Alessandro Sardone

Alessandro Sardone
Current Position

since 9/20

Economist in the Department of Macroeconomics

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

Research Interests

  • fiscal and monetary policy
  • forecasting

Alessandro Sardone joined the Department of Macroeconomics as a doctoral student in September 2020. His research focuses on forecasting, monetary and fiscal policy, and political economics.

Alessandro Sardone received his bachelor's degree from University of Trento and his master's degree from Friedrich Schiller University Jena.

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Alessandro Sardone
Alessandro Sardone
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Working Papers

Phillips Curve and Output Expectations: New Perspectives from the Euro Zone

Giuliana Passamani Alessandro Sardone Roberto Tamborini

in: DEM Working Papers, forthcoming


When referring to the inflation trends over the last decade, economists speak of "puzzles": a “missing disinflation” puzzle in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and a ”missing inflation” one in the years of recovery to nowadays. To this, a specific "excess deflation" puzzle may be added during the post-crisis depression in the Euro Zone. The standard Phillips Curve model, in this context, has failed as the basic tool to produce reliable forecasts of future price developments, leading many scholars to consider this instrument to be no more adequate. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this literature through the development of a newly specified Phillips Curve model, in which the inflation-expectation component is rationally related to the business cycle. The model is tested with the Euro Zone data 1999-2019 showing that inflation turns out to be consistently determined by output gaps and and experts' survey-based forecast errors, and that the puzzles can be explained by the interplay between these two variables.

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