New Insights in Business Cycles: An Overview
Oliver Holtemöller, J. Rahn, M. H. Stierle
One-off Publications,
No. 6,
2009
Abstract
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Menschenwürdige Wirtschaftsordnung: Historische Wurzeln und Konzepte
Ulrich Blum
One-off Publications,
No. 1,
2007
Abstract
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Upswing Continues - European Debt Crisis still Unresolved: Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2011
Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie,
2011
Abstract
In spring 2011 the world economy is in an upswing phase, especially due to the momentum in the emerging economies. Germany too is experiencing a strong upturn. The institutes expect that German GDP will increase this year by 2.8% and by 2.0% next year. For 2011 and 2012, an unemployment rate of 6.9% and 6.5%, respectively, is forecast. Growth forces will gradually shift towards domestic demand. Wages will increase in the wake of the upswing, and the inflation rate will be relatively high at 2.4% in 2011 and 2.0% in 2012. Government net borrowing will amount to 1.7% in 2011 and in 2012 will decline to 0.9%, in relation to nominal GDP. The greatest forecast risks are international. If a reduction in the oil supply were to come about because of increasing unrest in the Arab world or if the European debt and confidence crisis were to worsen, this would have a clear effect on the economy. German economic policy is well-advised to maintain its consolidation course and to work for amendments to the European Stability Mechanism.
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The Term Structure of Banking Crisis Risk in the United States: A Market Data Based Compound Option Approach
Stefan Eichler, Alexander Karmann, Dominik Maltritz
Journal of Banking & Finance,
No. 4,
2011
Abstract
We use a compound option-based structural credit risk model to estimate banking crisis risk for the United States based on market data on bank stocks on a daily frequency. We contribute to the literature by providing separate information on short-term, long-term and total crisis risk instead of a single-maturity risk measure usually inferred by Merton-type models or barrier models. We estimate the model by applying the Duan (1994) maximum-likelihood approach. A strongly increasing total crisis risk estimated from early July 2007 onwards is driven mainly by short-term crisis risk. Banks that defaulted or were overtaken during the crisis have a considerably higher crisis risk (especially higher long-term risk) than banks that survived the crisis.
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Erfolge und Misserfolge im Einigungsprozess
Ulrich Blum, Jutta Günther
Orientierungen zur Wirtschafts- und Gesellschaftspolitik 123,
2010
Abstract
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Der IWF – Hilfe in der Krise?
Makram El-Shagi
Deutschland und Europa,
2010
Abstract
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Anständig Geld verdienen – Protestantische Wirtschaftsethik unter den Bedingungen globaler Märkte
Ulrich Blum
Zeitschrift für Evangelische Ethik,
2010
Abstract
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20 Jahre Deutsche Einheit: Schöpferischer Aufbau
Ulrich Blum
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 10,
2010
Abstract
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