IWH Construction Survey
IWH Construction Survey From 1993 until the first quarter of 2017, the IWH...
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Wirtschaft im Wandel
Wirtschaft im Wandel Mit seiner Zeitschrift "Wirtschaft im Wandel" will das IWH...
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Significant Cooling of the Economy — Political Risks High
Roland Döhrn, Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Claus Michelsen, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst,
forthcoming
Abstract
The German economy has cooled noticeably since mid-2018, and the long-term upswing has thus apparently come to an end. This weaker momentum was triggered both by the international environment and by industry-specific events. The global economic environment has deteriorated — due in part to political risks — and the manufacturing sector is struggling with obstacles to production. Germany’s economy is currently going through a cooling-off phase in which capacity shortages in the economy as a whole are declining. The institutes expect economic growth of only 0.8% in 2019, which is more than one percentage point less than in autumn 2018.
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Demographic Change
Demographic Change Dossier ...
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East Germany
East Germany Rearguard Only investments in education will lead to a further catch-up ...
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Reports of the European Forecasting Network (EFN)
Reports of the European Forecasting Network (EFN) The European Forecasting...
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Joint Economic Forecast
Joint Economic Forecast The joint economic forecast is an instrument for evaluating...
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German Unification: Macroeconomic Consequences for the Country
Axel Lindner
F. Heinemann, U. Klüh, S. Watzka (eds): Monetary Policy, Financial Crises, and the Macroeconomy. Springer,
2017
Abstract
This paper shows basic macroeconomic consequences of the German unification for the country in time series spanning from 20 years before the event until 25 years thereafter. Essential findings can well be explained by elementary economic theory. Moreover, it is shown that the German economy had been off steady state already before unification in important aspects. In particular, a steep increase in the current account balance during the 1980s suggests that globalization strongly affected the German economy at that time. While unification stopped the trend to an ever more open economy and to a rising trade surplus for about 10 years, the fall of the iron curtain eventually even increased this trend in the long run.
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12.04.2017 • 19/2017
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2017: Upturn in Germany strengthens in spite of global economic risks
The German economy is already in the fifth year of a moderate upturn. According to the Gemeinschaftsdiagnose (GD, joint economic forecast) that was prepared by Germany’s five leading economic research institutes on behalf of the Federal Government, capacity utilization is gradually increasing, and aggregate production capacities are now likely to have slightly exceeded their normal utilisation levels. However, cyclical dynamics remain low compared to earlier periods of recoveries, as consumption expenditures, which do not exhibit strong fluctuations, have been the main driving force so far. In addition, net migration increases potential output, counteracting a stronger capacity tightening. “Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand by 1.5% (1.8% adjusted for calendar effects) and 1.8% in the next year. Unemployment is expected to fall to 6.1% in 2016, to 5.7% in 2017 and 5.4% in 2018”, says Oliver Holtemöller, Head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association. Inflation is expected to increase markedly over the forecast horizon. After an increase in consumer prices of only 0.5% in 2016, the inflation rate is expected to rise to 1.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. The public budget surplus will reduce only modestly. Public finances are slightly stimulating economic activity in the current year and are cyclically neutral in the year ahead.
Oliver Holtemöller
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