Klimaschutz und Kohleausstieg: Politische Strategien und Maßnahmen bis 2030 und darüber hinaus
Pao-Yu Oei, Casimir Lorenz, Sophie Schmalz, Hanna Brauers, Philipp Herpich, Christian von Hirschhausen, Claudia Kemfert, Barbara Dröschel, Jan Hildebrand, Juri Horst, Uwe Klann, Patrick Matschoss, Michael Porzig, Irina Rau, Bernhard Wern, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Gerhard Heimpold, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Christoph Schult, Hauke Hermann, Dirk Heyen, Katja Schumacher, Cornelia Ziehm
Pao-Yu Oei et al., Klimaschutz und Kohleausstieg: Politische Strategien und Maßnahmen bis 2030 und darüber hinaus. Abschlussbericht. Climate Change 27/2019. Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt,
2019
Abstract
The present study examines the socio-economic consequences of a climate policy-driven coal phase-out in Germany. A focus lies on the lignite industry – especially in the lignite regions. In a first step, the regions are spatially defined and described. Additional analysis is based on energy economic modelling. The model examines phase-out scenarios, which differ in the chosen criteria for the order of power plant closure (specific emissions or plant age). An input-output-model and a regional macroeconomic model build up on these phase-out pathways and examine the socio economic effects of the phase-out in the lignite regions as well as in the rest of Germany. The combination of both models offers the advantage to consider the phase-out from different perspective and hence derive different and more robust effects. The models show, on the one hand, that in an early phase-out the negative effects of structural change are visible earlier. On the other hand, recuperative effects can counteract the negative consequences according to the regional economic model.
Furthermore, the structural change creates economic opportunities. Those opportunities are primarily diversified economic activities. Case studies show significant employment potentials for the lignite regions. New jobs in renewable energies and energetic optimization of buildings can already counteract the negative employment effects associated with the investigated structural change. The study concludes, describing accompanying political instruments that can support the regions on their way to master the challenges of the up-coming structural change.
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Zu den Effekten eines beschleunigten Braunkohleausstiegs auf Beschäftigung und regionale Arbeitnehmerentgelte
Oliver Holtemöller, Christoph Schult
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2019
Abstract
Ohne weitere staatliche Maßnahmen können die Klimaschutzziele der Bundesregierung nicht erreicht werden. Eine Möglichkeit, Emissionen zu reduzieren, ist der Ausstieg aus der Braunkohleverbrennung. Die Braunkohlenwirtschaft zahlt allerdings doppelt so hohe Löhne im Vergleich zum durchschnittlichen Lohnniveau. Der Braunkohleausstieg wird voraussichtlich Einkommenseinbußen und Abwanderung aus den Braunkohleregionen mit sich bringen.
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Alumni
IWH Alumni The IWH would like to stay in contact with its former employees. We...
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Joint Economic Forecast
Joint Economic Forecast The joint economic forecast is an instrument for evaluating...
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19.04.2018 • 7/2018
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2018: Germany’s Economic Experts Raise Forecast Slightly
Berlin, 19 April – Germany’s leading economic experts raised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019 slightly in their Spring Joint Economic Forecast released on Thursday in Berlin. They now expect economic growth of 2.2 percent for this year and 2.0 percent for 2019, versus 2.0 percent and 1.8 percent respectively in their autumn forecast. “The German economy is still booming, but the air is getting thinner as unused capacities are shrinking“, notes Timo Wollmershaeuser, ifo Head of Economic Forecasting. Commenting on the new German government’s economic policy, he adds: “It is precisely when the government’s coffers are full that fiscal policy should reflect the implications of its actions for overall economic stability and the sustainability of public finances. The extension of statutory pension benefits outlined in the coalition agreement runs counter to the idea of sustainability.”
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IWH FDI Micro Database
IWH FDI Micro Database The IWH FDI Micro Database (FDI = Foreign Direct...
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IWH Construction Survey
IWH Construction Survey From 1993 until the first quarter of 2017, the IWH...
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29.09.2016 • 40/2016
Joint Economic Forecast: German Economy on Track – Economic Policy needs to be Realigned
Thanks to a stable job market and solid consumption, the German economy is experiencing a moderate upswing. The GDP is expected to increase by 1.9 percent this year, 1.4 percent in 2017, and 1.6 percent in 2018, according to the Gemeinschaftsdiagnose (GD, joint economic forecast) that was prepared by five of Europe’s leading economic research institutes on behalf of the Federal Government. The most recent GD, which was released in April, predicted a GDP growth rate of 1.6 percent for 2016 and 1.5 percent for 2017.
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Ceremonial Encapsulation and the Diffusion of Renewable Energy Technology in Germany
Iciar Dominguez Lacasa
Journal of Economic Issues,
No. 4,
2014
Abstract
This inquiry employs ideas advanced by institutionalist thinker Paul Dale Bush to shed light on technology diffusion in Germany’s electrical generation and distribution industry. Research findings suggest that what Bush labeled as ceremonial dominance affects outcomes in technology selection. Evidence suggests that fossil fuel and nuclear technologies have remained favored by power producers despite the externalized environmental costs to society associated with their implementations. Advances in government policy have indeed created a framework that favorably accommodates renewable energy technologies. However, what Bush labeled ceremonial dominance is shown to persist and to contribute to ceremonial encapsulation. Consequently, renewable energy technologies have diffused only to the point that the powers behind the industry remain in dominant positions. Although there is measurable, incremental technological change in the electrical power industry, in light of the urgency of climate change problems, technologies supporting the electrical power system need to be selected more judiciously.
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