Macroeconomic Shocks and Banks' Foreign Assets
Claudia M. Buch, K. Carstensen, A. Schertler
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
No. 1,
2010
Abstract
Recent developments in international financial markets have highlighted the role of banks in the transmission of shocks across borders. We employ dynamic panel methods for a sample of OECD countries to analyze whether banks' foreign assets react to macroeconomic shocks at home and abroad. We find that banks reduce their foreign assets in response to a relative increase in domestic interest rates, and they increase their foreign assets when the growth rate of world energy prices rises. The responses are characterized by a temporal overshooting and a dynamic adjustment process that extends over several quarters.
Read article
Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Staatsfinanzen: Eine Vorausschau der Jahre 2010 bis 2014
Kristina vanDeuverden, Rolf Scheufele
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2010
Abstract
In 2009 the German budget was clearly in the red, and in 2010 prospects are even worse. Deficits are such impressive that consolidation became a top subject in general publicity. To provide a sound basis for this discussion the IWH presents its second midterm projection of German economic development and public finances.
While economy will improve slowly in the medium term and the output gap will be closed in the end of the projection period public finances will deteriorate until 2011. Thereafter the situation will improve but only due to cyclical reasons. In 2014 structural budget balance will have reached 2½% of nominal GDP.
Read article
Book Review on: Ahmed Bahagat, Fostering the use of Financial Risk Management Products in Developing Countries, 2002, Economic Research Papers No. 69, Abidjan: African Development Bank
Tobias Knedlik
African Development Perspectives Yearbook: Private and Public Sectors: Towards a Balance,
2004
Abstract
Read article
Finanzierung kommunaler Aufgaben: Ökonomische Prinzipien, moderne Herausforderungen und institutionelle Gestaltungsmöglichkeiten
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Position Liberal, Bd. 88,
2009
Abstract
The publication is based on the economic principles for an efficient local public revenue system. The main part of the publication is examining the question how different categories of revenues (taxes, user fees, grants-in-aid) and different arrangements of these revenues are able to meet with these principles. In addition, it is asked for the implications of recent developments (demographic change; increasing importance of the competitiveness of cities) for the choice between different categories of revenues. Finally, it is discussed how it could be possible in countries like Germany – where the existing local public revenue system is quite far away from what is regarded as efficient – to come to an institutional change in the direction of a better way of financing the local level.
Read article
Financial constraints and the margins of FDI
Claudia M. Buch
Bundesbank Discussion Paper 29/2009,
2009
Abstract
Recent literature on multinational firms has stressed the importance of low productivity as a barrier to the cross-border expansion of firms. But firms may also need external finance to shoulder the costs of entering foreign markets. We develop a model of multinational firms facing real and financial barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI), and we analyze their impact on the FDI decision (the extensive margin) and foreign affiliate sales (the intensive margin). We provide empirical evidence based on a detailed dataset of German multinationals which contains information on parent-level and affiliate-level financial constraints as well as about the location the foreign affiliates. We find that financial factors constrain firms’ foreign investment decisions, an effect felt in particular by large firms. Financial constraints at the parent level matter for the extensive, but less
so for the intensive margin. For the intensive margin, financial constraints at the affiliate level are relatively more important.
Read article
Russia: A Victim to Transition or to the Financial Crisis?
Marina Grusevaja
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2009
Abstract
The global financial crisis has revealed deficiencies of the Russian economic system which are caused by the path of the transformation from central planning to the market economy, and not only attributable to the downfall of crude oil prices. While the worldwide liquidity crunch impaired the availability of loans to enterprises, the situation in Russia has deteriorated especially by the large exposure of the private sector to short-term foreign liabilities and by the one-sided orientation of the economy relying on the natural resources industry. Until the mid-2008, the foreign debt of the private banks and non-banks had increased strongly and had strengthened the dependence of the Russian economy on the developments on the international financial markets. The Ruble devaluation at the end of January 2009 aggravated the situation. The high short-term foreign debt of the private sector and the dependence on exports of natural resources are typical outcomes of the Russian transformation path. Therefore, on the one hand, the banking sector has not being able to satisfy financing demand of the private sector beyond the natural resources industries, enterprises became forced to borrow short-term money abroad. On the other hand, the economic strategy of the past seventeen years has strengthened the influence of the state on the natural resources sector – with the strong priority to develop it further. Hence, the one-sided economic development negatively affects the adaptability of the real-economic sector to change during the crisis period. In essence, the present political preferences of the government are aimed at providing direct financial assistance and at protectionist measures. In the long run, these actions could lead to stronger intervention of the state in the economy. Due to these recent developments, the crisis is likely to continue in Russia longer than in the other transformation countries.
