Toggle navigation
DE
Topics
Economic Outlook
To Topic
The new Europe
To Topic
East Germany
To Topic
Financial Stability
To Topic
Demographic Change
To Topic
Social Mobility
To Topic
Behaviour
To Topic
Publications
Research
Projects
MICROPROD
The Political Economy of the European Banking Union
Establishing Evidence-based Evaluation Methods for Subsidy Programmes in Germany (EVA-KULT)
Joint Economic Forecast
All Projects
Research Groups
Econometric Tools for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Simulation
Organisational Behaviour and Corporate Success
Regulation of International Financial Markets and International Banking
All Research Groups
Data and Analysis
Macroeconomic Reports
Research Data Centre
International Banking Library
IWH Macrometer
IWH-EXplore
IWH EXplore
Speed Projects
Seed Fund
Research Network
IWH Research Network in Economics
IWH Research Seminar in Economics
Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet)
Alumni
Research Profile
Tasks
Research Clusters
IWH News
Reports / Research / Data
Name
*
Press
Press Releases
Presseeinladung zur Verleihung des Max-Planck-Humboldt-Forschungspreises und der Max-Planck-Humboldt-Medaille 2019 in Berlin, Akademie der Künste, 5. November 2019 um 17:00 Uhr mit anschließendem Empfang
Presseeinladung zum Workshop: „Strukturwandel auf dem Arbeitsmarkt“ am 17. und 18. Oktober 2019 in Halle (Saale)
Thanks to robust domestic demand, the impact of the manufacturing sector on East Germany is less severe than in the west – Implications of the Autumn 2019 Joint Economic Forecast and official regional data for the eastern German economy
All press releases
Topic-related Experts
Choose topic
Choose topic
Labour Market
Brexit
Demographic Change
Policy Evaluation
Financial Institutions
Financial Crisis
Financial Markets
Financial Stability
Refugee Migration
Fiscal Federalism
Monetary Policy
Households
Innovations
Coal Phase-out
Urban Economics
Economic Outlook
Korea
Minimum wages
The new Europe
Econometrics
East Germany
Productivity
Forecasts
Regulation
Risk
Social Mobility
National Budget
Startups
Taxes
Transition
Behaviour
Growth
Professor Reint E. Gropp, PhD
Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Professor Michael Koetter, PhD
Professor Dr Steffen Müller
Interview Requests
Stefanie Müller
Head of Public Relations
+49 345 7753-720
Press Material
Charts
Quotations
Annual Report
Newsletter "Wirtschaft im Wandel"
Latest Issue
"Wirtschaft im Wandel" Archive
Newsletter Archive (until 2017)
Media Response
We will be using unique new Treuhand data
Ufuk Akcigit
in: Max Planck Society, November 4, 2019
More media response
IWH News
Reports / Research / Data
Name
*
Events
Career
Vacancies
Jobs at IWH
Professor in Banking and Financial Systems (W2) (m/f/x)
Doctoral Programme
IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics
Members
Faculty
Study Programme
Standards
Applications
Academics
Vocational Training
Teaching
Internships
Why IWH?
