Reports of the European Forecasting Network (EFN)
Reports of the European Forecasting Network (EFN) The European Forecasting...
See page
IWH FDI Micro Database
IWH FDI Micro Database The IWH FDI Micro Database (FDI = Foreign Direct...
See page
East Germany
The Nasty Gap 30 years after unification: Why East Germany is still 20% poorer than the...
See page
CompNet Database
The CompNet Competitiveness Database The Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet)...
See page
IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers
IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers The IWH-CompNet Discussion Paper series presents research...
See page
Research Clusters
Three Research Clusters ...
See page
Energy Crisis: Inflation, Recession, Welfare Loss
Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Torsten Schmidt, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 10,
2022
Abstract
The German economy is being hit hard by the crisis in the gas markets. Skyrocketing gas prices are drastically increasing energy costs accompanied by a massive withdrawal of purchasing power. This is pushing the German economy into a recession. At the same time, the institutes conclude that there will be no gas shortage in the coming winter under normal weather conditions. Nevertheless, the supply situation remains extremely tight. Against this background, economic output is likely to have already fallen slightly in the third quarter. In the winter half-year, a significant decline is expected due to the rising cost of energy, weakening consumer demand and the weakening global economy.
Read article
29.09.2022 • 24/2022
The East German economy expanded strongly in the first half of 2022, but falls into recession in the second half of the year ‒ Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2022 and of Länder data from recent publications of the Statistical Office
The energy crisis is pushing the German economy into recession. This also affects the economy in East Germany. According to the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), East German production will expand at a slightly stronger rate of 1.5% than in Germany as a whole. For the coming year, the decline in East Germany is expected to be less pronounced than in the west at 0.1% (Germany: ‒0.4%). For 2024, the economists forecast a growth of 1.7% (Germany: 1.9%).
Oliver Holtemöller
Read press release