Seniorität, spezifisches Kapital und Beschäftigungsmobilität - Warum Ältere seltener wechseln
Lutz Schneider
T. Salzmann, V. Skirbekk, M. Weiberg (Hrsg.), Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels,
2010
Abstract
The analysis focuses on the relationship of ageing and labour mobility. We answer the questions if i) mobility is wage driven, if ii) older workers are still able to generate wage increases by job switching and if iii) lacking wage incentives can explain the existing mobility gap of older workers. The empirical analysis is limited to labour mobility in terms of changing job or occupation. We estimate a multi equation model known as switching regression model with endogenous switching. The data stem from the IAB employment sample. We firstly show that expected wage increases encourage job switching. Secondly, we find evidence for lower expected wage increases due to job changes for older workers. Thirdly we find that the mobility gap of older workers is only partly attributable to reduced wage incentives of a job switch.
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Energy Efficiency of the Housing Stock: Are potential savings overrated?
Claus Michelsen, S. Müller-Michelsen
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2010
Abstract
A core element of the European Climate Protection Policy is the reduction of Energy usage in private households. Legal instruments focus particularly on private multifamily housing. When refurbishing or building a new home, the German regulation for energy saving in buildings and building systems, Energieeinsparverordnung (EnEV 2009), thereby formulates relatively strict standards on energy conservation. But these standards mainly address the technical potentials of energy efficiency gains instead of considering market conditions and different types of housing, especially their age. Theory suggests that legal settings therefore retain owners to refurbish their homes, when returns on investment are negative, especially in regions where market conditions do not allow for higher rents or the costs of refurbishment are too high.
The article presents evidence for these theoretical considerations: based on a large scale sample provided by the company ista Germany, it can be shown, that energy usage differs by the age of dwellings and by the standard of refurbishment. Data suggests that the assumed potentials of energy conservation, which are mainly motivated by technical considerations, are too high. The differences may be a result of different cost functions of refurbishment. Further evidence for this finding is provided by architectural considerations.
As a result, the article suggests to legally distinguishing between different types of housing and to consider market conditions, when providing public funding for energy efficiency. It is suggested to implement a two multidimensional strategy, considering climate protection, urban development issues and the rationality of real estate investors.
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Editorial
Herbert S. Buscher
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2010
Abstract
Armut, absolute Armut, so wie wir sie von Bildern aus Entwicklungsländern kennen, dürfte in Europa eher die Ausnahme sein. Auch wenn absolute Armut bei uns kein existenzielles Problem ist, so drängt doch die zunehmende relative Verarmung seit einigen Jahren verstärkt in das öffentliche Bewusstsein. Relative Armut, oder genauer: das Armutsrisiko, betrifft weite Schichten der Bevölkerung, wobei bestimmte Gruppen diesem Risiko in erhöhtem Maße ausgesetzt sind. Zu diesen gehören u. a. geringqualifizierte Personen, Personen, die sich in einer prekären Beschäftigungssituation befinden, Alleinerziehende, Langzeitarbeitslose, Personen mit einem Migrationshintergrund und ältere Menschen. Kinderarmut und die Armut älterer Menschen werden hierbei als besonders problematisch angesehen: Armut bereits im frühen Alter verbaut systematisch Berufs- und Aufstiegschancen und damit potenzielle Einkommensquellen, die vor Armut schützen. Altersarmut wird als Demütigung empfunden, weil man sich trotz eines langen Erwerbslebens im Alter weniger Wünsche erfüllen kann und dies in diesem Lebensabschnitt kaum mehr auszugleichen vermag. Und es gibt eine wachsende Gruppe von Menschen, deren Einkommen bereits heute so niedrig ist, dass es durch staatliche Transfers angehoben werden muss. Zwar wird gegenwärtig das Armutsproblem gelöst, aber künftig wird aufgrund niedriger Einkommen bei vielen eine ausreichende Altersvorsorge schwierig, sodass hier ein hohes Risiko zukünftiger Altersarmut besteht.
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Immigration to East Germany: Last chance 2011
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
Due to population ageing and shrinking Germany – particularly East Germany – experiences a demographic constellation causing remarkable economic and social problems. One option to cope with the demography based challenges is immigration. In a historical part the article firstly illustrates the history of immigration in Germany during the 20th century and concludes that substantial immigration initially occurred in the 1950th in the Western part of Germany when the so called “Gastarbeiter” were attracted to the West German labour market. Regions in East Germany, instead, show a rather low share of immigrants – a result of the GDR immigration policy that permitted only a low level of temporary migration.
However, prospects of success to stimulate immigration to East Germany seem to be rather limited. Firstly, since 2000 Germany as a whole faces reducing immigration numbers. Secondly, the low immigration experience and density of foreigners’ networks could torpedo existing immigration potentials. The sole opportunity for improving the migration balance seems to be the immigration from Central Eastern European regions. Spatial proximity might compensate for lacking migration incentives and initiate substantial migration flows towards East Germany. Yet, one should not have to high expectation regarding the dimension of immi-gration from Central Eastern Europe. Large parts of the migratory population already moved to other EU member states that implemented the Freedom of Movement for Workers immediately after 2004. Therefore, it seems to be crucial to stay away from every supplementary regulation that might discourage potential labour market migrants from Central East Europe after May 2011.
