Old Age Poverty – Causes and a Projection for 2023
Ingmar Kumpmann, Michael Gühne, Herbert S. Buscher
Abstract
Several factors bring about a rise in old age poverty in Germany, especially in East Germany. Using data from the German Socio-economic Panel (SOEP) we examine causes and extent of old age poverty in Germany. We begin our inquiry with a cross section regression in order to determine the impact of several factors on retirement incomes in Germany. In the second step we perform an income projection of today’s 50 to 55 year-old people for the year 2023. In doing so, we take into account different sources of income, including several forms of capital income and the calculated rent of owner-occupied houses and flats. We find a significant rise in old age poverty especially in East Germany as a consequence of rising unemployment after the German unification.
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Innovation and Skills from a Sectoral Perspective: A Linked Employer-Employee Analysis
Lutz Schneider, Jutta Günther, Bianca Brandenburg
Economics of Innovation and New Technology,
2010
Abstract
Science and engineering skills as well as management and leadership skills are often referred to as sources of innovative activities within companies. Broken down into sectoral innovation patterns, this article examines the role of formal education, actual occupation and work experience in the innovation performance in manufacturing firms within a probit model. It uses unique micro data for Germany (LIAB) that contain information about corporate innovation activities and the qualification of employees in terms of formal education, actual professional status and work experience. We find clear differences in the human capital endowment between sectors according to the Pavitt classification. Sectors with a high share of highly skilled employees engage in above average product innovation (specialized suppliers and science-based industries). However, according to our estimation results, across as well as within these sectors a large share of highly skilled employees does not substantially increase the probability of a firm being innovative.
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Energy Efficient Homes in Germany: Lower Energy Requirement in the East and the South – Results of the ista-IWH-Energy-Efficiency-Index 2007
Claus Michelsen
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2009
Abstract
At the latest since the oil crisis in the beginning of the 1970s, energy efficiency of homes became a widely discussed topic. In the past, it were in first line aspects of the scarcity of fossil energy sources that motivated the debate. Nowadays, climate protection is a main goal of the European energy policy. For this purpose, a new instrument was introduced in 2009. Europe-wide, the “Energy Performance Certificate” for buildings presents detailed information on the required energy for heating, warm water and (indirectly) the resulting costs for tenants. This instrument is designed to provide further information for consumers to influence their behavior in favor of energy efficient buildings.
Until now, there is only little information on spatial aspects of the energy efficiency of housing in Germany. This article presents data on the level of Germany’s NUTS2 regions. In our calculations, we include information on more than 2.6 million flats, interpolating it representatively for the total stock of multifamily buildings and considering the regional climate.
The results of the first ista-IWH-Energy-Efficiency-Index indicate large differences between regions. The required energy for housing is much lower in the eastern and southern parts of Germany, compared to the western or northern parts. Explanations can be seen in a different structure of the housing stock (e.g. age of construction, level of refurbishment). Moreover, first analyses of the market structure indicate that owner occupied flats are more efficient in energy requirement than rental flats. Vacancy rates, the duration of occupation of rented flats and the level of regional income play an additional role for the energy efficiency of the regional housing stock.
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The Requirement of Qualified Workers in Thuringia until 2015: Forecast and Policy Recommendations
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Christian Schmeißer, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2009
Abstract
We forecast the number of qualified workers required in the German federal state Thuringia until 2015 on the basis of the manpower requirement approach. Disaggregated by types of qualification, this method distinguishes between two sources of recruitment requirements: replacement demand for old workers and expansion demand to reflect structural changes of industry sectors and productivity growth. Both components are calculated from register data on employment covered by social security. Relative to current employment, recruitment requirements vary across occupations. A comparison of recruitment requirements for medium-skilled workers with the structure of vocational training reveals potential mismatch between demand and supply of medium-skilled labor in the near future if the composition of apprenticeship programs remains unchanged. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
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Shadow Budgets, Fiscal Illusion and Municipal Spending: The Case of Germany
Peter Haug
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2009
Abstract
The paper investigates the existence of fiscal illusion in German municipalities with special focus on the revenues from local public enterprises. These shadow budgets tend to increase the misperception of municipal tax prices and seem to have been neglected in the literature. Therefore, an aggregated expenditure function has been estimated for all German independent cities applying an “integrated budget” approach, which means
that revenues and expenditures of the core budget and the local public enterprises are combined to one single municipal budget. The estimation results suggest that a higher relative share of local public enterprise revenues might increase total per capita spending as well as spending for non-obligatory municipal goods and services. Empirical evidence for other sources of fiscal illusion is mixed but some indications for debt illusion, renter illusion or the flypaper effect could be found.
