Wirtschaftswachstum, Staatsfinanzen und Treibhausgas-Emissionen in der mittleren Frist
Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner, Alessandro Sardone, Götz Zeddies
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 4,
2022
Abstract
Die mittelfristige Projektion der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Lage in Deutschland beinhaltet, dass das Wirtschaftswachstum mit 1% pro Jahr in den kommenden sechs Jahren in etwa genauso hoch ausfällt wie in den vergangenen sechs Jahren. Der Staatshaushalt bleibt im Defizit, aber der Schuldenstand geht relativ zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt ab dem Jahr 2024 wieder zurück. Bei diesem Tempo der wirtschaftlichen Expansion werden die Emissionen mittelfristig zwar weiter zurückgehen, aber deutlich langsamer als nötig, um die nationalen Klimaschutzziele zu erreichen.
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Energy Crisis: Inflation, Recession, Welfare Loss
Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Torsten Schmidt, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 10,
2022
Abstract
The German economy is being hit hard by the crisis in the gas markets. Skyrocketing gas prices are drastically increasing energy costs accompanied by a massive withdrawal of purchasing power. This is pushing the German economy into a recession. At the same time, the institutes conclude that there will be no gas shortage in the coming winter under normal weather conditions. Nevertheless, the supply situation remains extremely tight. Against this background, economic output is likely to have already fallen slightly in the third quarter. In the winter half-year, a significant decline is expected due to the rising cost of energy, weakening consumer demand and the weakening global economy.
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IWH Alumni The IWH would like to stay in contact with its former employees. We...
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Wirtschaft im Wandel Die Zeitschrift „Wirtschaft im Wandel“ will eine breite...
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Without Russian Gas, a Sharp Recession Looms in Germany
Martin Gornig, Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Torsten Schmidt, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 5,
2022
Abstract
The German economy is steering through difficult waters. Tail winds from fading pandemic restrictions, supply-side bottlenecks in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis, and shock waves caused by the war in Ukraine are dragging the economy in opposing directions. The common factor is the price-driving effect. Abruptly stopping gas deliveries from Russia to the European Union would drive the German economy into a deep recession. In this case, the accumulated loss of overall economic output would amount to 220 billion euro by the end of 2023.
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