Methods and Problems of Regional Economic Projections
Regional economic projections are fundamental for political decision-making in several fields, including land use. Residential as well as commercial land use is affected by regional economic growth. This article describes the methodology and problems of regional economic projections using the example of a medium and long-term projection model for the economic development in Germany and the German states. The model utilizes the production function approach and updates the factors of production, labor and capital, as well as productivity via time series econometric methods. The results for Germany as a whole show that gross domestic product will continue increasing during the time period of 2011 to 2025 despite the demographically caused decline of hours worked. However, the varying forms of demographic change in the German states will lead to regional growth differentials. This is exemplified by a comparison between Saxony and Baden-Württemberg.