Work-Life Balance
Internationalisation
The city of Halle (Saale)
Equal Opportunities
Gender Equality & Anti-Discrimination
Diversity
Contact
IWH News
Reports / Research / Data
Name
*
About the IWH
The Institute
At a Glance
Contact
Directions to the IWH
Membership
Annual Reports
Anniversary 2017
Team
Professor Reint E. Gropp, PhD
Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Professor Michael Koetter, PhD
Professor Dr Steffen Müller
Dr Tankred Schuhmann
All Team Members
Research Departments
Financial Markets
Macroeconomics
Structural Change and Productivity
IWH-CEP
Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice
IWH Subsidy Database
Events
Technological Change and Skill Demand in Non-Competitive Labor Markets
Attila Lindner
09. December. 2019, 14:15 - 15:45
All Events
Equal Opportunity
Equal Opportunities at IWH
Work-Life Balance
Contact
Boards
Executive Board and Supervisory Board
Members' Assembly
Scientific Advisory Board
Library
Overview, Contact and Opening Hours
OPAC
Alumni
Alumni
Events
IWH News
Reports / Research / Data
Name
*
Publications
refereed publications only
All
Series
External Publications
(737)
One-off Publications
(42)
Department
Financial Markets
(258)
Structural Change and Productivity
(204)
Macroeconomics
(160)
Topic
Financial Markets
(43)
Financial Institutions
(26)
Labour Market
(26)
Financial Crisis
(23)
Behaviour
(18)
Monetary Policy
(17)
Innovations
(15)
Growth
(12)
Financial Stability
(11)
Productivity
(11)
Econometrics
(9)
Economic Outlook
(8)
The new Europe
(8)
Regulation
(6)
Risk
(6)
Forecasts
(5)
Policy Evaluation
(5)
Demographic Change
(4)
East Germany
(4)
Refugee Migration
(3)
Transition
(3)
Urban Economics
(3)
National Budget
(2)
Fiscal Federalism
(1)
Households
(1)
Minimum wages
(1)
Social Mobility
(1)
Taxes
(1)
Author
Scheufele, Rolf
(11)
Adams, Z.
(1)
Ahrens, J.
(1)
Altdörfer, Marc
(1)
Altemeyer-Bartscher, Martin
(3)
Altmann, C.
(1)
Ambrocio, Gene
(1)
Anand, S.
(1)
ap Gwilym, Owain
(1)
Arias, Jonas
(1)
Arndt, C.
(2)
Arsyad, Nuruzzaman
(1)
Aumann, Bernd
(1)
Barjak, Franz
(1)
Baumeister, Christiane
(3)
Bebenroth, Ralf
(1)
Becker, Claudia
(1)
Beck, Thorsten
(2)
Behrens, Doris A.
(1)
Behr, P.
(2)
Berger, Allen N.
(2)
Bettencourt, Luis M. A.
(1)
Beutel, Johannes
(1)
Bieräugel, D.
(1)
Bischoff, Ivo
(1)
Blaeschke, F.
(1)
Blank, S.
(3)
Blesse, S.
(1)
Blum, Ulrich
(37)
Boissay, F.
(1)
Bolduc, D.
(1)
Bos, J. W. B.
(5)
Bosma, Jakob
(1)
Bouckaert, Jan
(8)
Brachert, Matthias
(18)
Brandenburg, Bianca
(1)
Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich
(7)
Breitfelder, Ariane
(1)
Brenner, T.
(1)
Breul, M.
(1)
Broekel, T.
(3)
Buch, Claudia M.
(48)
Buchholz, Manuel
(2)
Buehn, A.
(4)
Bui, Dien Giau
(1)
Burger, Philippe
(1)
Buscher, Herbert
(1)
Buscher, Herbert S.
(4)
Bönisch, Peter
(7)
Bühn, A.
(1)
Bülbül, D.
(1)
Caines, Colin
(1)
Cambrea, Domenico Rocco
(1)
Cantner, U.
(2)
Carbo-Valverde, Santiago
(1)
Carstensen, K.
(1)
Carvalho, J.-R.
(1)
Cerqueiro, Geraldo
(1)
Chadi, Adrian
(1)
Chahine, Salim
(3)
Cheng, Xiaoqiang
(1)
Chen, Yan-Shing
(1)
Christiano, Lawrence J.
(4)
Claudy, Marius
(3)
Coenen, Günter
(3)
Colak, Gonul
(1)
Colonnello, Stefano
(5)
Cornelsen, Inge
(1)
Corradin, S.
(1)
Corvoisier, S.
(1)
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús
(1)
Curatola, Giuliano
(3)
Damar, H. Evren
(1)
Dam, Lammertjan
(1)
Dannenberg, Henry
(5)
de Goeij, Peter
(1)
De Graeve, Ferre
(1)
Degryse, Hans
(47)
De Haas, Ralph
(1)
de Jong, Abe
(1)
de Jong, Frank
(4)
de Jong, Gjalt
(3)
De las Salas Vega, Carlos A.
