Recovery Loses Momentum – Economy and Politics Still Shaped by the Pandemic

The corona pandemic has left substantial marks on the German economy and its impact is more persistent than presumed in the spring. In their autumn reports, leading German economic research institutes have revised their economic outlook downwards by roughly one percentage point for both this and next year. They now expect gross domestic product to fall by 5.4 % in 2020 (previously ­4.2 %) and to grow by 4.7 % (5.8 %) in 2021 and 2.7 % in 2022. The downgrade of the forecast follows a more pessimistic assessment of the recovery, which is being held back by those sectors that are particularly dependent on social contacts. The pre­crisis level of output will not be reached until the end of 2021 with GDP remaining at 2.5 % below the level that would have prevailed without the pandemic. Despite massively falling back on short­time working schemes, an estimated 820,000 jobs were lost due to the crisis. The government will run a record high budget deficit of 183 billion euros in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, deficits will remain substantial at 118 billion euros and 92 billion euros, respectively.

15. November 2020

Authors Oliver Holtemöller Stefan Kooths Claus Michelsen Torsten Schmidt Timo Wollmershäuser

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