Determinants of the Size of the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Market
Tobias Berg, Daniel Streitz
Journal of Fixed Income,
Nr. 3,
2016
Abstract
We analyze the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) market for 57 countries, using a novel dataset comprising weekly positions and turnover data. We document that CDS markets—measured relative to a country’s debt—are larger for smaller countries, countries with a rating just above the investment-grade cutoff, and countries with weaker creditor rights. Analyzing changes in credit risk, we find that rating changes matter but only for negative rating events (downgrades and negative outlooks). In particular, weeks with downgrades and negative outlooks are associated with a significantly higher turnover in the sovereign CDS market, even after controlling for changes in sovereign CDS spreads. We conclude that agencies’ ratings are a major determinant of the size of the sovereign CDS market.
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Hold-up and the Use of Performance-sensitive Debt
Tim R. Adam, Daniel Streitz
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
April
2016
Abstract
We examine whether performance-sensitive debt (PSD) is used to reduce hold-up problems in long-term lending relationships. We find that the use of PSD is more common in the presence of a long-term lending relationship and if the borrower has fewer financing alternatives available. In syndicated deals, however, the presence of a relationship lead arranger reduces the use of PSD because a lead arranger has little incentive to hold-up a client. Further supporting the hypothesis that hold-up concerns motivate the use of PSD, we find a substitution effect between the use of PSD and the tightness of financial covenants.
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The Impact of Credit Default Swap Trading on Loan Syndication
Daniel Streitz
Review of Finance,
Nr. 1,
2016
Abstract
We analyze the impact of credit default swap (CDS) trading on bank syndication activity. Theoretically, the effect of CDS trading is ambiguous: on the one hand, CDS can improve risk-sharing and hence be a more flexible risk management tool than loan syndication; on the other hand, CDS trading can reduce bank monitoring incentives. We document that banks are less likely to syndicate loans and retain a larger loan fraction once CDS are actively traded on the borrower’s debt. We then discern the risk management and the moral hazard channel. We find no evidence that the reduced likelihood to syndicate loans is a result of increased moral hazard problems.
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IWH-Flash-Indikator I. Quartal und II. Quartal 2023
Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner, Birgit Schultz
IWH-Flash-Indikator,
Nr. 1,
2023
Abstract
Im vierten Quartal 2022 ging die Wirtschaftsleistung in Deutschland um 0,2% zurück. Insbesondere die privaten Haushalte erfüllten sich aufgrund der hohen Inflation weniger Konsumwünsche als noch im Quartal zuvor. Die Unterstützung seitens des Staates bei den hohen Energiepreisen federn die gestiegenen Lebenshaltungskosten der privaten Haushalte nur teilweise ab. Diese Kaufkraftverluste werden die Konsumenten wohl noch einige Zeit belasten. Die Unternehmen wurden hingegen bereits von den gesunkenen Beschaffungskosten auf den Weltmärkten etwas entlastet, und auch die Lieferkettenprobleme gingen zuletzt zurück. Allerdings trüben zahlreiche Krisenherde weltweit die Aussichten der deutschen Wirtschaft erneut ein. Zwar kommt es laut IWH-Flash-Indikator im ersten Quartal 2023 zu einer kurzen vorübergehenden Aufhellung, und die deutsche Wirtschaft legt um 0,5% zu. Jedoch schon im zweiten Quartal dürfte sich der Abwärtstrend mit einem Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) um 0,3% fortsetzen (vgl. Abbildung 1).