(1)
Delis, Manthos D.
(8)
Deli, Yota D.
(2)
DeLong, G.
(3)
Deng, Liuchun
(5)
Dettmann, Eva
(7)
de Vries, Gaaitzen J.
(1)
Dietrich, Diemo
(10)
Doepke, J.
(1)
Dominguez Lacasa, Iciar
(13)
Doumpos, Michael
(1)
Drechsel, Katja
(3)
Dreger, Christian
(8)
Drexler, A. H.
(1)
Driffield, N.
(1)
Driscoll, J.C.
(1)
Drygalla, Andrej
(2)
Dudley, Leonard
(8)
Duru, Augustine
(1)
Duschl, M.
(1)
Döpke, Jörg
(8)
Economidou, Claire
(2)
Efing, M.
(1)
Ehrenfeld, Wilfried
(5)
Eichenbaum, Martin S.
(3)
Eichler, Stefan
(39)
Eickmeier, S.
(2)
El-Shagi, Makram
(25)
Elahi, Muhammad Ather
(1)
Engelhardt, Gunther
(1)
Erceg, Christopher J.
(2)
Ertelt, Stefan
(1)
Eschelbach, Martina
(1)
Fackler, Daniel
(10)
Fairlie, Robert W.
(1)
Fang, Yiwei
(3)
Fantini, Giulia
(1)
Farinha, Teresa
(1)
Feltes, T.
(1)
Fernández-Ruiz, Jorge
(1)
Filatotchev, I.
(1)
Foos, Gertraud
(1)
Francis, Bill
(13)
Franz, Peter
(20)
Freedman, Charles
(1)
Freye, Sabine
(1)
Fritsch, Michael
(5)
Fuchs, Johann
(1)
Fuchs, Michaela
(1)
Fuchs, Olaf
(1)
Fuhrmeister, Clemens
(1)
Funck, R.
(1)
Fungáčová, Zuzana
(1)
Furceri, Davide
(1)
Füss, R.
(1)
Gabrisch, Hubert
(19)
Gaganis, Chrysovalantis
(3)
Galema, Rients
(2)
García-Cestona, Miguel
(1)
García, A.P.
(1)
Gaudry, Marc
(6)
Gauselmann, Andrea
(5)
Gebhardt, Oliver
(1)
Geys, B.
(1)
Giebler, Alexander
(1)
Giesen, Sebastian
(7)
Gioffré, Alessandro
(1)
Giroud, Axèle
(2)
Glassner, Vera
(1)
Goerke, Laszlo
(2)
Gonchar, K.
(1)
Graf, H.
(1)
Gropp, Reint E.
(25)
Growitsch, Christian
(6)
Gruendl, C.
(1)
Grupp, Hariolf
(1)
Grusevaja, Marina
(1)
Gründer, G.
(1)
Guettler, Andre
(5)
Gu, Xian
(1)
Göktepe-Hultén, D.
(1)
Göthner, Maximilian
(2)
Gühne, Michael
(1)
Günther, Edeltraud
(1)
Günther, Jutta
(22)
Hackethal, Andreas
(1)
Hakenes, H.
(1)
Hall, John B.
(11)
Hamar, Judit
(1)
Hamilton, James D.
(3)
Hartmann, Maria
(1)
Hasan, Iftekhar
(54)
Hauck, Achim
(1)
Haug, Peter
(8)
Havrylchyk, Olena
(1)
Haynes, K. E.
(1)
Heblich, S.
(1)
Heider, Bastian
(1)
Heider, Florian
(1)
Heid, Frank
(1)
Heimpold, Gerhard
(3)
Heineck, G.
(1)
Heinisch, Katja
(4)
Heise, A.
(2)
Herlyn, Ulfert
(1)
Hermanussen, M.
(2)
Herrera, R.
(1)
Hielscher, K.
(1)
Hilberg, Björn
(1)
Hilgers, R. D.
(1)
Hinze, S.
