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Upturn in Germany Strengthens in Spite of Global Economic Risks

The German economy is already in the fifth year of a moderate upturn, which will continue in 2018. Global economic activity is also expanding rapidly. The increase in economic policy uncertainty seems to have few adverse effects on the world economy. The economic policy agenda of the new US government carries both risks and opportunities for the economic outlook for the US and the world. The Joint Economic Forecast predicts consumer prices in advanced economies to increase by 1.9% in 2018 and expects a change in the ECB’s policy.

22. April 2017

Authors Roland Döhrn Ferdinand Fichtner Oliver Holtemöller Stefan Kooths Timo Wollmershäuser

Suggested Reading

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Upturn in Germany Strengthens in Spite of Global Economic Risks: Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2017

Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose

in: Externe Monographien, 2017

Abstract

The German economy is already in the fifth year of a moderate upturn. Capacity utilization is gradually increasing, and aggregate production capacities are now likely to have slightly exceeded their normal utilisation levels. However, cyclical dynamics remain low compared to earlier periods of recoveries, as consumption expenditures, which do not exhibit strong fluctuations, have been the main driving force so far. In addition, net migration increases potential output, counteracting a stronger ca-pacity tightening. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand by 1.5 % (1.8 % adjusted for calendar effects) and 1.8 % in the next year. Unemployment is expected to fall to 6.1 % in 2016, to 5.7 % in 2017 and 5.4 % in 2018.

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