Read article
Regional Growth and Finance in Europe: Is there a Quality Effect of Bank Efficiency?
Iftekhar Hasan, Michael Koetter, Michael Wedow
Journal of Banking & Finance,
No. 8,
2009
Abstract
In this study, we test whether regional growth in 11 European countries depends on financial development and suggest the use of cost- and profit-efficiency estimates as quality measures of financial institutions. Contrary to the usual quantitative proxies of financial development, the quality of financial institutions is measured in this study as the relative ability of banks to intermediate funds. An improvement in bank efficiency spurs five times more regional growth then an identical increase in credit does. More credit provided by efficient banks exerts an independent growth effect in addition to direct quantity and quality channel effects.
Read article
Keeping the Bubble Alive! The Effects of Urban Renewal and Demolition Subsidies in the East German Housing Market
Dominik Weiß
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 11,
2009
Abstract
German urban renewal programs are favoring the cities in the Eastern part since the re-unification in 1990. This was accompanied additionally by attractive tax incentives, designed as an accelerated declining balance method of depreciation for housing investments during the late 1990s. The accumulated needs for comfortable housing after 40 years of a disastrous housing policy of the GDR era were generally accepted as justification for the subvention policy. But various subsidies and tax incentives caused a construction boom, false allocations, and a price bubble in Eastern Germany. After recognizing that the expansion of housing supply was not in line with the demographic development and that high vacancy rates were jeopardizing housing companies and their financial backers, policy changed in 2001. Up to now, the government provides demolition grants to reduce the vast oversupply. By means of a real option approach, it is ex-plained how different available forms of subsidies and economic incentives for landlords lift real estate values. The option value representing growth expectations and opportunities is calculated as an observable market value less an estimated fundamental value. Empirical results disclose higher option premiums for cities in Eastern Germany and a strong correlation of the option premium with urban renewal spending.
Read article
Municipal Enterprises as Shadow Budgets – How do they Affect the Actual Budgetary Situation of Germany´s Local Governments?
Peter Haug
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2009
Abstract
Outsourcing of municipal tasks from the core budget to municipal enterprises tends to distort the perception of the actual financial position, net assets and results of operations of the German local governments. Excess supply or -demand of/for local public services might be possible consequences of this development. Hence, this article attempts to develop a more comprehensive picture of the municipal budgetary position by a simultaneous analysis of selected indicators. Furthermore, the methodological problems of the calculations are illustrated.
If these shadow budgets are taken into account, the total per capita revenues, -investments and -debts will increase by approximately one third to 50%. However, the share of the municipal employees belonging to the core administration in the total number of municipal employees is 75%. Although only about 22% of the expenditures for certain voluntary municipal tasks have been outsourced, there seems to be an upward trend.
The study also indicates that there are significant differences between Eastern and Western German cities. These include the higher revenues from municipal enterprises, the higher debts per capita and the higher expenditures on culture, sports, leisure services or the promotion of science in Eastern Germany.
The results should be interpreted carefully due to some shortcomings of the official statistics. For example, internal cash flows cannot be totally eliminated. Moreover, indirect municipal majority holdings as well as the municipal savings banks are not included in the results.
All in all, it remains to be seen whether the initiated reforms concerning the introduction of double-entry accounting into the local government budgeting system will help to achieve the ideal goal of a meaningful “consolidated financial statement” for the “city company”.
Read article
Low Skill but High Volatility?
Claudia M. Buch
CESifo Working Paper No. 2665,
2009
Abstract
Globalization may impose a double-burden on low-skilled workers. On the one hand, the relative supply of low-skilled labor increases. This suppresses wages of low-skilled workers and/or increases their unemployment rates. On the other hand, low-skilled workers typically face more limited access to financial markets than high-skilled workers. This limits their ability to smooth shocks to income intertemporally and to share risks across borders. Using cross-country, industry-level data for the years 1970 - 2004, we document how the volatility of hours worked and of wages of workers at different skill levels has changed over time. We develop a stylized theoretical model that is consistent with the empirical evidence, and we test the predictions of the model. Our results show that greater financial globalization and development increases the volatility of employment, and this effect is strongest for low-skilled workers. A higher share of low-skilled employment has a dampening impact.
Read article
