Selectivity, Social Ties and Spatial Mobility – An Analysis of Preferences for Return Migration
In the public debate, the brain drain from East Germany is supposed to be the most critical trend regarding the development and catching-up of the New Länder. Therefore, potential for in- and re-migration has attracted much attention at least in the political context. Our contribution analyses the re-migration potential on the basis of data from a DFG research project focussing on the re-migration intentions of people formerly emigrated from Saxony-Anhalt. The analysis concentrates on the following aspects: the effect of job market success after emigration; the impact of social ties to the origin and the host region and on the selectivity of re-migration preferences. The econometric results confirm several expected effects: On the one hand an individual’s job market success reduces the intention to return. Likewise, the re-migration preference increases for people whose expectations were disappointed. On the other hand, the relevance of social ties to the origin region for re-migration dispositions is confirmed by the estimations. Yet, regarding selectivity of re-migration preferences in terms of human capital econometric results are somewhat ambiguous.