06.09.2018 • 17/2018
The Cyclical upswing in Germany continues, in spite of foreign demand losing momentum
In autumn 2018, the global economy continues to expand quite strongly. Whereas the cyclical upswing in the USA has gained even more strength, the economy in the Euro area has weakened somewhat. To a lesser extent, this also applies to the German economy. “According to this forecast, the growth rate of German real gross domestic product will be 1.8% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019. The East German economy will expand by 1.5% this year and by 1.4% in 2019”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president at IWH.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read press release
14.06.2018 • 14/2018
Current economic outlook: German upswing is slowing down
In summer 2018, the world economy is still rather strong. Dynamics in the euro area, however, have declined markedly, and the cyclical upswing in Germany has almost stalled, due to weaker exports. “Gross domestic product will, according to this forecast, expand by 1.7% in 2018 and by 1.6% in 2019. Growth in East Germany will be about as strong as in Germany as a whole”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president at IWH.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read press release
19.04.2018 • 7/2018
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2018: Germany’s Economic Experts Raise Forecast Slightly
Berlin, 19 April – Germany’s leading economic experts raised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019 slightly in their Spring Joint Economic Forecast released on Thursday in Berlin. They now expect economic growth of 2.2 percent for this year and 2.0 percent for 2019, versus 2.0 percent and 1.8 percent respectively in their autumn forecast. “The German economy is still booming, but the air is getting thinner as unused capacities are shrinking“, notes Timo Wollmershaeuser, ifo Head of Economic Forecasting. Commenting on the new German government’s economic policy, he adds: “It is precisely when the government’s coffers are full that fiscal policy should reflect the implications of its actions for overall economic stability and the sustainability of public finances. The extension of statutory pension benefits outlined in the coalition agreement runs counter to the idea of sustainability.”
Oliver Holtemöller
Read press release
15.03.2018 • 3/2018
Consistently strong economy, but risks are increasing
The global upswing continues in 2018. The German economy is cur-rently in a boom and is increasingly coming up against capacity limits. “According to our forecast, gross domestic product will expand by 2.2% in 2018; the general government surplus will amount to 1.1% in relation to gross domestic product. Economic growth in East Germany is likely to be slightly below the German growth rate”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and IWH vice president.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read press release
07.09.2017 • 32/2017
The German economy: Growing strongly
In the summer of 2017, the upswing in Germany continues. „For this year, we forecast gross domestic product to expand by 1.9%, as it did in 2016, and for 2018 by 2.0%” says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and IWH vice president.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read press release
Real Effects of Bank Capital Regulations: Global Evidence
Yota D. Deli, Iftekhar Hasan
Journal of Banking and Finance,
2017
Abstract
We examine the effect of the full set of bank capital regulations (capital stringency) on loan growth, using bank-level data for a maximum of 125 countries over the period 1998–2011. Contrary to standard theoretical considerations, we find that overall capital stringency only has a weak negative effect on loan growth. In fact, this effect is completely offset if banks hold moderately high levels of capital. Interestingly, the components of capital stringency that have the strongest negative effect on loan growth are those related to the prevention of banks to use as capital borrowed funds and assets other than cash or government securities. In contrast, compliance with Basel guidelines in using Basel- and credit-risk weights has a much less potent effect on loan growth.
Read article