João Carlos Claudio

João Carlos Claudio
Current Position

since 5/17

Economist in the Department of Macroeconomics

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

Research Interests

  • dynamic macroeconomics
  • monetary policy
  • applied macroeconometrics

João Carlos Claudio joined the Department of Macroeconomics as a doctoral student in May 2017. His research focuses on dynamic macroeconomics, monetary policy, and applied macroeconometrics.

João Carlos Claudio received his bachelor's degree from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz and his master's degree from Freie Universität Berlin.

Your contact

João Carlos Claudio
João Carlos Claudio
Mitglied - Department Macroeconomics
Send Message +49 345 7753-880

Publications

Recent Publications

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Nowcasting East German GDP Growth: a MIDAS Approach

João Carlos Claudio Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Empirical Economics, forthcoming

Abstract

Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account. Overall, we find that mixed-data sampling model forecasts for East German GDP in combination with model averaging outperform regional forecast models that only rely on aggregate national information.

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Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft legt kräftig zu

Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch João Carlos Claudio Andrej Drygalla Franziska Exß Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller Martina Kämpfe Konstantin Kiesel Axel Lindner Jan-Christopher Scherer Birgit Schultz Matthias Wieschemeyer Götz Zeddies

in: Konjunktur aktuell, No. 4, 2017

Abstract

Im Sommer 2017 befindet sich die Weltwirtschaft im Aufschwung. Das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte nach vorliegender Prognose im Jahr 2017 wie schon im Vorjahr mit 1,9% und im Jahr 2018 mit 2,0% expandieren. Die öffentlichen Haushalte erzielen dabei weiter zunehmende Überschüsse. Der Zuwachs der Produktion in Ostdeutschland dürfte im Prognosezeitraum (wie schon in den vergangenen drei Jahren) etwas über dem in Westdeutschland liegen.

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