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Old Age Poverty – Causes and a Projection for 2023
Ingmar Kumpmann, Michael Gühne, Herbert S. Buscher
Abstract
Several factors bring about a rise in old age poverty in Germany, especially in East Germany. Using data from the German Socio-economic Panel (SOEP) we examine causes and extent of old age poverty in Germany. We begin our inquiry with a cross section regression in order to determine the impact of several factors on retirement incomes in Germany. In the second step we perform an income projection of today’s 50 to 55 year-old people for the year 2023. In doing so, we take into account different sources of income, including several forms of capital income and the calculated rent of owner-occupied houses and flats. We find a significant rise in old age poverty especially in East Germany as a consequence of rising unemployment after the German unification.
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Will there be a shortage of skilled labor? An East German perspective to 2015
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
Applied Economics Quarterly Supplement,
2009
Abstract
We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population aging and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period from 2009 to 2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In a second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plans to expand further education efforts and to hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
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Children, Career, and Compromises: To what Extent does Offspring Affect Labour Force Participation and Career Opportunities of Women in Germany?
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider, Marco Sunder
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2009
Abstract
Germany faces a substantial challenge from demographic change in the forthcoming decades. While large cohorts reach retirement age, the working-age population shrinks. One option to curtail economic effects of this imbalance is to increase female labour force participation. The study uses data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) to analyze the impact of children on careers of women in East and West Germany, respectively in terms of participation and realized wages or occupational prestige. Results indicate strong regional differences, with East German mothers returning much faster to the labour market than their western peers. Participation rates – especially full-time employment – of the latter group remain permanently below levels of childless women. Careers of East German mothers are hampered by a higher risk of unemployment. The mother wage gap is relatively large among western mothers and remains so even after taking into account previous experience and unobserved heterogeneity. The study documents a negative and statistically significant relationship between children and occupational prestige only for West Germany. The observed career differences between mothers in both parts of the country may be rooted in a larger supply of institutionalized child-care arrangements in East Germany.
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Produktivität – Alters- vs. Erfahrungseffekte
Lutz Schneider
Alterung und Arbeitsmarkt. Beiträge zur Jahrestagung 2007. Schriftenreihe der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Demographie, Band 3,
2008
Abstract
The contribution analysis the impact of the average age and experience of employees on the firm’s productivity using the linked employer employee data set from the IAB (LIAB). The inquiry is restricted to the manufacturing sector and distinguishes between a low-tech and a high-tech sector. We find an inverted u-shaped relationship between age and productivity. Experience supports productivity, however, the experience based effects are too small to compensate the negative impact of age at higher stages.
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Energy Efficient Homes in Germany: Lower Energy Requirement in the East and the South – Results of the ista-IWH-Energy-Efficiency-Index 2007
Claus Michelsen
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2009
Abstract
At the latest since the oil crisis in the beginning of the 1970s, energy efficiency of homes became a widely discussed topic. In the past, it were in first line aspects of the scarcity of fossil energy sources that motivated the debate. Nowadays, climate protection is a main goal of the European energy policy. For this purpose, a new instrument was introduced in 2009. Europe-wide, the “Energy Performance Certificate” for buildings presents detailed information on the required energy for heating, warm water and (indirectly) the resulting costs for tenants. This instrument is designed to provide further information for consumers to influence their behavior in favor of energy efficient buildings.
Until now, there is only little information on spatial aspects of the energy efficiency of housing in Germany. This article presents data on the level of Germany’s NUTS2 regions. In our calculations, we include information on more than 2.6 million flats, interpolating it representatively for the total stock of multifamily buildings and considering the regional climate.
The results of the first ista-IWH-Energy-Efficiency-Index indicate large differences between regions. The required energy for housing is much lower in the eastern and southern parts of Germany, compared to the western or northern parts. Explanations can be seen in a different structure of the housing stock (e.g. age of construction, level of refurbishment). Moreover, first analyses of the market structure indicate that owner occupied flats are more efficient in energy requirement than rental flats. Vacancy rates, the duration of occupation of rented flats and the level of regional income play an additional role for the energy efficiency of the regional housing stock.
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Entwicklung des Fachkräftebedarfs in Thüringen bis 2015
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Christian Schmeißer, Dirk Trocka, Marco Sunder
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 2,
2009
Abstract
On behalf of the Thuringian Ministry of Economics, Technology, and Labor, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) has conducted a survey of current labor market conditions in Thuringia. We forecast changes in labor demand within occupation groups in the period 2009-2015. According to our predictions, 80 000 additional workers are required both to replace older workers reaching retirement age and to accommodate industrial growth resulting from structural change. While the size of the working-age population will be large enough to meet this demand, there is a risk of occupational mismatch and lack of labor market integration of certain groups. In this context we devise policy recommendations. In addition, we present results of a survey of approximately 1 000 Thuringian companies. Interviews were conducted by IWH in the summer of 2008 and cover topics on previous and future staffing policy. The questionnaire focuses on companies’ strategies to meet their demand for skilled labor and their evaluation of potential measures in the fields of education, labor market, and economic policy.
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