IWH Spring Forecast 2020
Global Economy Under the Spell of the Coronavirus Epidemic
Halle (Saale), March 12, 2020
The epidemic is obstructing the economic recovery in Germany. Foreign demand is falling, private households forgo domestic consumption if it comes with infection risk, and investments are postponed. Assuming that the spread of the disease can be contained in short time, GDP growth in 2020 is expected to be 0.6% according to IWH spring economic forecast. Growth in East Germany is expected to be 1% and thus higher than in West Germany. If the number of new infections cannot be decreased in short time, we expect a recession in Germany.