This Technical Report documents the construction and coverage of the IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI). Since 2018, we have used machine-learning methods to collect monthly listings of residential real estate available for sale or rent in up to 20 European countries. The Technical Report documents the cleaning and selection process and describes the data regarding coverage, moments, and frequencies to construct the EREI.

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the forecastability of the real price of natural gas in the United States at the monthly frequency considering a universe of models that differ in their complexity and economic content. Our key finding is that considerable reductions in mean-squared prediction error relative to a random walk benchmark can be achieved in real time for forecast horizons of up to two years. A particularly promising model is a six-variable Bayesian vector autoregressive model that includes the fundamental determinants of the supply and demand for natural gas. To capture real-time data constraints of these and other predictor variables, we assemble a rich database of historical vintages from multiple sources. We also compare our model-based forecasts to readily available model-free forecasts provided by experts and futures markets. Given that no single forecasting method dominates all others, we explore the usefulness of pooling forecasts and find that combining forecasts from individual models selected in real time based on their most recent performance delivers the most accurate forecasts.

Seit dem Atomausstieg am 15. April 2023 sind die Großhandelsstrompreise in Deutschland deutlich gesunken. Innerhalb des deutschen Merit-Order-Systems galten Atomkraftwerke als die kostengünstigste Form der Stromerzeugung. Hätten die Atomkraftwerke weiterbetrieben werden können, wären die Großhandelsstrompreise für den Zeitraum vom 16. April 2023 bis zum 31. Dezember 2023 voraussichtlich um 1% bis 8% niedriger gewesen. Insbesondere im Oktober hätte der Weiterbetrieb der Atomkraftwerke die Großhandelsstrompreise gesenkt, vor allem in Zeiten hoher Stromnachfrage und geringer Verfügbarkeit erneuerbarer Energien.