(1)
Hirsch, Boris
(21)
Hoang, Ngoc Giang
(1)
Hochfellner, Daniela
(1)
Hoffmann, Florian
(6)
Hoffmann, Mathias
(1)
Hofmann, M.
(1)
Hoi, Chun-Keung (Stan)
(2)
Holtemöller, Oliver
(18)
Hornych, Christoph
(11)
Horvath, Roman
(1)
Huizinga, H.
(1)
Hunter, Delroy M.
(1)
Hyll, Walter
(11)
Hölscher, Jens
(3)
Hölscher, Lisa
(2)
Ilgmann, C.
(1)
Illy, Annette
(3)
in't Veld, Jan
(1)
Inklaar, R.
(1)
Ioannidou, Vasso
(1)
Iosifidi, Maria
(2)
Irmen, Andreas
(2)
Jackowicz, Krzysztof
(3)
Jahn, Elke J.
(4)
Jakovljević, Sanja
(1)
Jeworrek, Sabrina
(5)
Jindra, Björn
(18)
Jirjahn, U.
(1)
John, J.
(1)
John, Kose
(1)
Jungermann, Franziska
(1)
Jurzyk, Emilia
(1)
Kadareja, A.
(1)
Kambourov, Gueorgui
(1)
Kappert, Peter
(1)
Karlsson, Charlie
(1)
Karmann, Alexander
(4)
Kauffmann, Albrecht
(5)
Kawka, Rupert
(1)
Kesternich, I.
(1)
Khalil, Fahad
(1)
Khurshed, Arif
(1)
Kick, Thomas
(5)
Kiesel, Konstantin
(1)
Kleinert, J.
(4)
Kliem, Martin
(4)
Knabe, Andreas
(1)
Knedlik, Tobias
(14)
Kneer, Christiane
(1)
Knell, Mark
(1)
Kobeissi, Nada
(3)
Koblo, R.
(1)
Koch, C. T.
(4)
Koetter, Michael
(38)
Kok, C.
(1)
Kolari, James W.
(4)
Kolb, Jürgen
(1)
Komar, Walter
(2)
Komlos, John
(1)
Konietzko, Thorsten
(1)
Kool, Clemens J. M.
(2)
Kosfeld, Reinhold
(2)
Kowalewski, Oskar
(3)
Kowalski, J.
(1)
Kozak, Sylwester
(1)
Kozłowski, Łukasz
(3)
Krabel, S.
(1)
Krahnen, Jan Pieter
(1)
Krainer, J.
(1)
Krap, Niels
(1)
Krause, Thomas
(3)
Kristalova, Maria
(2)
Kriwoluzky, Alexander
(7)
Kronthaler, Franz
(4)
Kropfhäußer, Frieder
(3)
Kubis, Alexander
(12)
Kuckulenz, A.
(1)
Kudic, Muhamed
(3)
Kumhof, Michael
(1)
Kumpmann, Ingmar
(2)
Kuttig, Tim
(1)
Kämpfe, Martina
(2)
König, Marion
(1)
Küllü, A. Melih
(1)
Laderman, E.
(1)
Laeven, Luc
(2)
Lalonde, René
(1)
Lambert, Claudia
(2)
Lambert, Thomas
(1)
Lang, Cornelia
(5)
Lang, S.
(1)
Laxton, Douglas
(1)
Lechmann, Daniel S. J.
(1)
Lefebvre, Jérémie
(2)
Lehmann, Harald
(3)
Leibbrand, Frank
(2)
Lemieux, Thomas
(1)
Leung, Woon Sau
(1)
Liao, Yin-chi
(1)
Lichtenberger, J.-D.
(1)
Liesegang, C.
(1)
Li, Lingxiang
(2)
Lin, Chih-Yung
(2)
Lindner, Axel
(12)
Lindé, Jesper
(2)
Lipponer, A.
(6)
Littke, Helge
(2)
Liu, Liuling
(5)
Li, Xiang
(1)
Lobo, José
(1)
Lo Duca, M.
(1)
Loose, Brigitte
(1)
Lucke, N.
