dedicates particular attention to the role of MNEs’ heterogeneity. The research draws from the third survey of the IWH FDI-Micro database in 2009, which offers a representative sample of multinational affiliates of the East German economy. The results show a fundamental shift in the relative importance of investment motives during the transition process of East Germany. Since the mid 1990s East Germany attracts increasingly investors that target economies of scope of local technological advantage rather than low-cost advantages of local production factors as the case in the early transition period. It can be demonstrated that the investment motives depends on the country of origin, the type and timing of market entry as well as the sector of the multinational affiliate. Amongst the given locational factors affiliates value the quality of the socio-cultural context highest. This group of soft factors is followed by locational aspects related the potential for technological cooperation, the availability of labour, and finally the extent of fiscal and financial incentives. There exist significant differences in the judgment about quality of different locational aspects depending on the country of origin and the underlying investment motive. Finally the article identifies possible policy measures in the area of skilled labour, technology and investment policy in order to sustain the attractiveness of East Germany as investment location in the future.
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Change in East German Firm Level Export Determinants
Birgit Schultz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2010
Abstract
Exports have a ‘motor of growth’ status for the German economy. They both save and increase employment and provide wealth. However, only a minority of East German manufacturing and construction firms realize sales in foreign countries. The paper analyses for two points in time the influences of firm level export factors on the level of export activities of East German firms, and how the strength of the influence has changed over time. We found export sales especially in firms who are integrated in international corporate groups and are highly specialized. Economies of scale (firm size) increase the export share. Additionally, export sales also depend on wages. These findings are in line with current analysis in the field of international trade. While the above factors are found to be stable over time some others have changed in importance. In 2000 the industrial sector and the unit labor costs were important factors in determining export activities. In 2008 these factors have lost importance. Instead, human capital and investments have achieved significance.
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Germany’s Production of Export Goods: Human Capital Content Slightly Exceeds that of Imports
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2009
Abstract
In the decade before the present, world financial crisis exports out of Germany expanded enormously. This was caused by the growing world demand as well as the internationalization of the national production processes and favoured by the improving price competitiveness. At the same time, against the background of the tertiarisation of the economy, the qualification of employees has increased considerably. In our study, we investigate the changes of labour quality in the production of export goods using the standard open input-output model. Hereby, labour input is measured in terms of different formal qualification levels of the employees. The results are compared with the labour input for imported goods. We find out that the input of high qualified labour per unit of produced export goods exceeds only marginally the comparable input value of the imports. It should be mentioned that the comparison is strongly influenced by the assumption of identical production functions for both Germany and its trading partners.
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The Gender Pay Gap under Duopsony: Joan Robinson meets Harold Hotelling
Boris Hirsch
Scottish Journal of Political Economy,
No. 5,
2009
Abstract
This paper presents an alternative explanation of the gender pay gap resting on a simple Hotelling-style duopsony model of the labour market. Since there are only two employers, equally productive women and men have to commute and face travel cost to do so. We assume that some women have higher travel cost, e.g., due to more domestic responsibilities. Employers exploit that women on average are less inclined to commute and offer lower wages to all women. Since women's firm-level labour supply is for this reason less wage-elastic, this model is in line with Robinson's explanation of wage discrimination.
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Is the European Monetary Union an Endogenous Currency Area? The Example of the Labor Markets
Herbert S. Buscher, Hubert Gabrisch
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 7,
2009
Abstract
Our study tries to find out whether wage dynamics between Euro member countries became more synchronized through the adoption of the common currency. We calculate bivarate correlation coefficients of wage and wage cost dynamics and run a model of endogenously induced changes of coefficients, which are explained by other variables being also endogenous: trade intensity, sectoral specialization, financial integration. We used a panel data structure to allow for cross-section weights for country-pair observations. We use instrumental variable regressions in order to disentangle exogenous from endogenous influences. We applied these techniques to real and nominal wage dynamics and to dynamics of unit labor costs. We found evidence for persistent asymmetries in nominal wage formation despite a single currency and monetary policy, responsible for diverging unit labor costs and for emerging trade imbalances among the EMU member countries.