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Firm Density in East Germany: Findings from the Business Register
Gerhard Heimpold
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2008
Abstract
The contribution focuses on the business density in East Germany in comparison with West Germany. For the purpose of the investigation, a new information source was used – the so-called Business Register. Business density in East Germany is of relevance for two reasons: First, when the wall came down in 1989, the East German economy suffered from the lack of private firms. Second, after 2000, a gap in terms of work places is still existent. The empirical data on business density in East Germany do not reveal an unequivocal picture. Measuring business density by comparing the number of firms with the respective number of population reveals a gap in terms of the number of businesses per 10 000 inhabitants in East Germany. The gap is above average with respect to firms in the manufacturing sector, and it is particularly high regarding larger manufacturing firms. Measuring the business density as a quota of the number of firms and the volume of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reveals a reverse picture: The business density in relation to GDP is on average higher in comparison with the respective value in West Germany. Maybe, the size of the East German market sets limits regarding the number of firms which may act there. However, the size of the domestic market is not so relevant for the firms belonging to the manufacturing sector and to the business-related services since they are expanding to a large extent due to their export activities. Though from the manufacturing sector, relativly positive development perspectives can be expected, the number of large firms per 10 000 inhabitants is relatively low in comparison with West Germany. Public support for strengthening the business landscape in the East German manufacturing sector remains on the agenda of economic policy in Germany.
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Foreign Subsidiaries in the East German Innovation System – Evidence from Manufacturing Industries
Jutta Günther, Björn Jindra, Johannes Stephan
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2008
Abstract
This paper analyses the extent of technological capability of foreign subsidiaries located in East Germany, and looks at the determinants of foreign subsidiaries’ technological sourcing behaviour. The theory of international production underlines the importance of strategic and regional level variables. However, existing empirical approaches omit by and large regional level factors. We employ survey evidence from the “FDI micro data- base” of the IWH, that was only recently made available, to conduct our analyses. We find that foreign subsidiaries are above average technologically active in comparison to the whole East German manufacturing. This can be partially explained by the industrial structure of foreign direct investment. However, only a limited share of foreign subsidiaries with R&D and/or innovation activity source technological knowledge from the East German innovation system. If a subsidiary follows a competence augmenting strategy or does local trade, it is more likely to source technological knowledge locally. The endowment of a region with human capital and a scientific infrastructure has a positive effect too. The findings suggest that foreign subsidiaries in East Germany are only partially linked with the regional innovation system. Policy implications are discussed.
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Determinants of International Fragmentation of Production in the European Union
Götz Zeddies
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 15,
2007
Abstract
The last decades were characterized by large increases in world trade, not only in absolute terms, but also in relation to world GDP. This was in large parts caused by increasing exchanges of parts and components between countries as a consequence of international fragmentation of production. Apparently, greater competition especially from the Newly Industrializing and Post-Communist Economies prompted firms in ‘high-wage’ countries to exploit international factor price differences in order to increase their international competitiveness. However, theory predicts that, beside factor price differences, vertical disintegration of production should be driven by a multitude of additional factors. Against this background, the present paper reveals empirical evidence on parts and components trade as an indicator for international fragmentation of production in the European Union. On the basis of a panel data approach, the main explanatory factors for international fragmentation of production are determined. The results show that, although their influence can not be neglected, factor price differences are only one out of many causes for shifting production to or sourcing components from foreign countries.
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Does Qualification Drive Innovation? A Microeconometric Analysis Using Linked-employer-employee Data
Bianca Brandenburg, Jutta Günther, Lutz Schneider
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 10,
2007
Abstract
Degree-level science and engineering skills as well as management and leadership skills are often referred to as a source of innovative activities within companies. Broken down by sectoral innovation patterns, this article examines the role of formal education and actual occupation for product innovation performance in manufacturing firms within a probit model. It uses unique micro data for Germany (LIAB) that contain detailed information about innovative activities and the qualification of employees. We find significant differences of the human capital endowment between sectors differentiated according to the Pavitt classification. Sectors with a high share of highly skilled employees engage in product innovation above average (specialized suppliers and science based industries). According to our hitherto estimation results, within these sectors the share of highly skilled employees does not, however, substantially increase the probability to be an innovative firm.
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Local Public Utilities' Profits and Municipal Expenses in Germany: An Empirical Analysis
Peter Haug, Birger Nerré
Proceedings of the 99th Annual Conference on Taxation (November 16-18), Washington DC,
2006
Abstract
German municipalities are currently struggling with growing budget deficits and other financial hardships. From a public choice point of view it seems tempting for vote-maximizing local governments to raise revenues from sources which create fiscal illusion or allow tax exports. An increasingly important revenue source of this kind are profits of local public utilities. In this paper we try to fill an empirical gap and provide data of the development of the profitability over time for selected German local public utilities. Furthermore, we develop and estimate a municipal expenditure function for a panel data set of large German cities . We found some slightly positive relationship between per capita expenses of the municipality and the disposable per capita profits of the local public utilities. This indicates that probably the German municipalities – according to our theoretical considerations – tend to burden their citizens as well as non-voters outside their boundaries with implicit taxes to satisfy their increasing financial needs.
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