(2)
Ludwig, Udo
(12)
Lu, Liping
(1)
Lähner, Tom
(6)
Löffler, Gunter
(1)
Magnac, T.
(1)
Mallick, Sushanta
(2)
Maltritz, Dominik
(9)
Mani, Sureshbabu
(1)
Manthey, C.
(1)
Marek, Philipp
(10)
Mares, Jan
(1)
Markandya, A.
(1)
Maschke, Philip
(4)
Masschelein, Nancy
(1)
Mattes, A.
(1)
Matthews, Kent
(2)
Maurin, L.
(1)
Mazboudi, Mohamad
(4)
Meder, Andreas
(1)
Mellander, Charlotta
(1)
Mertins, Vanessa
(2)
Meslier, Céline
(1)
Michelsen, Claus
(10)
Mitchell, Janet
(1)
Moerman, G.
(1)
Mohamed, Abdulkadir
(1)
Monti, P.
(1)
Mordel, A.
(1)
Mosk, Thomas
(1)
Mourougane, Annabelle
(1)
Muir, Dirk
(1)
Mullen, M.R.
(1)
Muneepeerakul, Rachata
(1)
Mursula, Susanna
(1)
Mylonidis, Nikolaos
(2)
Mäder, M.
(1)
Möller, Joachim
(1)
Müller, Carola
(1)
Müller, Ralf
(1)
Müller, Steffen
(20)
Müsgens, Felix
(1)
Nastansky, A.
(1)
Nautz, Dieter
(2)
Neck, Reinhard
(1)
Nerré, Birger
(1)
Nestmann, Thorsten
(1)
Neubäumer, Renate
(1)
Neugebauer, Katja
(2)
Neyer, Ulrike
(1)
Nguyen, Grégory
(1)
Norden, L.
(1)
Noth, Felix
(16)
Nowack, M.
(1)
Nullmeier, Frank
(1)
Nulsch, Nicole
(2)
Oberfichtner, Michael
(2)
Ohls, Jana
(2)
Ohr, Renate
(2)
Ongena, Steven
(14)
Oreopoulos, Philip
(3)
Orlowski, Lucjan T.
(4)
Ossandon Busch, Matias
(1)
Ostergaard, C.
(1)
O´Driscol, A.
(2)
Pannenberg, Markus
(1)
Papadimitri, Panagiota
(1)
Parys, Juliane
(1)
Pasiouras, Fotios
(3)
Peglow, François
(1)
Penas, Maria Fabiana
(2)
Pierdzioch, C.
(4)
Piontek, M.
(1)
Pippel, Gunnar
(5)
Plaga, T.
(1)
Poghosyan, Tigran
(3)
Pohle, Felix
(1)
Porath, Daniel
(1)
Pramor, Markus
(1)
Prieto, Esteban
(3)
Prinz, S.
(1)
Provoost, Thomas
(1)
Pusch, Toralf
(8)
Pyka, Andreas
(1)
Ramirez, Gabriel G.
(1)
Rammerstorfer, Margarethe
(1)
Rehbein, Oliver
(2)
Reimers, Hans-Eggert
(1)
Reinowski, Eva
(3)
Reiss, Thomas
(4)
Resende, Carlos de
(1)
Richards, A. J.
(1)
Richert, Reimar
(1)
Riphahn, Regina T.
(3)
Roberts, John
(1)
Rodríguez-Fernández, Francisco
(1)
Roeger, Werner
(1)
Rosenfeld, Martin T. W.
(14)
Rosenschon, Sebastian
(1)
Roszbach, Kasper
(1)
Rübbelke, Dirk T. G.
(2)
Saadi, Vahid
(1)
Sadrieh, Abdolkarim
(1)
Salazar, V.
(1)
Sarferaz, Samad
(2)
Sarlin, Peter
(1)
Sauermann, Jan
(1)
Schade, K.-D.
(1)
Schaeck, Klaus
(1)
Schank, Thorsten
(3)
Scharff, Juliane
(5)
Schertler, A.
(2)
Schlotter, M.
