Benign Neglect of Covenant Violations: Blissful Banking or Ignorant Monitoring?
Stefano Colonnello, Michael Koetter, Moritz Stieglitz
Abstract
Theoretically, bank‘s loan monitoring activity hinges critically on its capitalisation. To proxy for monitoring intensity, we use changes in borrowers‘ investment following loan covenant violations, when creditors can intervene in the governance of the firm. Exploiting granular bank-firm relationships observed in the syndicated loan market, we document substantial heterogeneity in monitoring across banks and through time. Better capitalised banks are more lenient monitors that intervene less with covenant violators. Importantly, this hands-off approach is associated with improved borrowers‘ performance. Beyond enhancing financial resilience, regulation that requires banks to hold more capital may thus also mitigate the tightening of credit terms when firms experience shocks.
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An Evaluation of Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises: Does Machine Learning Improve Predictions?
Johannes Beutel, Sophia List, Gregor von Schweinitz
Abstract
This paper compares the out-of-sample predictive performance of different early warning models for systemic banking crises using a sample of advanced economies covering the past 45 years. We compare a benchmark logit approach to several machine learning approaches recently proposed in the literature. We find that while machine learning methods often attain a very high in-sample fit, they are outperformed by the logit approach in recursive out-of-sample evaluations. This result is robust to the choice of performance measure, crisis definition, preference parameter, and sample length, as well as to using different sets of variables and data transformations. Thus, our paper suggests that further enhancements to machine learning early warning models are needed before they are able to offer a substantial value-added for predicting systemic banking crises. Conventional logit models appear to use the available information already fairly effciently, and would for instance have been able to predict the 2007/2008 financial crisis out-of-sample for many countries. In line with economic intuition, these models identify credit expansions, asset price booms and external imbalances as key predictors of systemic banking crises.
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Accounting Quality in Banking: The Role of Regulatory Interventions
Manthos D. Delis, Iftekhar Hasan, Maria Iosifidi, Lingxiang Li
Journal of Banking and Finance,
2018
Abstract
Using the full sample of U.S. banks and hand-collected data on enforcement actions over 2000–2014, we analyze the role of these interventions in promoting several aspects of accounting quality. We find that enforcement actions issued for both risk-related and accounting-related reasons lead to significant improvements in accounting quality. This improvement is consistently found for earnings smoothing, big-bath accounting, timely recognition of future loan losses, the association of loan loss provisions with future loan charge offs, loss avoidance, and cash flow predictability and earnings persistence. Most of the effects are somewhat more potent in the crisis period and survive in several sensitivity tests. Our findings highlight the imperative role of regulatory interventions in promoting bank accounting quality.
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27.09.2018 • 19/2018
Aufschwung in Ostdeutschland setzt sich verlangsamt fort – Implikationen der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2018 und amtlicher Daten für die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft im ersten Halbjahr 2018
Für das Jahr 2018 prognostiziert das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) einen Anstieg des ostdeutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 1,5% (Gemeinschaftsdiagnose für Deutschland insgesamt 1,7%). Auch im Jahr 2019 dürfte die Zuwachsrate in Ostdeutschland mit 1,7% unter derjenigen in Deutschland insgesamt (1,9%) liegen.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Crowdsourced Innovation: How Community Managers Affect Crowd Activities
Sabrina Jeworrek, Lars Hornuf
Abstract
In this study, we investigate whether and to what extent community managers in online collaborative communities can stimulate crowd activities through their engagement. Using a novel data set of 22 large online idea crowdsourcing campaigns, we find that active engagement of community managers positively affects crowd activities in an inverted U-shaped manner. Moreover, we evidence that intellectual stimulation by managers increases community participation, while individual consideration of users has no impact on user activities. Finally, the data reveal that community manager activities that require more effort, such as media file uploads instead of simple written comments, have a larger effect on crowd participation.
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On DSGE Models
Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Mathias Trabandt
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
Nr. 3,
2018
Abstract
The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how to assess the relative strength of those forces. Economists have a range of tools that can be used to make such assessments. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading tool for making such assessments in an open and transparent manner. We review the state of mainstream DSGE models before the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We then describe how DSGE models are estimated and evaluated. We address the question of why DSGE modelers—like most other economists and policymakers—failed to predict the financial crisis and the Great Recession, and how DSGE modelers responded to the financial crisis and its aftermath. We discuss how current DSGE models are actually used by policymakers. We then provide a brief response to some criticisms of DSGE models, with special emphasis on criticism by Joseph Stiglitz, and offer some concluding remarks.
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02.05.2018 • 10/2018
IWH Policy Talk „Think global – Internationalisierung als Hochschulpolitik.“ Karamba Diaby, MdB, zu Gast am IWH
Das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) lädt am Dienstag, dem 8. Mai 2018, um 17:00 Uhr zu einem IWH Policy Talk zum Thema „Think global – Internationalisierung als Hochschulpolitik“ mit Karamba Diaby, Mitglied des Deutschen Bundestags, in den Konferenzsaal des Instituts ein.
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Do Startups Provide Employment Opportunities for Disadvantaged Workers?
Daniel Fackler, Michaela Fuchs, Lisa Hölscher, Claus Schnabel
IZA Discussion Paper Series,
im Erscheinen
Abstract
This paper analyzes whether startups offer job opportunities to workers potentially facing labor market problems. It compares the hiring patterns of startups and incumbents in the period 2003 to 2014 using administrative linked employer-employee data for Germany that allow to take the complete employment biographies of newly hired workers into account. The results indicate that young plants are more likely than incumbents to hire older and foreign applicants as well as workers who have instable employment biographies, come from unemployment or outside the labor force, or were affected by a plant closure. However, an analysis of entry wages reveals that disadvantageous worker characteristics come along with higher wage penalties in startups than in incumbents. Therefore, even if startups provide employment opportunities for certain groups of disadvantaged workers, the quality of these jobs in terms of initial remuneration seems to be low.
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Public Investment Subsidies and Firm Performance – Evidence from Germany
Matthias Brachert, Eva Dettmann, Mirko Titze
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik,
Nr. 2,
2018
Abstract
This paper assesses firm-level effects of the single largest investment subsidy programme in Germany. The analysis considers grants allocated to firms in East German regions over the period 2007 to 2013 under the regional policy scheme Joint Task ‘Improving Regional Economic Structures’ (GRW). We apply a coarsened exact matching (CEM) in combination with a fixed effects difference-in-differences (FEDiD) estimator to identify the effects of programme participation on the treated firms. For the assessment, we use administrative data from the Federal Statistical Office and the Offices of the Länder to demonstrate that this administrative database offers a huge potential for evidence-based policy advice. The results suggest that investment subsidies have a positive impact on different dimensions of firm development, but do not affect overall firm competitiveness. We find positive short- and medium-run effects on firm employment. The effects on firm turnover remain significant and positive only in the medium-run. Gross fixed capital formation responses positively to GRW funding only during the mean implementation period of the projects but becomes insignificant afterwards. Finally, the effect of GRW-funding on labour productivity remains insignificant throughout the whole period of analysis.
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