The East-West German Gap in Revenue Productivity: Just a Tale of Output Prices?
Matthias Mertens, Steffen Müller
Journal of Comparative Economics,
forthcoming
Abstract
East German manufacturers’ revenue productivity is substantially below West German levels, even three decades after German unification. Using firm-product-level data with product quantities and prices, we analyze the role of product specialization and show that the prominent “extended work bench hypothesis” cannot explain these sustained productivity differences. Eastern firms specialize in simpler product varieties generating less consumer value and being manufactured with less or cheaper inputs. Yet, such specialization cannot explain the productivity gap because Eastern firms are physically less productive for given product prices. Hence, there is a genuine price-adjusted physical productivity disadvantage of Eastern compared to Western firms.
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Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions
Christiane Baumeister, Dimitris Korobilis, Thomas K. Lee
Review of Economics and Statistics,
forthcoming
Abstract
We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market funda-mentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.
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Capital Requirements, Market Structure, and Heterogeneous Banks
Carola Müller
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 15,
2022
Abstract
Bank regulators interfere with the efficient allocation of resources for the sake of financial stability. Based on this trade-off, I compare how different capital requirements affect default probabilities and the allocation of market shares across heterogeneous banks. In the model, banks‘ productivity determines their optimal strategy in oligopolistic markets. Higher productivity gives banks higher profit margins that lower their default risk. Hence, capital requirements indirectly aiming at high-productivity banks are less effective. They also bear a distortionary cost: Because incumbents increase interest rates, new entrants with low productivity are attracted and thus average productivity in the banking market decreases.
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Spillover Effects in Empirical Corporate Finance
Tobias Berg, Markus Reisinger, Daniel Streitz
Journal of Financial Economics,
No. 3,
2021
Abstract
Despite their importance, the discussion of spillover effects in empirical research often misses the rigor dedicated to endogeneity concerns. We analyze a broad set of workhorse models of firm interactions and show that spillovers naturally arise in many corporate finance settings. This has important implications for the estimation of treatment effects: i) even with random treatment, spillovers lead to a complicated bias, ii) fixed effects can exacerbate the spillover-induced bias. We propose simple diagnostic tools for empirical researchers and illustrate our guidance in an application.
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Advances in Using Vector Autoregressions to Estimate Structural Magnitudes
Christiane Baumeister, James D. Hamilton
UC San Diego,
2021
Abstract
This paper discusses drawing structural conclusions from vector autoregressions. We call attention to a common error in estimating structural elasticities and show how to correctly estimate elasticities even in the case when one knows only the effects of a single structural shock and the covariance matrix of the reduced-form residuals. We describe the traditional approach to identification as a claim to have exact prior information about the structural model and propose Bayesian inference as a way to acknowledge that prior information is imperfect or subject to error. We raise concerns about the way that results are typically reported for VARs that are set-identified using sign and other restrictions.
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07.09.2021 • 22/2021
IWH Bankruptcy Update: Ongoing Decline in Bankruptcy Statistics
After hitting an all-time low in July, the number of firms declaring bankruptcy in Germany fell yet again in August. A new low was also registered in the number of impacted jobs. These are the headline findings of the IWH Bankruptcy Report, published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), which provides a monthly update on German bankruptcy statistics.
Steffen Müller
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Podcast "Die Wirtschaftsprüfer"
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15.06.2021 • 16/2021
Increase in personal contacts spurs economic activity
This summer the economic outlook in Germany is bright. As the pandemic is in retreat, the restrictions that have hampered many service activities are likely to be gradually lifted, and a strong boost in private purchases can be expected. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that gross domestic product will increase by 3.9% in 2021 and by 4.0% in 2022. Production in East Germany is expected to increase by 3% in both years, respectively.
Oliver Holtemöller
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08.06.2021 • 14/2021
IWH Bankruptcy Update: Still No Bankruptcy Wave in Sight; Number of Impacted Jobs Reaches New Low
In May the number of corporate bankruptcies once again fell significantly. A jump in June is also unlikely, according to early indicators assessed by IWH. The number of jobs impacted by bankruptcy has fallen to the lowest level witnessed since the Corona outbreak. The IWH Bankruptcy Report, published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), provides a monthly update on German bankruptcy statistics.
Steffen Müller
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