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Was taugt der Investitionsbooster?Reint GroppDer Spiegel, 23. Juni 2025
In turbulenten Zeiten, die von anhaltenden geopolitischen Krisen, dem holprigen Regierungswechsel in Deutschland und volatilen Aktienmärkten geprägt sind, mögen die eine oder der andere Investor auf Betongold setzen. Ob dies eine gute Idee ist, zeigt ein Blick auf die Dynamik im europäischen Häusermarkt.
Bürokratie und eine Verkleinerung des Staates sind schon seit Jahren in aller Munde. Bürokratieabbau war in den Wahlprogrammen aller deutschen Parteien zur letzten Bundestagswahl zu finden. Wenn Unternehmen gefragt werden, was sie davon abhält zu investieren, rangieren überbordende Bürokratie und Berichtspflichten zusammen mit Arbeitskräftemangel und hohen Energiekosten an erster Stelle.
Wissenschaft lebt vom Austausch kluger Köpfe über Grenzen hinweg. IWH-Ökonom Simon Wiederhold hat vier Wochen an der Stanford University geforscht. Einblicke in eine höchst anregende Erfahrung.
Die wirtschaftliche Transformation verändert die Arbeitswelt spürbar. Am IWH wird die Abteilung Strukturwandel und Produktivität diese Umbrüche künftig noch intensiver untersuchen und sich damit selbst verändern. Eine hochkarätige Konferenz nach besonderen Spielregeln gab dafür einen kräftigen Schub.
In this study, establishment-level employment effects of investment grants in Germany are estimated. In addition to the quantitative effects, I provide empirical evidence of funding effects on different aspects of employment quality (earnings, qualifications, and job security) for the period 2004 to 2020. The database combines project-level treatment data, establishment-level information on firm characteristics and employee structure, and regional information at the district-level. For the estimations, I combine the difference-in-differences approach of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) with ties matching at the cohort level. The estimations yield positive effects on the number of employees, but point to contradicting effects of investment grants on different aspects of employment quality.
Is there a multicultural neighborhood price premium? We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in British colonization patterns in Northern Ireland during the early 1600s which created neighborhoods of varying religious composition that persists until today. These religious groups are culturally distinct, but are observationally equivalent ethnically and socioeconomically. A standard deviation increase neighborhood-level multiculturalism raises house prices by 9.6%. Multiculturalism raises property prices by increasing asset liquidity and housing demand as a wider spectrum of society demand houses in these areas. The findings and mechanism contrast sharply with prior evidence showing negative relationships due to homophily, social networks, and identification challenges.
Using the universe of high school and college admissions data in Croatia, we geocoded nearly half a million students’ residential addresses to investigate how their college and major choices are influenced by older neighbors and peers. Using an RDD to exploit time and program variation in admission cutoffs, we find that having an older neighbor who was admitted to and enrolled in a program increases a student’s probability of applying to the program by about 20%. We find that this effect consistently holds only for the closest neighbors, both in terms of distance and age difference. Female students are more likely to be influenced by older neighbors’ choices, and male older neighbors’ admission has a larger impact on both male and female students compared to female older neighbors. The effect is stronger if the student-neighbor pair lives in a region that does not have its own university, implying that the value of information in rural areas is higher. We find evidence that students don’t follow their older neighbors to less competitive programs; instead, they are more likely to apply for the same programs their older neighbors were admitted to when the program is more prestigious. Next, we utilize the variation in weight scheme of Croatia’s college study programs to show evidence, beyond college choices, of how older neighbors affect the human capital formation of their younger peers. The main channel through which we observe this effect is during high school, through specialization in the subjects needed to gain admittance to older neighbors’ college programs. These findings shed light on the intricate dynamics shaping educational decisions and underscores the significant role older neighbors play in guiding younger peers toward specific academic pathways.
How do beliefs on admission probability influence application choices? In this study, we empirically investigate whether and how admission probability is reflected in application choices in a centralized admission system. We exploit a novel setting of a dynamic deferred acceptance mechanism as employed in Croatia with hourly information updates and simultaneous application choices. This setting allows us to explore within-applicant strategic adjustments as a reaction to changing signals on admission probability. We show in an RDD analysis that applicants react to negative signals on admission probability with an increased propensity to adjust their application choices by 11-23%. Additionally, we show how application strategies evolve over time, while applicants learn about their admission probability. The group most-at-risk to remain unmatched improves their application choices by applying to programs with a higher admission probability towards the application deadline. Yet, we also identify a popular and potentially harmful strategy of applying to safer programs before applying to more risky “reach” programs. About a quarter of applicants have the potential to improve their application choices by resorting their application choices.
We investigate how global banks’ macroeconomic expectations for borrower countries influence their credit supply. Utilizing granular data on varying expectations among banks lending to the same firm at the same time, combined with an instrumental variable approach, we find that more optimistic GDP growth expectations for a borrower country are strongly linked to increased credit supply. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in a lender’s GDP growth expectation for the borrower’s country corresponds to an increase of 8.46 percentage points in the loan share, equivalent to approximately 0.75 standard deviations of the loan share and $75.35 million in loan amount. In contrast, global banks’ short-term inflation expectations do not show a significant impact on their credit supply.
Wie es mit der internationalen Konjunktur in diesem und im kommenden Jahr weitergeht, hängt im Wesentlichen vom Fortgang der Handelskonflikte zwischen den USA und dem Rest der Welt ab. Alles in allem steigt die Weltproduktion in den Jahren 2025 und 2026 um jeweils 2,3%. Das größte weltwirtschaftliche Risiko besteht darin, dass die Handelskonflikte der USA mit der EU und insbesondere mit China weiter eskalieren. Für die deutsche Wirtschaft gibt es mehr und mehr Anzeichen für eine konjunkturelle Erholung, die jedoch ebenfalls erheblich von der möglichen Eskalation der US-Handelskonflikte gefährdet ist. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2025 mit 0,4% erstmals seit zwei Jahren wieder etwas zunehmen.
