Financial Factors in Macroeconometric Models
Sebastian Giesen
Volkswirtschaft, Ökonomie,
2013
Abstract
The important role of credit has long been identified as a key factor for economic development (see e.g. Wicksell (1898), Keynes (1931), Fisher (1933) and Minsky (1957, 1964)). Even before the financial crisis most researchers and policy makers agreed that financial frictions play an important role for business cycles and that financial turmoils can result in severe economic downturns (see e.g. Mishkin (1978), Bernanke (1981, 1983), Diamond (1984), Calomiris (1993) and Bernanke and Gertler (1995)). However, in practice researchers and policy makers mostly used simplified models for forecasting and simulation purposes. They often neglected the impact of financial frictions and emphasized other non financial market frictions when analyzing business cycle fluctuations (prominent exceptions include Kiyotaki and Moore (1997), Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999) and Christiano, Motto, and Rostagno (2010)). This has been due to the fact that most economic downturns did not seem to be closely related to financial market failures (see Eichenbaum (2011)). The outbreak of the subprime crises ― which caused panic in financial markets and led to the default of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 ― then led to a reconsideration of such macroeconomic frameworks (see Caballero (2010) and Trichet (2011)). To address the economic debate from a new perspective, it is therefore necessary to integrate the relevant frictions which help to explain what we have experienced during recent years.
In this thesis, I analyze different ways to incorporate relevant frictions and financial variables in macroeconometric models. I discuss the potential consequences for standard statistical inference and macroeconomic policy. I cover three different aspects in this work. Each aspect presents an idea in a self-contained unit. The following paragraphs present more detail on the main topics covered.
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Cluster Policies in the Federal States of Bavaria and Thuringia: Discrepancies between Practice and Theory
Gerhard Heimpold
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2011
Abstract
The contribution analyzes cluster policies pursued in the Federal States of Bavaria and Thuringia. The investigation is based on the exploration of government documents. In both countries cluster policy is target at strengthening competitiveness. The documents explored do not reveal an economic justification for cluster policy in the sense of eliminating market failures, e. g. externalities, information asymmetries and coordination failures. Therefore, it is unclear whether the support schemes under consideration really tie in with factors that hamper cluster evolution. Policies in both states support state-wider clusters and networks. The state-wide focus, however, might undervalue advantages of spatial proximity. As another critical point the ex-ante selection of industries or technologies eligible under cluster policy can be regarded. Despite readiness of considering new technologies etc., public administration generally suffers from a lack of information about the future development perspectives of industries and technologies. A way to mitigate the limited capability of public administration in terms of forecasting might be favoring economic support based on competition for the best concepts/projects instead of focusing on certain industries. Several support schemes offered by the Federal government in Germany are already competition-based. In Thuringia cluster policy is strongly motivated by several structural shortcomings, e. g. by the fragmented firm landscape mainly consisting of small units. Therefore, beyond cluster policy, the necessity will remain to abolish directly the structural shortcomings mentioned, especially by providing an economic environment that enhances firm growth.
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Industrial Associations as a Channel of Business-Government Interactions in an Imperfect Institutional Environment: The Russian Case
A. Yakovlev, A. Govorun
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 16,
2011
Abstract
International lessons from emerging economies suggest that business associations may provide an effective channel of communication between the government and the private sector. This function of business associations may become still more important in transition economies, where old mechanisms for coordinating enterprise activities have been destroyed, while the new ones have not been established yet. In this context, Russian experience is a matter of interest, because for a long time, Russia was regarded as a striking example of state failures and market failures. Consequently, the key point of our study was a description of the role and place of business associations in the presentday
Russian economy and their interaction with member companies and bodies of state
administration. Relying on the survey data of 957 manufacturing firms conducted in
2009, we found that business associations are more frequently joined by larger companies, firms located in regional capital cities, and firms active in investment and innovation. By contrast, business associations tend to be less frequently joined by business groups’ subsidiaries and firms that were non-responsive about their respective ownership structures. Our regression analysis has also confirmed that business associations are a component of what Frye (2002) calls an “elite exchange”– although only on regional and local levels. These “exchanges” imply that members of business associations, on the one hand, more actively assist regional and local authorities in social development of their regions, and on the other hand more often receive support from authorities. However, this effect is insignificant in terms of support from the federal government. In general, our results allow us to believe that at present, business associations (especially the
industry-wide and “leading” ones) consolidate the most active, advanced companies and act as collective representatives of their interests. For this reason, business associations can be regarded as interface units between the authorities and businesses and as a possible instrument for promotion of economic development.
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Path Dependence and QWERTY's Lock-in: Toward a Veblenian Interpretation
John B. Hall, Iciar Dominguez Lacasa, Jutta Günther
Journal of Economic Issues,
No. 2,
2011
Abstract
In “Clio and the Economics of QWERTY,“ Paul David challenges an overarching, mainstream assumption that market forces should indeed lead toward efficient and optimal outcomes that include technology selection. David seeks to explain the endurance of technologies that his use of historiography judges inefficient and suboptimal. We challenge David's research, arguing that failure to consider the original institutional economics (OIE) tradition limits his grasp of complex processes to reduced notions of “path dependence“ based upon a “lock-in.“ This inquiry offers an alternative account of QWERTY and technology selection based upon Veblenian thinking, further supported by Paul Dale Bush's emphasis upon the ceremonial.