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The Achilles Heel of the EMU: The Labour Markets
Hubert Gabrisch
One-off Publications,
No. 1,
2008
Abstract
Recent diverging labour cost developments among EMU countries, affecting the trade and inflation position of each country, raise some doubts regarding the equal distribution of costs and benefits of shocks among the member countries and, hence, the long term stability of the Euro.
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Business cycle forecast 2008: German upswing takes a break
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2008
Abstract
Economic growth in the industrial countries will be much more muted in 2008 than in the past year. One cause is the prolonged oil price hike during 2007. The second and more important cause is the intensification of tensions on world financial markets. Due to problems in the financial sector, credit expansion will slow next year in the euro area as well as in the US. This will dampen demand in the real economy. A significant downswing in the industrial countries, however, is not the most likely scenario: in the US, expansive economic policy and a weak dollar that gives production in the US a competitive edge will prevent the economy from sliding into recession. In the euro area, high profitability of firms and structural improvements in the working of labour markets will help the economy cope with the stronger euro and with higher costs of external financing due to the turmoil in the financial sector. In Germany, the upswing has still not reached the demand of private households. The main reason is that real wages were stagnating in 2007 and will not rise by much in 2008, since inflation has accelerated considerably at the end of last year. In addition, weaker dynamics of external demand will dampen export growth. This and the end of tax incentives for investment at the end of 2007 will dampen investment activity. All in all, the economy will slow down in the first half of 2008. However, chances are good that the upswing will only have taken a break: when the dampening external shocks have ceased, the driving powers of the upswing will prevail; dynamic employment growth is a reflection of the strong confidence of firms. A major risk for employment and for the German economy in general is, however, the possibility that the policy concerning the labour markets changes course; bad omens are the recent the introduction of minimum wages for postal services and the announced extension of unemployment benefits for persons older than 50.
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Poland: Strong Domestic Demand Will Drive Economic Activity
Martina Kämpfe
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2007
Abstract
Domestic demand was the main force behind growth in 2007. The high level of both, gross fixed investments of firms and private consumption, led to extended industrial production capacities and increased demand of imports. Extraordinarily high was the demand for the output of construction firms. Rising employment and wages and the continuing expansion of loans to the household sector supported the private consumption growth. The high levels of capacity utilization coincide with shortages of labour. First responses to this were wage hikes, which pushed the unit labour costs and led to some increase in consumer price inflation. In 2008, expansion of economic activity will continue at only some lower level, driven by investments and consumption.
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The German Upswing Takes a Break
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
2. Sonderausgabe
2007
Abstract
The world economy continues to expand healthily, but risks have increased during summer. The crisis of the housing sector in the US has deepened: A revaluation of mortgage backed assets has triggered turbulences on global financial markets. The institutes expect that financial markets will calm down during the coming months, but that the downswing in the US will slow the pace of the world economy. The economy in the euro area will, in addition, be dampened by the appreciation of the euro. The German economy is, in spite of a restrictive fiscal policy, in a robust upswing. Because wage setting and inflation continues to be moderate, there will be no need for a restrictive monetary policy. Thus the German economy will, due to slower demand from the US and higher costs of financing, lose momentum, but chances are good that the upswing will only take a break. In the coming year private consumption is expected to be the main contributor to growth, because wage incomes will expand strongly. Unemployment will continue to shrink, albeit at a smaller rate than during 2007. Fiscal policy will no longer be restrictive. Economic policy has improved the conditions for growth in Germany; there is, however, still much to do. Public finances have to be consolidated further, but at the same time, public investment has to be strengthened. This can be achieved if public consumptive expenditure growth is limited. The institutes suggest to increase public expenditure by 2% per annum over the cycle in nominal terms; this is, by less than by the trend growth rate of nominal GDP.
The institutes advise against a reversal of the recent labour market reforms. Instead, incentives for taking up jobs should be increased further.
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