1. Publications
  2. Wirtschaft im Wandel, 12/2009
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Subsidized Vocational Education in East Germany: Stepping Stone or Dead End?

The aim of the study is to analyse whether the formally equal qualifications acquired during a subsidized vocational education induce equal employment opportunities compared to regular vocational training. This question is answered for adolescents in workplace-related training. Using replacement matching on the basis of a statistical distance function, we are able to control for selection effects resulting from different personal and profession-related characteristics and thus to identify an unbiased effect of the public support. The analysis is based on unique, very detailed data, the Youth Panel of the Halle Centre for Social Research (zsh). The results show that young people who successfully completed a workplace-related training are disadvantaged regarding their employment opportunities even when controlling for personal and profession-related influences. Besides a quantitative effect on the percentage of employed adolescents, the analysis shows differences in the job quality: The employed graduates of workplace-related training work in worse paid jobs, and less are employed in qualification adequate occupations compared to matchable graduates of regular vocational education.

16. December 2009

Authors Eva Dettmann

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Also in this issue

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Demographischer Wandel als ressortübergreifende Herausforderung – ein Kommentar

Alexander Kubis Lutz Schneider Marco Sunder

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 12, 2009

Abstract

Deutschland kommt in Europa eine Vorreiterrolle in Sachen demographischer Wandel zu, wobei die Bevölkerungsentwicklung innerhalb Deutschlands nicht einheitlich verläuft. So verändern sich nicht nur die Einwohnerzahlen in den Regionen unterschiedlich, sondern die Regionen altern auch in unterschiedlichem Ausmaß: Einige wenige Gegenden beispielsweise – vorwiegend die Boomstädte im Süden – gewinnen sogar an junger Bevölkerung hinzu, während starke Alterung hingegen im Zuge der Abwanderung junger Menschen und geringer Geburtenzahlen insbesondere auf die Neuen Bundesländer zutrifft – mit einer stärkeren Abnahme der Bevölkerungsdichte im ländlichen Raum. Mit der rückläufigen Zahl der Erwerbsfähigen wird oft die Frage verbunden, ob den betreffenden Regionen künftig die Fachkräfte ausgehen und somit die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung ausgebremst wird.

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Editorial

Jutta Günther

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 12, 2009

Abstract

Mit dem Jahr 2009 endet auch das „Europäische Jahr der Kreativität und Innovation“. Es diente dem erklärten Ziel, die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Europas zu unterstützen. Dabei ist Kreativität gar keine ökonomische Kategorie. Und Innovation? Die ganz sicher! Sie treibt die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und ist in weiten Teilen die Substanz des technischen Fortschritts.

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IWH-Industrieumfrage im November 2009: Deutliche Stimmungsaufhellung

Cornelia Lang

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 12, 2009

Abstract

Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe Ostdeutschlands hat sich das Geschäftsklima spürbar erwärmt, wie die Ergebnisse der IWH-Industrieumfrage vom November unter rund 300 Unternehmen zeigen. Die Unternehmen bewerten sowohl ihre Geschäftslage als auch ihre Geschäftsaussichten besser als noch im September: Der Saldo aus positiven und negativen Bewertungen ist in beiden Fällen seitdem deutlich angestiegen, und zwar um zehn Punkte bei der Lagebewertung und um zwölf Saldenpunkte bei den Erwartungen für die nächsten sechs Monate.

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International Climate Policy after Kyoto – Economic Challenges Ahead

Wilfried Ehrenfeld

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 12, 2009

Abstract

The signs are increasing that the gain in greenhouse gas emissions since the beginning of the 20th century causes the average global temperature to rise. Limiting the temperature rise to 2°C should at least avoid the worst consequences of global warming. This would require the greenhouse gas emissions to reach their maximum value by no later than 2015 and to be dramatically reduced worldwide from that time until 2050. From the economic perspective, there are a number of important questions: In the first place, how can the initial situation be described in economic categories? Therefore, the emissions should first of all be identified by region and sector and thereupon, the adjustment possibilities are to be outlined. Which costs and which revenues are associated with climate policy? The bandwidth of the estimated damage is between 5% and 20% of global gross domestic product (GDP) annually in the case of unmitigated climate change. These estimates are compared to around 1% of global GDP, which would be spent to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. How are the global targets to be distributed regionally and sectorally, and which economic instruments are recommended for this purpose? Obviously, tradable permits are preferred. Here, the initial assignment and the nature of the allocation on the one hand and the tradability on the other play a prominent role. What politico-economic conflicts arise and what recommendations can economists give to solve these conflicts goal-oriented? Finally, what is to recommend in terms of political economy in order to remain credible in particular in the sense of an international climate agreement?

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Poland Weathers the Crisis

Martina Kämpfe

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 12, 2009

Abstract

Expansion of economic activity in Poland in 2009 continued at a markedly lower level compared to previous years, but despite the falling external and domestic demand, economic recession did not happen until now. Early stabilisation measures, supported also by the European Community (EC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), helped to avoid substantial instabilities in the financial sector. It seems that Poland is not as hardly affected by the financial crisis as other countries. Unlike previous years, now net exports were the main driving force for growth – they more than compensated the decrease in domestic demand. Unemployment had risen up from the lowest level in the last decade, but still moderately due to measures of job security. Given the further shrinking labour demand, unemployment will increase despite modest economic activity. Fiscal policy has to meet challenges under the current economic crises: Excess expenditure and deficiency in receipts will deteriorate general government deficit in 2009 and 2010. Without adopted consolidation strategy, Polish convergence to the Euro area will have to be postponed.

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From District Capital to State Capital: What are the Consequences of Rebuilding the East German States for the System of Cities?

Albrecht Kauffmann

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 12, 2009

Abstract

20 years after the German unification, one may ask what consequences for the system of East German cities follow from the changes of the institutional framework. It may be expected that gains or losses of a location in the hierarchy of central places significantly affect the outcome of economic activity as well as the accumulation of – particularly human – capital. The reorganisation of countries on the territory of the former GDR that has elevated five former district capitals to the status of state capitals while the other ones became urban municipalities has created a model case whose implications were investigated by the IWH. The main objective was to identify a pattern of group formation within the former district capitals on the basis of socioeconomic indicators that coincides with the subgroups out of them with and without the status of a capital state. By means of cluster analysis, we have found that already from 1995 to 2000, differences between both groups with regard to income, structure of employment, human capital, and other indicators were significantly. In the period from 2002 to 2007, the spread of income is growing not only between both groups but also within the group of state capitals, dividing their cluster. We can conclude that the allocation of political institutions of higher centrality has influence on local economic development.

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