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Incubation Time, Incubator Age, and Firm Survival after Graduation
Michael Schwartz
International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Management,
2012
Abstract
On the basis of a sample of 149 graduate firms from five German business incubators, this article contributes to incubator/incubation literature by investigating the effects of the age of the incubators and the firms´ incubation time in securing long-term survival of the firms after leaving the incubator facilities. The empirical findings from Cox proportional hazards regression and parametric accelerated failure time models reveal a statistically significant negative impact for both variables incubator age and incubation time on post-graduation firm survival. One important implication that follows from the empirical results for policy makers and managers of those initiatives is that, when incubator managers become increasingly involved in various regional development activities, this may reduce the effectiveness of incubator support. Also, our finding speaks in favour of a strict limitation of incubation times and reinforces arguments of the supporters of maximum tenancy.
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20 years of innovation policy in East Germany – from a pure “survival support” to high-tech subsidy
Jutta Günther, Nicole Nulsch, Katja Wilde
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
20 Jahre Deutsche Einheit - Teil 2 -
2010
Abstract
The article uses the occasion of “20 years German re-unification” in order to provide an overview of the range of innovation policy schemes in East Germany with the intention to identify changing patterns or paradigms in its philosophy and priorities over time. In general, innovation policy schemes aim at increasing research and development (R&D) activities of companies in order to strengthen their competitiveness as market incentives for R&D are usually too low (problem of market failure). However, in East Germany in the early 1990s the situation was different. At the very beginning, the transformation process in East Germany was accompanied by innovation policy schemes that aimed at the pure maintenance of industrial research and the stock of R&D personnel since the potential for innovation was at a risk to be eliminated completely. In the late 1990s the intention of innovation policies changed. Instead of financial support primarily for human resources, innovation policy schemes since then focused on the support of cooperation projects between different research entities (companies and scientific organizations) and, later on, also the setup of networks in order to close the economic differences between East and West Germany.
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EU 2020 – Impulse für die Post-Lissabonstrategie. Internationale Politikanalyse
S. Gran, B. Hacker, A. P. Jakobi, S. Petzold, Toralf Pusch, P Steinberg
,
2009
Abstract
The Lisbon Strategy was not successful in making the EU the most dynamic and knowledge based economy of the world. A reason for this failure was that it proposed a narrow combination of supply-side reforms and competitive economic policy so that it did not appreciate a balanced policy mix. The follow up “EU 2020” strategy should foremost envisage a different concept of growth with a reference to quality and sustainability. Social productivity in Europe can only be attained if economic integration has the same value as ecologic and social aims. This paper was supplied to the EU Commission hearings of the EU 2020 strategy.
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Size and Focus of a Venture Capitalist's Portfolio
Paolo Fulghieri, Merih Sevilir
Review of Financial Studies,
No. 11,
2009
Abstract
We take a portfolio approach to analyze the investment strategy of a venture capitalist (VC) and show that portfolio size and scope affect both the entrepreneurs' and the VC's incentives to exert effort. A small portfolio improves entrepreneurial incentives because it allows the VC to concentrate the limited human capital on a smaller number of startups, adding more value. A large and focused portfolio is beneficial because it allows the VC to reallocate the limited resources and human capital in the case of startup failure and allows the VC to extract greater rents from the entrepreneurs. We show that the VC finds it optimal to limit portfolio size when startups have higher payoff potential - that is, when providing strong entrepreneurial incentives is most valuable. The VC expands portfolio size only when startup fundamentals are more moderate and when he can form a sufficiently focused portfolio. Finally, we show that the VC may find it optimal to engage in portfolio management by divesting some of the startups early since this strategy allows him to extract a greater surplus.
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Investitionszuschüsse nur bei Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen? Schlussfolgerungen aus der Förderung eines Investitionsprojektes über die Gemeinschaftsaufgabe im Land Brandenburg
Mirko Titze
Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik,
2009
Abstract
The Joint Task “For the Improvement of the Regional Economic Structure“ is one of the most important Instruments of the German regional policy. This instrument is applied in regions with strong structural problems and aims to reduce unemployment. The instruments institutional framework demands the creation of additional permanent posts. This paper explores that these requirements can provoke inefficient combinations of production factors. The reasons for that problem can be seen in market failures as well as political disappointments. The government of each federal state has an incentive to demand permanent posts as much as possible because public revenue can equal the government expenditures after a relative short time period due to employment and production effects. The institutional framework of the German financial equalization scheme between the federal states contributes to that problem too - the expenditures for subsidization can be balanced by perequations paid by the other federal states.
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Beyond Incubation: An Analysis of Firm Survival and Exit Dynamics in the Post-graduation Period
Michael Schwartz
Journal of Technology Transfer,
2009
Abstract
With regard to the survival rates of business incubator (BI) firms, the literature mainly presents findings of failure rates only during the incubation period. Little is known about the survival or exit dynamics of firms after leaving the incubator facilities. The study approaches this research question by examining the survival of 352 firms from five German BIs after their graduation. The findings suggest that graduation causes an immediate negative effect on survivability that lasts up to three years after leaving the incubators. Furthermore, heterogeneous patterns of post-graduation exit dynamics between the BIs were observed. It was also found that performance during the incubation period is an indicator of the propensity of business closure after graduation. This study offers valuable insights and implications for all stakeholders of BI-initiatives.
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