Germany 2004: Only a transitory economic stimulus from moving tax cuts forward
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2003
Abstract
In summer 2003 the German economy once again did not overcome the stagnation, which by now lasted three years. Only by the end of this year the German economy will begin to receive stronger support from a then further improved world economy. In the past months both US and European monetary policy have provided sufficient liquidity by lowering interest rates. In the USA, additional support is provided by fiscal policy; tax reductions and rebates increase domestic demand. Overall, Gross Domestic Product in the US will increase by 2.1% this year; in the euro area GDP will merely expand by a modest 0.8%. For Germany one of its key sectors will not be able to lift the economy as usual and GDP, when compared to last year, will only stagnate. Provided by the brought forward tax reform 2000 the coming year will begin with a stimulus to the German economy. The tax reductions, though, will have limited effect on aggregate production, as the increased consumption will not be able to stimulate investment. Accounting for calendar effects GDP in Germany will increase by at least 1% in 2004 compared with this year, but due to several additional working days in 2004, the unadjusted rate of expansion will be 1.7%. No substantial improvements are expected for the job market.
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Does Germany need a tax on property? - A commentary
Kristina vanDeuverden
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2003
Abstract
Steuern werden vor allem aus fiskalischen Gründen erhoben. Mit der zunehmenden Anspannung der öffentlichen Finanzen wird auf der Suche nach neuen Einnahmequellen vielfach der Ruf nach der Wiedereinführung der Vermögensteuer laut. Eine solche Steuer bestand bis zum 31.12.1996 und ist vorrangig aus juristischen Gründen abgeschafft worden. Sie war eine reine Ländersteuer und erbrachte im letzten Jahr ihrer vollen Gültigkeit 4,6 Mrd. Euro. Um die Länder für die Einnahmeausfälle zu entschädigen, wurden im Gegenzug die Erbschaftsteuer (um 1,1 Mrd. Euro) und die Grunderwerbsteuer (um 2,7 Mrd. Euro) erhöht. Die Abschaffung der Vermögensteuer führte damit per saldo zu Mindereinnahmen in Höhe von 0,9 Mrd. Euro.
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The flood disaster and GDP in Germany
Udo Ludwig, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2002
Abstract
The flood at Elbe, Danube and their tributary streams destroyed billion Euros worth of Capital Stock. GDP, though, does not include Capital Stock, but production. On the basis of plausible assumptions the production interruptions caused by the flood are estimated for Germany and the most severely affected areas of Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt. Considering the “set-aside” funds for restoration and with the help of the Input-Output-Model the direct effects on production and employment within the different economic sectors are being calculated. The results are compared with the foregone consumption due to the delayed next step of the tax reform. On balance clear effects can be observed in construction.
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Current Trends: Corporate income tax revenue for the first time negative
Kristina vanDeuverden
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2002
Abstract
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Local Taxes and Capital Structure Choice
Reint E. Gropp
International Tax and Public Finance,
No. 1,
2002
Abstract
This paper investigates the question of taxation and capital structure choice in Germany. Germany represents an excellent case study for investigating the question of whether and to what extent taxes influence the debt-equity decision of firms, because the relative tax burdens on debt and equity vary greatly across communities. German communities levy local taxes on profits and long-term debt payments in addition to personal and corporate taxes on the federal level. A stylized model is presented incorporating these taxes. The model shows that local taxes create substantial incentives for firms to use debt financing. Furthermore, the paper empirically investigates the effect of local business taxes on the share of debt used to finance incremental investments by German firms. I find that local taxes significantly influence the capital structure choice of firms, controlling for a large number of other factors. In an extensive sensitivity analysis the tax effect are found to be robust across several different specifications.
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Zum zeitlichen Wirkunsprofil bedeutender Steuerentlastungen privater Haushalte auf den privaten Konsum in Deutschland
Hans-Joachim Rudolph
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 151,
2001
Abstract
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Climate protection policy in the housing sector: Lacking impact and need for action
Steffen Hentrich
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2001
Abstract
Energy savings in the rental housing sector may contribute to the reduction of global greenhouse gas emission. However, emissions have gone up since the early nineties despite of large energy saving potentials. In general the effects of energy saving regulations and support programmes were overestimated. Unfortunately, these programmes ignore market specific restraints.
Markets do not provide optimal incentives to prevent emissions since the costs of greenhouse gas emissions are not fully internalised in fuel prices. Special characteristics of rental housing market in Germany enhance this deficit. Consequently profitable measures of saving energy are neglected. Overall the effectiveness of regulations and support programmes suffers.
Therefore it is necessary to strengthen energy saving incentives. Suitable instruments would include a gradual rise in fuel taxes (Öko-Steuer), a reduction of rental housing market control and measures to improve the transparency of energy consumption.
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FDI and Corporate Tax Revenue: Tax Harmonization or Competition?
Reint E. Gropp, Kristina Kostial
Finance & Development,
No. 2,
2001
Abstract
OECD countries with high corporate tax rates have experienced both high net outflows of foreign direct investment and a decline in corporate tax revenue. Identification of a causal link between these two trends has implications for the debate on tax harmonization versus tax competition.
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FDI and Corporate Tax Revenue: Tax Harmonization or Competition?
Reint E. Gropp, Kristina Kostial
Finance & Development,
No. 2,
2001
Abstract
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Economic prospects 2001: Tax reform keeps German economic activity going
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2001
Abstract
Am Ende des Jahres 2000 hat sich das Konjunkturbild eingetrübt. In Deutschland und Europa ist der Zuwachs der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion schwächer geworden. Die Stimmung bei Produzenten und Verbrauchern hat sich vor allem wegen der Belastungen durch den hohen Ölpreis verschlechtert. So war auch die Sachlage, als die Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute im Herbst den Tempoverlust der Konjunktur für 2001 bezifferten. Danach griff eine neue Welle von Konjunkturpessimismus um sich. Das IWH hat sich dem nicht angeschlossen. Denn neben den Anzeichen für Verschlechterungen gibt es auch welche für Besserungen: Der Ölpreis geht wohl schneller als erwartet zurück, der Euro scheint sich zu stabilisieren. Beides nimmt Druck von den Preisen....
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