International economic development still impedes growth in Central and Eastern Europe
Axel Brüggemann
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2002
Abstract
The world wide economic slow down has increasingly affected the transition economies. Lower demand in Western Europe for exports from Central and Eastern Europe has depressed industrial production and growth in the region. Strong domestic demand has managed to offset some of the negative external influences. In total the countries in Central and eastern Europe will grow with 3,1 % in 2002 and with 4,1% in 2003. The higher growth in 2003 results from the combination of a continuing strong domestic demand and amore favourabel external environment, as the world economy starts to recover in the second half of 2002. Inflation will continue to slow, while unemployment decreases only marginally. Higher growth will also lead to higher current account deficits.
The slowdown in 2001 has increased the risk potential for financial crises in Central and Eastern Europe. The forecast is build upon the assumption that no such crisis will occur, if a crisis does errupt the forecast will have to be revised downwards. The regular anlysis carried out by the IWH regarding the development of the risk potential, indicate particular high risks for Poland and to a somewhat lesser extent also for Hungary. As the unfavourable external economic conditions will persist for the coming months, a further increase in the risk potential can be expected.
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Economic Slowdown reaches Central and Eastern Europe: Problematic Poland
Axel Brüggemann, Thomas Linne
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2001
Abstract
Forecast for central and Eastern Europe for 2001 and 2002. Discussion of the high risk potential for financial crises in Poland as measured by the IWH early warning system and an analysis of the underlying reasons for this development.
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An early indicator for the development in the East German producing sector
Klaus Weyerstraß
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 144,
2001
Abstract
Die Einschätzung der künftigen ökonomischen Entwicklung spielt für die Entscheidungen der Wirtschaftssubjekte sowie der wirtschaftspolitischen Entscheidungsträger eine wichtige Rolle. Im Falle Ostdeutschlands ist der Bedarf an einem Frühindikator besonders groß, da zur Zeit keine unterjährige Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung veröffentlicht wird. Zudem wird das Konjunkturphänomen in Ostdeutschland durch Sonderentwicklungen überlagert. In diesem Diskussionspapier wird ein Frühindikator für die künftige Entwicklung im produzierenden Gewerbe Ostdeutschlands dargestellt. Dieser wird aus amtlichen Daten (Auftragseingänge, Zinsstruktur) sowie IWH-Umfragen gebildet.
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Further development and application of an early warning indicator system for observing and evaluating financial crises in prospective EU acceding countries and selected Central and Eastern European countries
Axel Brüggemann, Thomas Linne
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 4,
2001
Abstract
Seit Beginn der 1990er Jahre haben mehrere der Beitrittskandidatenländer für eine Mitgliedschaft in der Europäischen Union (EU) sowie Russland und die Ukraine Finanzkrisen durchlaufen. Das jüngst betroffene Land ist die Türkei, wo im November 2000 eine schwerwiegende Finanzkrise ausbrach und deren Folgen immer noch nicht gänzlich absehbar sind. Die Finanzkrisen umfassten dabei sowohl Währungskrisen als auch Bankenkrisen. Eine wichtige Rolle für den Ausbruch von Währungskrisen spielte die oftmalige Fixierung des Wechselkurses mit dem Ziel, das Preisniveau zu stabilisieren. Bei allerdings anhaltend hohen Inflationsraten mündete diese Politik in einer realen Aufwertung der inländischen Währungen und in einem Anstieg der Leistungsbilanzdefizite.
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Rising oil prices dampen upswing in Central and Eastern Europe
Axel Brüggemann
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 16,
2000
Abstract
The article analyzes and forecasts the economic development in the Central and Eastern European transition economies. Due to the oil price effect and subsequently slower growth in the euro area, growth in transition economies will experience a slight setback too. On the whole however, it will reamin strong both in 2001 and in 2002. Accompaning the decrease in economic growth, the risk for financial crises in the region has increased.
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Regional analysis of East Germany: A comparison of the economic situation of states, districts, and municipalities
Franz Barjak, Peter Franz, Gerhard Heimpold, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2000
Abstract
A decade after the German unification we look at the extent of economic differentiation within East Germany. This is achieved by help of a set of selected statistical indicators for the years 1991 to 1998. Comparisons are drawn a) between the East German jurisdictions and b) between West and East German jurisdictions. On the federal state (Laender) level it can be shown that each state has developped its own specific economic profile. Brandenburg is characterized by a positive net migration (suburban function for Berlin), relatively low unemployment and high GDP values, but relatively low entrepreneurial activities. Saxony has achieved the lowest unemployment, a good endowment with human capital, modern industrial technology, infrastructure, and entrepreneurial activities. Special features of Thuringia consist of a relatively large number of patent applications and a stable industrial base. The economic state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is characterized by low industrial investment, negative net migration, and high unemployment. A special feature of this federal state is the intense investmenr in tourist services. Saxony-Anhalt registers the highest decrease in the numbers of industrial workers between 1991 and 1998 and the highest unemployment. On the other side it shows the highest amount of investment, especially in chemical industry and in mineral oil processing.
On the county level four clusters can be identified by means of a cluster analysis: A “cluster of counties with severe economic weaknesses” with a bias in the regions indutrialized in an early stage, a “cluster with a high human capital potential and suburbanization loss” consisting of 21 cities, a “cluster of counties with good economic results” predominantly surrounding the larger cities, and a “cluster of counties with SME growth potential” concentrating in Thuringia and Saxony.
The results at the city level show that the larger cities above 100.000 inhabitants, especially Dresden and Leipzig, do better than the smaller cities. Jena in Thuringia has specialized as a location for R&D, Zwickau in Saxony as a location for the automobile industry. Altogether the economic differences between the East German federal states, counties, and cities still are less pronounced than the degree of differentiation of their West German counterparts.
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Different risk potentials for currency turbulences in Central and Eastern Europe
Axel Brüggemann, Thomas Linne
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 13,
1999
Abstract
Empirisch gestützte Indikatorensysteme wie der Signalansatz können auf eine einfache und transparente Art Risikopotentiale für Währungsturbulenzen aufzeigen. Eine Anwendung des Signalansatzes auf verschiedene Währungskrisen in Mittel- und Osteuropa zeigt, dass die Krisen von nichtdurchhaltbaren Entwicklungen getrieben wurden und nicht das Resultat von Ansteckungseffekten sind. Zusätzlich wird ein Ausblick auf das momentan bestehende Krisenpotential der Region vorgenommen.
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Early business cycle indicators for the European Monetary Union
Michael Seifert
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 87,
1999
Abstract
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