(1)
Schmalzbauer, Andreas
(1)
Schmeißer, Christian
(1)
Schmidt, R. H.
(1)
Schmoch, U.
(1)
Schmucker, A.
(1)
Schnabel, Claus
(15)
Schnabel, Isabel
(1)
Schneider, Lutz
(13)
Schnitzer, M.
(2)
Scholz, J. K.
(1)
Schreiber, S.
(1)
Schuewer, U.
(2)
Schult, Christoph
(2)
Schultz, Birgit
(4)
Schulz, R.
(1)
Schumacher, Christian
(3)
Schwartz, Michael
(21)
Schwarze, R.
(1)
Schweinitz, Gregor von
(10)
Schwienbacher, Armin
(1)
Schwientek, Caroline
(2)
Schwintowski, H.-P.
(1)
Schüwer, Ulrich
(1)
Scott-Kennel, J.
(1)
Seefeld, V.
(1)
Segnana, Maria Luigia
(1)
Senker, J.M.
(1)
Sharma, P.
(1)
Sheshinski, E.
(1)
Shin, H.
(1)
Shi, Shouyong
(1)
Shutters, Shade T.
(1)
Siegel, D. S.
(1)
Siegmund, J.
(1)
Slavtchev, Viktor
(8)
Snudden, Stephen
(1)
Sobanski, Karol
(2)
Soedarmono, Wahyoe
(1)
Sondershaus, Talina
(1)
Song, Liang
(1)
Spagnolo, G.
(1)
Spierdijk, Laura
(1)
Staehr, K.
(1)
Stahn, K.
(1)
Stark, Oded
(4)
Steffen, Wolfgang
(1)
Stegmaier, Jens
(6)
Steinat, Nicole
(1)
Stephan, Johannes
(16)
Stoltenberg, Christian A.
(2)
Stolz, Stéphanie
(1)
Storz, Manuela
(1)
Straub, Roland
(2)
Strotmann, H.
(1)
Strumsky, Deborah
(1)
Ströbel, Johannes
(1)
Sunder, Marco
(12)
Sun, Xian
(2)
Sun, Yufeng
(2)
Tarazi, Amine
(1)
Tasiou, Menelaos
(1)
Titze, Mirko
(18)
Tonzer, Lena
(11)
Toomet, Ott
(1)
Toubal, Farid
(3)
Trabandt, Mathias
(10)
Tresguerres, J. A. F.
(2)
Trocka, Dirk
(1)
Tsai, Wei-Che
(1)
Tsoumas, Chris
(1)
Tuan, Le Quoc
(1)
Tunzelmann, N. von
(1)
Tyrell, M.
(1)
Tümer-Alkan, Günseli
(1)
Ueltzen, Werner
(1)
Uhlig, Harald
(1)
Van Achter, Mark
(2)
Van Cayseele, Patrick
(1)
van Dijk, Theon
(1)
van Dut, Vo.
(2)
van Horen, Neeltje
(1)
van Kervel, Vincent
(1)
Van Ravenswaaij, Maarten
(1)
van Vo, D.
(1)
Veltins, Michael A.
(2)
Vernaleken, I.
(1)
Vesala, Jukka M.
(3)
Viegas, Gercek
(1)
Viegas, Jose
(2)
Vins, Oliver
(1)
Voigt, M.
(2)
Vollmer, Uwe
(4)
vonLedebur, Sidonia
(1)
von Schedvin, Erik
(1)
von Westernhagen, N.
(1)
Vulpes, Giuseppe
(1)
Völlmecke, Dominik
(1)
Wagner, J.
(2)
Wagner, Kerstin
(1)
Waisman, Maya
(1)
Waldmann, N.
(2)
Walentin, Karl
(1)
Wang, Bijun
(1)
Wang, Boqun
(1)
Wang, Fan
(1)
Wang, Haizhi
(8)
Wang, Qingwei
(2)
Wang, Y.
(1)
Warren, Donald I.
(1)
Weber, G.
