14:15 - 15:45
Hegemonic Globalization
How does the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of “hegemonic globalization” built on two premises: countries have heterogeneous policy preferences, and trade expands with policy alignment.
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Alberto Martin is a senior researcher with research interests in the fields of financial markets, international economics and macroeconomic theory.
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How does the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of “hegemonic globalization” built on two premises: countries have heterogeneous policy preferences, and trade expands with policy alignment. Hegemons foster alignment, enabling globalization, while a shift to multipolarity risks fragmentation, at the expense of the declining hegemon and its allies. Empirically, we use international treaties as a proxy of alignment and construct the Global Treaty Database, covering 77,000 agreements from 1800–2020. The evidence supports the key elements of our theory: hegemons spur treaty-making, and treaties are a leading indicator of bilateral trade.
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