Trade Shocks, Labour Markets and Migration in the First Globalisation
Richard Bräuer, Felix Kersting
Economic Journal,
forthcoming
Abstract
This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture—the grain invasion from the Americas—in Prussia during the first globalisation (1870–913). We show that this shock led to a decline in the employment rate and overall income. However, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation, which we explain by a strong migration response. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine them with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian and United States trade data to isolate exogenous variation.
Read article
The Rise of Populist Parties in Europe
The Rise of Populist Parties in Europe: The Dark Side of Globalisation and Technological Change? ...
See page
MICROPROD
MICROPROD Raising EU Productivity: Lessons from Improved Micro Data The goal...
See page
Homepage
Solidarity with Israel The Alliance of Science Organisations in Germany stands in solidarity with Israel. ...
See page
IWH FDI Micro Database
IWH FDI Micro Database The IWH FDI Micro Database (FDI = Foreign Direct...
See page
CompNet Database
The CompNet Competitiveness Database The Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet)...
See page
Demographic Change
Demographic Change Dossier ...
See page
IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers
IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers The IWH-CompNet Discussion Paper series presents research...
See page
Research Clusters
Three Research Clusters ...
See page