26.04.2022 • 10/2022
Regional effects of a recession in Germany triggered by an import stop for Russian gas
A halt in Russian gas deliveries would lead to a recession in the German economy. Not all regions would be equally affected: The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects a significantly stronger slump in economic output in regions where the manufacturing sector has a large weight than elsewhere.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Without Russian Gas, a Sharp Recession Looms in Germany
Martin Gornig, Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Torsten Schmidt, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 5,
2022
Abstract
The German economy is steering through difficult waters. Tail winds from fading pandemic restrictions, supply-side bottlenecks in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis, and shock waves caused by the war in Ukraine are dragging the economy in opposing directions. The common factor is the price-driving effect. Abruptly stopping gas deliveries from Russia to the European Union would drive the German economy into a deep recession. In this case, the accumulated loss of overall economic output would amount to 220 billion euro by the end of 2023.
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COVID-19 Financial Aid and Productivity: Has Support Been Well Spent?
Carlo Altomonte, Maria Demertzis, Lionel Fontagné, Steffen Müller
Policy Contribution,
2021
Abstract
While support schemes during the pandemic were not targeted at protecting ‘good’ firms, financial support mostly went to those with the capacity to survive and succeed. Labour schemes have been effective in protecting employment.
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COVID-19 Financial Aid and Productivity: Has Support Been Well Spent?
Carlo Altomonte, Maria Demertzis, Lionel Fontagné, Steffen Müller
Bruegel-Policy Contributions,
No. 21,
2021
Abstract
Most European Union countries have made good progress with vaccinating their populations against COVID-19 and are now seeing a rebound in economic activity. While the scarring effects of the crisis and the long-term implications of the pandemic are only partially understood, the effects of support given to firms can be evaluated in order to help plan the removal of crisis support. An analysis of France, Germany and Italy shows the potential for ‘cleansing effects’ in that it was the least-productive firms that have been affected most by the crisis. While support was generally not targeted at protecting good firms only, financial support went by and large to those with the capacity to survive and succeed. Labour schemes have been effective in protecting employment.
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Aspects of the Political Economy of the European Banking Union
Lena Tonzer
PolEconFin Initiative,
2021
Abstract
The regulatory architecture of the financial system has significantly changed after the global financial crisis of 2008/09. In Europe, the introduction of the Single Rulebook has been a major change and provides the legal foundation for the European Banking Union (EBU). The Single Rulebook consists of a regulation, the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR), and three main directives targeting capital regulation and compensation of managers, harmonization of deposit insurance schemes, as well as resolution and restructuring rules (Capital Requirements Directive (CRD IV), Deposit Guarantee Schemes Directive (DGSD), Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD)).
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International Trade Barriers and Regional Employment: The Case of a No-Deal Brexit
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Oliver Holtemöller
Journal of Economic Structures,
No. 11,
2021
Abstract
We use the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) combined with regional sectoral employment data to estimate the potential regional employment effects of international trade barriers. We study the case of a no-deal Brexit in which imports to the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) would be subject to tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. First, we derive the decline in UK final goods imports from the EU from industry-specific international trade elasticities, tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. Using input–output analysis, we estimate the potential output and employment effects for 56 industries and 43 countries on the national level. The absolute effects would be largest in big EU countries which have close trade relationships with the UK, such as Germany and France. However, there would also be large countries outside the EU which would be heavily affected via global value chains, such as China, for example. The relative effects (in percent of total employment) would be largest in Ireland followed by Belgium. In a second step, we split up the national effects on the NUTS-2 level for EU member states and additionally on the county (NUTS-3) level for Germany. The share of affected workers varies between 0.03% and 3.4% among European NUTS-2 regions and between 0.15% and 0.4% among German counties. A general result is that indirect effects via global value chains, i.e., trade in intermediate inputs, are more important than direct effects via final demand.
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Aktuelle Trends: Auf dem Weg zur europäischen Bankenunion: Verzögerte Umsetzung der Abwicklungsrichtlinie
Michael Koetter, Thomas Krause, Eleonora Sfrappini, Lena Tonzer
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2021
Abstract
In Reaktion auf die Erfahrungen aus der letzten Finanzmarktkrise veröffentlichte die Europäische Kommission im Mai 2014 die Richtlinie zur Sanierung und Abwicklung von Kreditinstituten (Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, BRRD). Die Richtlinie legt Regeln zur Abwicklung und Restrukturierung von Banken einschließlich eines Bail-in-Mechanismus fest, der das Verlustrisiko beim Scheitern einer Bank vorrangig deren Anteilseignern und Gläubigern aufbürdet.
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