Birgit Schultz

Birgit Schultz
Current Position

since 1/95

Economist in the Department of Macroeconomics

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

Research Interests

  • analysing and forecasting of wages, income, private consumption and prices (consumer prices and GDP deflator) in Germany
  • German Sector accounts
  • export orientation of companies and wage compensation
  • methods of micro-econometric evaluation, especially matching approaches
  • organisation of workshops, seminars and conferences

Birgit Schultz joined the institute in 1995 and the Department of Macroeconomics in 2007. Her research focuses on the diagnosis and prediction of wages and salaries, income and the private consumption in Germany and East Germany as well as the price forecast.

Birgit Schultz earned a diploma from Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg and Manchester Metropolitan University.

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Birgit Schultz
Birgit Schultz
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Send Message +49 345 7753-818

Publications

Recent Publications

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Aktuelle Trends: Spiegelt sich die Mehrwertsteuersenkung in den Verbraucherpreisen wider?

Birgit Schultz

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 3, 2020

Abstract

Die Bundesregierung hat im Rahmen der Corona-Soforthilfemaßnahmen eine temporäre Mehrwertsteuer senkung von Juli 2020 bis Ende des Jahres beschlossen. Unter der Annahme, dass die Unternehmen die Mehrwertsteuersenkung über die Güterpreise vollständig an die Verbraucher weitergeben, würde die Mehrwertsteuersenkung von 19% auf 16% für sich genommen zu 2,5% niedrigeren Preisen und beim ermäßigten Steuersatz (von 7% auf 5%) für sich genommen zu 1,9% geringeren Preisen führen. Gaststätten dürfen die Mehrwertsteuer für Speisen ab Juli 2020 sogar von 19% auf 5% senken. 

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IWH-Flash-Indikator IV. Quartal 2020 und I. Quartal 2021

Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller Axel Lindner Birgit Schultz

in: IWH Flash Indicator, No. 4, 2020

Abstract

Weil weitreichende Eindämmungsmaßnahmen gelockert wurden, war die deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommer 2020 auf Erholungskurs. Dazu hat auch die Wirtschaftspolitik entscheidend beigetragen. Nach dem pandemiebedingten Einbruch um 9,8% im zweiten Quartal stieg das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) im dritten Quartal um 8,2%. Im Vergleich zum vierten Quartal 2019 – dem letzten Quartal ohne Einfluss der Pandemie – beträgt der Rückgang noch 4%. Allerdings sind die Covid-19-Neuinfektionen im Herbst wieder stark gestiegen, und für den November wurden insbesondere für den privaten Bereich erneut erhebliche Einschränkungen erlassen. Für weite Teile der gewerblichen Wirtschaft gelten diese Einschränkungen aber nicht. Die Wirtschaftsleistung dürfte daher im vierten Quartal 2020 nicht so stark einbrechen wie in der ersten Jahreshälfte. Der IWH-Flash-Indikator für das Bruttoinlandsprodukt deutet auf einen Rückgang um 2,1% hin, gefolgt von einer Expansion um 5,0% im ersten Quartal 2021 (vgl. Abbildung 1)

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IWH-Tarif-Check: Kräftige reale Netto-Tariflohnzuwächse für Beschäftigte im Öffentlichen Dienst

Oliver Holtemöller Birgit Schultz

in: IWH Tarif-Check, No. 1, 2020

Abstract

Steuerfreie „Corona-Sonderzahlung“ und Abbau des Solidaritätszuschlags bringen Beschäftigten bei Bund und Kommunen kräftiges Gehalts-Plus. Die Tarifvertragsparteien des Öffentlichen Dienstes von Bund und Kommunen haben sich auf einen neuen Tariflohnabschluss mit einer Laufzeit bis Ende 2022 geeinigt: Im Dezember 2020 gibt es eine steuerfreie „Corona-Sonderzahlung“, die je nach Entgeltgruppe bis zu 600 Euro beträgt. Ab April 2021 steigt dann das Gehalt um 1,4%, jedoch mindestens um 50 Euro je Monat, ein Jahr später um weitere 1,8%. Zudem gibt es noch eine Reihe von Zusatzvereinbarungen wie beispielsweise die Reduzierung der wöchentlichen Arbeitszeit in Ostdeutschland auf das Westniveau, die Erhöhung der Jahressonder-zahlung oder die Einführung einer Pflegezulage.