(1)
Wedow, Michael
(5)
Weigt, Eva
(2)
Weilepp, Manfred
(1)
Weill, Laurent
(1)
Wein, Thomas
(3)
Weiß, Dominik
(1)
Wendt, Katharina
(1)
Werner, Klaus
(1)
Weyerstraß, Klaus
(2)
White, M. J.
(1)
Whybrow, O.
(1)
Wiederhold, S.
(1)
Wiemers, Jürgen
(2)
Wiest, D.
(1)
Wilde, Joachim
(9)
Wilde, Katja
(1)
Wix, Carlo
(1)
Wohlrabe, Klaus
(1)
Woitek, U.
(1)
Wolf, H.
(1)
Wu, Qiang
(4)
Wuyts, Gunther
(3)
Xie, Ru
(1)
Xiong, Qizhou
(1)
Yener, S.
(1)
Ye, Pengfei
(1)
Yi, Moises
(1)
Yin, Desheng
(1)
Zeddies, Götz
(11)
Zhang, Gaiyan
(1)
Zhang, Hao
(2)
Zhao, Tianshu
(2)
Zhao, Yijiang
(1)
Zhen, Xinting
(1)
Zhou, Mingming
(3)
Zhu, Yun
(4)
Zucchi, F.
(1)
Zumbro, Timo
(1)
Zwick, Thomas
(2)
Ćumurović, Aida
(1)
Year
Refresh
Should Forecasters Use Real‐time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence
Katja Heinisch, Rolf Scheufele
German Economic Review, forthcoming
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real‐time or latest‐available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ mixed‐frequency models and real‐time data to reassess the role of surveys and financial data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Although we find evidence that forecast characteristics based on real‐time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator models. However, when obtaining the optimal combination of soft and hard data, the use of final release data may understate the role of survey information.
Read article
Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment
Katja Heinisch, Rolf Scheufele
Empirical Economics, No. 2, 2018
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate whether there are benefits in disaggregating GDP into its components when nowcasting GDP. To answer this question, we conduct a realistic out-of-sample experiment that deals with the most prominent problems in short-term forecasting: mixed frequencies, ragged-edge data, asynchronous data releases and a large set of potential information. We compare a direct leading indicator-based GDP forecast with two bottom-up procedures—that is, forecasting GDP components from the production side or from the demand side. Generally, we find that the direct forecast performs relatively well. Among the disaggregated procedures, the production side seems to be better suited than the demand side to form a disaggregated GDP nowcast.
Read article
Impulse Response Analysis in a Misspecified DSGE Model: A Comparison of Full and Limited Information Techniques
Sebastian Giesen, Rolf Scheufele
Applied Economics Letters, No. 3, 2016
Abstract
In this article, we examine the effect of estimation biases – introduced by model misspecification – on the impulse responses analysis for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Thereby, we use full and limited information estimators to estimate a misspecified DSGE model and calculate impulse response functions (IRFs) based on the estimated structural parameters. It turns out that IRFs based on full information techniques can be unreliable under misspecification.
Read article
Effects of Incorrect Specification on the Finite Sample Properties of Full and Limited Information Estimators in DSGE Models
Sebastian Giesen, Rolf Scheufele
Journal of Macroeconomics, June 2016
Abstract
In this paper we analyze the small sample properties of full information and limited information estimators in a potentially misspecified DSGE model. Therefore, we conduct a simulation study based on a standard New Keynesian model including price and wage rigidities. We then study the effects of omitted variable problems on the structural parameter estimates of the model. We find that FIML performs superior when the model is correctly specified. In cases where some of the model characteristics are omitted, the performance of FIML is highly unreliable, whereas GMM estimates remain approximately unbiased and significance tests are mostly reliable.
Read article
The Halle Economic Projection Model
Sebastian Giesen, Oliver Holtemöller, Juliane Scharff, Rolf Scheufele
Economic Modelling, No. 4, 2012
Abstract
In this paper we develop an open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model -- the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) -- is closely related to studies published by Carabenciov et al. Our main contribution is that we model the Euro area countries separately. In doing so, we consider Germany, France, and Italy which represent together about 70 percent of Euro area GDP. The model combines core equations of the New-Keynesian standard DSGE model with empirically useful ad-hoc equations. We estimate this model using Bayesian techniques and evaluate the forecasting properties. Additionally, we provide an impulse response analysis and a historical shock decomposition.