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Measuring the Impact of Household Innovation using Administrative Data
Javier Miranda, Nikolas Zolas
NBER Working Paper,
Nr. 25259,
2018
Abstract
We link USPTO patent data to U.S. Census Bureau administrative records on individuals and firms. The combined dataset provides us with a directory of patenting household inventors as well as a time-series directory of self-employed businesses tied to household innovations. We describe the characteristics of household inventors by race, age, gender and U.S. origin, as well as the types of patented innovations pursued by these inventors. Business data allows us to highlight how patents shape the early life-cycle dynamics of nonemployer businesses. We find household innovators are disproportionately U.S. born, white and their age distribution has thicker tails relative to business innovators. Data shows there is a deficit of female and black inventors. Household inventors tend to work in consumer product areas compared to traditional business patents. While patented household innovations do not have the same impact of business innovations their uniqueness and impact remains surprisingly high. Back of the envelope calculations suggest patented household innovations granted between 2000 and 2011 might generate $5.0B in revenue (2000 dollars).
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How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size
Teresa C. Fort, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, Javier Miranda
IMF Economic Review,
Nr. 3,
2013
Abstract
There remains considerable debate in the theoretical and empirical literature about the differences in the cyclical dynamics of firms by firm size. This paper contributes to the debate in two ways. First, the key distinction between firm size and firm age is introduced. The evidence presented in this paper shows that young businesses (that are typically small) exhibit very different cyclical dynamics than small/older businesses. The second contribution is to present evidence and explore explanations for the finding that young/small businesses were hit especially hard in the Great Recession. The collapse in housing prices accounts for a significant part of the large decline of young/small businesses in the Great Recession.
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Private Equity, Jobs, and Productivity
Steven J. Davis, John Haltiwanger, Kyle Handley, Ron S. Jarmin, Josh Lerner, Javier Miranda
American Economic Review,
Nr. 12,
2014
Abstract
Private equity critics claim that leveraged buyouts bring huge job losses and few gains in operating performance. To evaluate these claims, we construct and analyze a new dataset that covers US buyouts from 1980 to 2005. We track 3,200 target firms and their 150,000 establishments before and after acquisition, comparing to controls defined by industry, size, age, and prior growth. Buyouts lead to modest net job losses but large increases in gross job creation and destruction. Buyouts also bring TFP gains at target firms, mainly through accelerated exit of less productive establishments and greater entry of highly productive ones.
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Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young
John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, Javier Miranda
Review of Economics and Statistics,
Nr. 2,
2013
Abstract
The view that small businesses create the most jobs remains appealing to policymakers and small business advocates. Using data from the Census Bureau's Business Dynamics Statistics and Longitudinal Business Database, we explore the many issues at the core of this ongoing debate. We find that the relationship between firm size and employment growth is sensitive to these issues. However, our main finding is that once we control for firm age, there is no systematic relationship between firm size and growth. Our findings highlight the important role of business start-ups and young businesses in U.S. job creation.
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Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship
Pierre Azoulay, Benjamin Jones, J. Daniel Kim, Javier Miranda
American Economic Review: Insights,
Nr. 1,
2020
Abstract
Many observers, and many investors, believe that young people are especially likely to produce the most successful new firms. Integrating administrative data on firms, workers, and owners, we study start-ups systematically in the United States and find that successful entrepreneurs are middle-aged, not young. The mean age at founding for the 1-in-1,000 fastest growing new ventures is 45.0. The findings are similar when considering high-technology sectors, entrepreneurial hubs, and successful firm exits. Prior experience in the specific industry predicts much greater rates of entrepreneurial success. These findings strongly reject common hypotheses that emphasize youth as a key trait of successful entrepreneurs.
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Labor Market Analysis and Public Policy: The Case of Morocco
Guillermo Hakim, Julia Lane, Javier Miranda
World Bank Economic Review,
Nr. 3,
1999
Abstract
This article uses detailed industry and household data to understand why Morocco's labor market performed poorly in 1985–95. The data indicate that marked structural changes and weak demand in the product market were responsible. This article makes two contributions to the literature. The first is specific: it underscores that the demand for labor is a derived demand and that the performance of the product market is an important determinant of the performance of the labor market. The second is more general: it demonstrates that this kind of microeconomic analysis, using data sets that are often available in developing countries, can inform policy design.
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