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Refereed Publications

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Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns im Handwerk in Sachsen-Anhalt

Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch Birgit Schultz

in: Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, No. 2, 2018

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of the minimum wage introduction in Germany in 2015 on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt. Using novel survey data on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt, we examine three questions: (1) How many employees are affected by the minimum wage introduction in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt? (2) What are the effects of the minimum wage introduction? (3) How did firms react to wage increase? We find that about 8 % of all employees in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt are directly affected by the minimum wage introduction. A difference-in-difference estimation reveals no significant employment effects of the minimum wage introduction. We test for alternative adjustment strategies and observe a significant increase of output prices.

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Comparing the training activities of unemployed and full-time employed people

Birgit Schultz Joachim Wilde

in: Zeitschrift für Arbeitsmarktforschung, No. 1, 2008

Abstract

Many empirical studies for Germany consider either the training activities of the unemployed or those of employees. However, a comprehensive comparison of both groups had not been conducted until now. The paper closes this gap. Using data from the latest time-use survey (Zeitbudgeterhebung) of the Federal Statistical Office, the amount of training undertaken by the two groups is compared. Furthermore, the types of activities that are made use of in particular are described. Heterogeneity due to different relevant socioeconomic characteristics in the two groups is eliminated by applying a matching procedure. The findings demonstrate that only 49% of unemployed people participate in any kind of training activity off the job. In the case of full-time employment 59 % would take part. Concerning the average expenditure of time per week the difference is reversed, i.e. the expenditure of time is greater during unemployment. However, a large proportion of the training activities undertaken by the unemployed comprises general training, e.g. by reading books or watching television. Furthermore, the result is driven by a different potential of time that can be used for training activities off the job. In relation to this potential of time, the amount of training activity is still smaller during unemployment.

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Mikroökonometrische Evaluation der ökonomischen Wirkungen betrieblicher Mitbestimmung - Möglichkeiten und Grenzen des Matching-Ansatzes

Birgit Schultz

in: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, No. 5, 2006

Abstract

The evaluation of economic effects of workers participation is not simple from the methodical point of view because of specific characteristics of establishments with works councils. Especially recent studies show contradictory results. In this study problems are pointed out, discussed, and options for solution are presented on the example of workers participation in East German establishments of industry and construction by the IAB-Establishment Panel. An optimal matching-algorithm which supplies good matching-results for small samples to assign 'statistical establishment-twins' is applied. But by reason of very short primarily spells it can only calculate short time effects. Therefore, the matching method is additionally used to construct longer observation periods. By this new application establishments with recently founded works councils are matched with so called 'proxy establishments' with existing works councils. As a result short observation periods are prolonged and information about long-term effects can be given. The effects on productivity, profitability and qualification level of employees show neither in short-term nor in long-term a significant impact on workers' participation.

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Working Papers

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The Minimum Wage Effects on Skilled Crafts Sector in Saxony-Anhalt

Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch Birgit Schultz

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 31, 2017

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of the minimum wage introduction in Germany in 2015 on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt. Using novel survey data on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt, we examine three questions: (1) How many employees are affected by the minimum wage introduction in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony- Anhalt? (2) What are the effects of the minimum wage introduction? (3) How have firms reacted to wage increase? We find that about 8% of all employees in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt are directly affected by the minimum wage introduction. A difference-in-difference estimation reveals no significant employment effects of the minimum wage introduction. We test for alternative adjustment strategies and observe a significant increase of output prices.

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A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany

Oliver Holtemöller Maike Irrek Birgit Schultz

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 11, 2012

Abstract

Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model fea-tures a top-down approach and, as major contribution, uses error correction models to estimate the regional economic development dependent on the national projection. For the medium- and long-term projection of economic activity, we apply a production function approach. We provide a detailed robustness analysis by systematically varying assumptions of the model. Additionally, we explore the effects of different demographic trends on economic development.

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Vergleich der Weiterbildungsaktivitäten von Arbeitslosen und Vollzeiterwerbstätigen

Birgit Schultz Joachim Wilde

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 9, 2007

Abstract

Many empirical studies consider either training activities of the unemployed or training activities of the employees in Germany. However, a comprehensive comparison of both groups is missing. The paper closes this gap. Using data of the latest time use survey (Zeitbudgeterhebung) of the Federal Statistical Office, the amount of training is compared for both groups. Furthermore, it is described which types of activities are made use of in particular. Heterogeneity due to different relevant socioeconomic characteristics in the two groups is eliminated by the appliance of a matching procedure. Findings demonstrate that only 49% of the unemployed persons participate in any kind of training activities off the job. In case of the full-time employment 59 % would take part. Concerning the average expenditure of time per week the difference turns around, i.e. the expenditure of time is higher during unemployment. However, a high proportion of the training activities of the unemployed falls upon general training, e.g. by reading books or watching TV. Furthermore, the result is driven by a different potential of time that can be used for training activities off the job. Relating to this potential of time the amount of training activities is still lower during unemployment.

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