Read article
The Performance of Short-term Forecasts of the German Economy before and during the 2008/2009 Recession
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
International Journal of Forecasting, No. 2, 2012
Abstract
The paper analyzes the forecasting performance of leading indicators for industrial production in Germany. We focus on single and pooled leading indicator models both before and during the financial crisis. Pairwise and joint significant tests are used to evaluate single indicator models as well as forecast combination methods. In addition, we investigate the stability of forecasting models during the most recent financial crisis.
Read article
The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster's Perspective
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
Kredit und Kapital, No. 1, 2012
Abstract
This paper analyses the recession in 2008/2009 in Germany. This recession is very different from previous recessions in particular regarding their causes and magnitude. We show to what extent forecasters and forecasts based on leading indicators fail to detect the timing and the magnitude of the recession. This study shows that large forecast errors for both expert forecasts and forecasts based on leading indicators resulted during this recession which implies that the recession was very difficult to forecast. However, some leading indicators (survey data, risk spreads, stock prices) have indicated an economic downturn and hence, beat univariate time series models. Although the combination of individual forecasts provides an improvement compared to the benchmark model, the combined forecasts are worse than several individual models. A comparison of expert forecasts withthe best forecasts based on leading indicators shows only minor deviations. Overall, the range for an improvement of expert forecasts in the crisis compared to indicator forecasts is small.
Read article
Are Qualitative Inflation Expectations Useful to Predict Inflation?
Rolf Scheufele
Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, No. 1, 2011
Abstract
This paper examines the properties of qualitative inflation expectations collected from economic experts for Germany. It describes their characteristics relating to rationality and Granger causality. An out-of-sample simulation study investigates whether this indicator is suitable for inflation forecasting. Results from other standard forecasting models are considered and compared with models employing survey measures. We find that a model using survey expectations outperforms most of the competing models. Moreover, we find some evidence that the survey indicator already contains information from other model types (e. g. Phillips curve models). However, the forecast quality may be further improved by completely taking into account information from some financial indicators.
Read article
Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective
Bernd Aumann, Rolf Scheufele
Post-Communist Economies, 2010
Abstract
This article assesses whether the economy of East Germany is catching up with the West German region in terms of welfare. While the primary measure for convergence and catching up is per capita output, we also look at other macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment rates, wage rates and production levels in the manufacturing sector. In contrast to existing studies of convergence between regions of the reunified Germany, our approach is based purely upon the time series dimension and is thus directly focused on the catching up process in East Germany as a region. Our testing set-up includes standard ADF unit root tests as well as unit root tests that endogenously allow for a break in the deterministic component of the process. We find evidence of catching up for East Germany for most of the indicators. However, the convergence speed is slow, and thus it can be expected that the catching up process will take further decades until the regional gap is closed.
Read article
Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve
Rolf Scheufele
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2010
Abstract
This paper evaluates the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and its hybrid variant within a limited information framework for Germany. The main interest resides in the average frequency of price re-optimization by firms. We use the labor income share as the driving variable and consider a source of real rigidity by allowing for a fixed firm-specific capital stock. A GMM estimation strategy is employed as well as an identification robust method based on the Anderson–Rubin statistic. We find that the German Phillips curve is purely forward-looking. Moreover, our point estimates are consistent with the view that firms re-optimize prices every 2–3 quarters. These estimates seem plausible from an economic point of view. But the uncertainties around these estimates are very large and also consistent with perfect nominal price rigidity, where firms never re-optimize prices. This analysis also offers some explanation as to why previous results for the German NKPC based on GMM differ considerably. First, standard GMM results are very sensitive to the way in which orthogonality conditions are formulated. Further, model mis-specifications may be left undetected by conventional J tests. This analysis points out the need for identification robust methods to get reliable estimates for the NKPC.
Read article
1
2
next