07.03.2024 • 6/2024
Germany stuck in stagnation ‒ private consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels
Weak consumption and investment in Germany are partly due to inflation-induced losses in real income and declines in energy-intensive production. However, concerns about the competitive strength of the German economy are also weighing on the willingness of private households and companies to spend. In its spring forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product to expand by just 0.2% in 2024, while the forecast for 2025 includes growth of 1.5% (eastern Germany: 0.5% and 1.4%). Last December, the IWH forecast had assumed an increase of 0.5% for Germany in 2024 and of 1.2% for 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Deutschland in der Stagnation festgefahren – privater Konsum weiter unter dem Niveau
von vor der Pandemie
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 1,
2024
Abstract
Zu Beginn des Jahres 2024 zeigen Stimmungsindikatoren etwas aufgehellte Aussichten für die internationale Konjunktur. In Europa dürfte die Dynamik allerdings recht schwach bleiben. Deutschland befindet sich in einer lang anhaltenden Stagnation, die sich bis zum Sommer fortsetzen wird. Für die Zeit danach ist mit einem leichten Anziehen der Konjunktur zu rechnen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2024 um lediglich 0,2% expandieren, für 2025 prognostiziert das IWH einen Zuwachs um 1,5%.
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Financial Technologies and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission
Iftekhar Hasan, Boreum Kwak, Xiang Li
European Economic Review,
January
2024
Abstract
This study investigates whether and how financial technologies (FinTech) influence the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. We use an interacted panel vector autoregression model to explore how the effects of monetary policy shocks change with regional-level FinTech adoption. Results indicate that FinTech adoption generally mitigates the transmission of monetary policy to real GDP, consumer prices, bank loans, and housing prices, with the most significant impact observed in the weakened transmission to bank loan growth. The relaxed financial constraints, regulatory arbitrage, and intensified competition are the possible mechanisms underlying the mitigated transmission.
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07.09.2023 • 23/2023
The German economy continues its downturn
High inflation, increased interest rates, weak foreign demand and uncertainty among private households and firms are currently weighing on the German economy. In its autumn forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product (GDP) to decline by 0.5% in 2023 and to increase by 0.9% in 2024.
Oliver Holtemöller
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R&D Tax Credits and the Acquisition of Startups
William McShane, Merih Sevilir
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 15,
2023
Abstract
We propose a novel mechanism through which established firms contribute to the startup ecosystem: the allocation of R&D tax credits to startups via the M&A channel. We show that when established firms become eligible for R&D tax credits, they increase their R&D and M&A activity. In particular, they acquire more venture capital (VC)-backed startups, but not non-VC-backed firms. Moreover, the impact of R&D tax credits on firms’ R&D is increasing with their acquisition of VC-backed startups. The results suggest that established firms respond to R&D tax credits by acquiring startups rather than solely focusing on increasing their R&D intensity in-house. We also highlight evidence that startups do not appear to benefit from R&D tax credits directly, perhaps because they typically lack the taxable income necessary to directly benefit from the tax credits. In this context, established firms can play an intermediary role by acquiring startups and reallocating R&D tax credits, effectively relaxing the financial constraints faced by startups.
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Household Indebtedness, Financial Frictions and the Transmission of Monetary Policy to Consumption: Evidence from China
Michael Funke, Xiang Li, Doudou Zhong
Emerging Markets Review,
June
2023
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of household indebtedness on the transmission of monetary policy to consumption using the Chinese household-level survey data. We employ a panel smooth transition regression model to investigate the non-linear role of indebtedness. We find that housing-related indebtedness weakens the monetary policy transmission, and this effect is non-linear as there is a much larger counteraction of consumption in response to monetary policy shocks when household indebtedness increases from a low level rather than from a high level. Moreover, the weakened monetary policy transmission from indebtedness is stronger in urban households than in rural households. This can be explained by the investment good characteristic of real estate in China.
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