Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2015: Deutsche Konjunktur stabil – Wachstumspotenziale heben
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 5,
2015
Abstract
Die Weltproduktion dürfte im Herbst 2015 wie schon in der ersten Jahreshälfte nur in mäßigem Tempo expandieren. Die im Frühjahr erwartete Beschleunigung ist also ausgeblieben. Akzentuiert haben sich die bereits seit 2014 beobachteten Unterschiede zwischen den Regionen. In den meisten fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften ist die Konjunktur recht robust. In einer Reihe von Schwellenländern hat sich die Wirtschaftslage hingegen nochmals verschlechtert. Insbesondere häufen sich Anzeichen einer Verschärfung der Probleme in China.
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Aktuelle Trends: Mindestlohnbetroffenheit – Besonders starker Rückgang geringfügiger Beschäftigung in den Neuen Bundesländern
Oliver Holtemöller, Felix Pohle
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 5,
2015
Abstract
Viele Ökonomen haben prognostiziert, dass die Anzahl der geringfügigen Beschäftigungs- verhältnisse (Minijobs) als Folge des flächendeckenden gesetzlichen Mindestlohns deutlich zurückgehen wird. Tatsächlich hat sich die Anzahl der gewerblichen Minijobs im Juni 2015 um ca. 190 000 Beschäftigungsverhältnisse gegenüber dem Vorjahr reduziert; dies entspricht einem Rückgang um 2,7%.
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Sovereign Credit Risk Co-movements in the Eurozone: Simple Interdependence or Contagion?
Manuel Buchholz, Lena Tonzer
UniCredit & Universities Foundation, Working Paper Series No. 47,
Nr. 47,
2013
publiziert in: International Finance
Abstract
We investigate credit risk co-movements and contagion in sovereign debt markets of 17 industrialized countries for the period 2008-2012. We use dynamic conditional correlations of sovereign CDS spreads to detect contagion. This approach allows separating the channels through which contagion occurs from the determinants of simple interdependence. The results show that, first, sovereign credit risk comoves considerably, in particular among eurozone countries and during the sovereign debt crisis. Second, contagion cannot be attributed to one moment in time but varies across time and countries. Third, similarities in economic fundamentals, cross-country linkages in banking, and common market sentiment constitute the main channels of contagion.
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Hidden Gems and Borrowers with Dirty Little Secrets: Investment in Soft Information, Borrower Self-Selection and Competition
Reint E. Gropp, C. Gruendl, Andre Guettler
Abstract
This paper empirically examines the role of soft information in the competitive interaction between relationship and transaction banks. Soft information can be interpreted as a private signal about the quality of a firm that is observable to a relationship bank, but not to a transaction bank. We show that borrowers self-select to relationship banks depending on whether their privately observed soft information is positive or negative. Competition affects the investment in learning the private signal from firms by relationship banks and transaction banks asymmetrically. Relationship banks invest more; transaction banks invest less in soft information, exacerbating the selection effect. Finally, we show that firms where soft information was important in the lending decision were no more likely to default compared to firms where only financial information was used.
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Banking Market Competition, Opaque Firms, and the Reallocation Component of Aggregate Growth
R. Inklaar, Michael Koetter, Felix Noth
Abstract
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Passungsprobleme am Arbeitsmarkt: Zwischen Fachkräftemangel und unterwertiger Beschäftigung – Bericht vom 12. IWH/IAB-Workshop zur Arbeitsmarktpolitik
B. Christoph, N. Kracke, Ute Leber, Birgit Schultz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 5,
2015
Abstract
Beim zwölften gemeinsamen Workshop des Leibniz-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) und des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) trafen sich am 12. und 13. Oktober 2015 Vertreterinnen und Vertreter aus Wissenschaft, Politik, Verwaltung und Wirtschaft, um über die fehlende Passung zwischen Arbeitsplatzerfordernissen und verfügbaren Qualifikationen der Arbeitnehmer zu diskutieren.
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How Does Industry Specialization Affect the Efficiency of Regional Innovation Systems?
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Annals of Regional Science,
Nr. 1,
2010
Abstract
This study analyzes the relationship between the specialization of a region in certain industries and the efficiency of the region in generating new knowledge. The efficiency measure is constructed by relating regional R&D input and output. An inversely u-shaped relationship is found between regional specialization and R&D efficiency, indicating the presence of externalities of both Marshall and Jacobs’ type. Further factors influencing efficiency are externalities resulting from high R&D intensity of the local private sector as well as knowledge from local public research institutions. The impact of both the specialization and the additional factors is, however, different for regions at different efficiency levels.
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International Bank Portfolios: Short- and Long-run Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions
S. Blank, Claudia M. Buch
Review of International Economics,
Nr. 2,
2010
Abstract
International bank portfolios constitute a large component of international country portfolios. Yet, banks’ response to international macroeconomic conditions remains largely unexplored.We use a novel dataset on banks’ international portfolios to answer three questions. First, what are the long-run determinants of banks’ international portfolios? Second, how do banks’ international portfolios adjust to short-run macroeconomic developments? Third, does the speed of adjustment change with the degree of financial integration?We find that, in the long-run, market size has a positive impact on foreign assets and liabilities. An increase in the interest differential between the home and the foreign economy lowers foreign assets and increases foreign liabilities. Foreign trade has a positive impact on international bank portfolios, which is independent from the effect of other macroeconomic variables. Short-run dynamics show heterogeneity across countries, but these dynamics can partly be explained with gravity-type variables.
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Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective
Bernd Aumann, Rolf Scheufele
Post-Communist Economies,
2010
Abstract
This article assesses whether the economy of East Germany is catching up with the West German region in terms of welfare. While the primary measure for convergence and catching up is per capita output, we also look at other macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment rates, wage rates and production levels in the manufacturing sector. In contrast to existing studies of convergence between regions of the reunified Germany, our approach is based purely upon the time series dimension and is thus directly focused on the catching up process in East Germany as a region. Our testing set-up includes standard ADF unit root tests as well as unit root tests that endogenously allow for a break in the deterministic component of the process. We find evidence of catching up for East Germany for most of the indicators. However, the convergence speed is slow, and thus it can be expected that the catching up process will take further decades until the regional gap is closed.
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