Are Botswana and Mozambique ready for CMA enlargement?
Tobias Knedlik
Botswana Journal of Economics,
No. 3,
2006
Abstract
The paper elaborates on the appropriateness of a potentially enlarged Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa including Botswana and Mozambique. The theory of optimum currency areas including some extensions by accounting for costs of non-integration and considering the external relations of currency areas are presented. Various indicators such as the structure of the economies, interest rates, inflation rates, exchange rates, factor mobility and trading partners are observed empirically. The paper concludes that current changes in the exchange rate policy of Botswana are expected to lead to increasing, though already high, convergence with CMA countries. Botswana is therefore an appropriate candidate for CMA enlargement. Mozambique is converging towards South Africa but still remains on a lower level. Taking into account the costs of non-integration, however, the target of integration should be formulated for the medium term.
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Determinants of employment - the macroeconomic view
Christian Dreger, Heinz P. Galler, Ulrich (eds) Walwai
Schriften des IWH,
No. 22,
2005
Abstract
The weak performance of the German labour market over the past years has led to a significant unemployment problem. Currently, on average 4.5 mio. people are without a job contract, and a large part of them are long-term unemployed. A longer period of unemployment reduces their employability and aggravates the problem of social exclusion.
The factors driving the evolution of employment have been recently discussed on the workshop Determinanten der Beschäftigung – die makroökonomische Sicht organized jointly by the IAB, Nuremberg, and the IWH, Halle. The present volume contains the papers and proceedings to the policy oriented workshop held in November 2004, 15-16th. The main focus of the contributions is twofold. First, macroeconomic conditions to stimulate output and employment are considered. Second, the impacts of the increasing tax wedge between labour costs and the take home pay are emphasized. In particular, the role of the contributions to the social security system is investigated.
In his introductory address, Ulrich Walwei (IAB) links the unemployment experience to the modest path of economic growth in Germany. In addition, the low employment intensity of GDP growth and the temporary standstill of the convergence process of the East German economy have contributed to the weak labour market performance. In his analysis, Gebhard Flaig (ifo Institute, München) stresses the importance of relative factor price developments. A higher rate of wage growth leads to a decrease of the employment intensity of production, and correspondingly to an increase of the threshold of employment. Christian Dreger (IWH) discusses the relevance of labour market institutions like employment protection legislation and the structure of the wage bargaining process on the labour market outcome. Compared to the current setting, policies should try to introduce more flexibility in labour markets to improve the employment record. The impact of interest rate shocks on production is examined by the paper of Boris Hofmann (Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt). According to the empirical evidence, monetary policy cannot explain the modest economic performance in Germany. György Barabas and Roland Döhrn (RWI Essen) have simulated the effects of a world trade shock on output and employment. The relationships have been fairly stable over the past years, even in light of the increasing globalization. Income and employment effects of the German tax reform in 2000 are discussed by Peter Haan and Viktor Steiner (DIW Berlin). On the base of a microsimulation model, household gains are determined. Also, a positive relationship between wages and labour supply can be established. Michael Feil und Gerd Zika (IAB) have examined the employment effects of a reduction of the contribution rates to the social security system. To obtain robust results, the analysis is done under alternative financing scenarios and with different macroeconometric models. The impacts of allowances of social security contributions on the incentives to work are discussed by Wolfgang Meister and Wolfgang Ochel (ifo München). According to their study, willingness to work is expected to increase especially at the lower end of the income distribution. The implied loss of contributions could be financed by higher taxes.
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Monetary Policy and Bank Lending in Japan: An Agency-based Approach
Diemo Dietrich
Incentives and Economic Behaviour,
2005
Abstract
This paper studies the incentive effects on Japanese banks of a low interest rate policy by the Bank of Japan. It utilizes a simplified version of an overlapping principal-agent-style model of corporate finance originally developed in Dietrich (2003). This model is dedicated to study the monetary policy transmission mechanism by combining arguments of the broad credit channel and the bank lending channel taking into account that banks need to be provided with incentives to monitor entrepreneurs. We argue that stipulating banks to possess some amount of own capital generate these incentives. We denote this capital requirement to be market based and show that this requirement depends crucially on interest rates. After revealing some shortcomings of the credit crunch hypothesis, we apply this approach to the Japanese economy. As a result, a policy of very low interest rates may not only be inefficient but counterproductive to reactivate a stumbled economy via the usual credit channel.
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Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Monetary Convergence of Potential EMU Accession Countries
Oliver Holtemöller
International Economics and Economic Policy,
No. 1,
2005
Abstract
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A Monetary Vector Error Correction Model of the Euro Area and Implications for Monetary Policy
Oliver Holtemöller
Empirical Economics,
No. 3,
2004
Abstract
In this paper, a vector error correction model for Euro area money, prices, output, long-term interest rate and short-term interest rate with three identified cointegration relations is specified. It is shown that Euro area money and prices can be considered as variables that are integrated of order two or I(2), that is, they have to be differenced twice to become stationary. Accordingly, the relation between money, prices and other macroeconomic variables is analyzed in an econometric framework which is suited for the analysis of I(2)-variables. Monetary policy implications are derived from the estimated system.
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Nonlinear adjustment in the term structure of German interest rates
Christian Dreger
Applied Economics Quarterly,
2004
Abstract
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IWH Economic Outlook 2004: No longer waiting for the economic upturn
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2004
Abstract
The Economic Outlook 2004 updates the IWH forecast for 2004 and gives a first outlook on 2005. The world recovery is mainly driven by the strong economic impulses from the USA. Whereas the upturn in the US is domestically driven, the impetus in the euro area is coming from external trade. Nonetheless in Germany corporate investment activity still is slow. Although the tax reductions in 2004 will support private consumption, its overall economic impulse will be weak. German GDP in 2004 will increase 1.6% and 1.8% in 2005. At the labour market no clear improvement can be expected till the second half of 2004; on a yearly average employment will decrease by 100 000 persons in 2004. Albeit the partly broad forward third instalment of the tax reform, fiscal policy will have a restrictive aim. Monetary policy on the other hand will continue to be highly expansive, but as the output gap shrinks the ECB can be expected to increase interest rates moderately.
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A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy
Christian Dreger
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 181,
2003
Abstract
In this paper a structural macroeconometric model for the Eurozone is presented. In opposite to the multi country modelling approach, the model relies on aggregate data on the supra-national level. Due to nonstationarity, all equations are estimated in an error correction form. The cointegrating relations are derived jointly with the short-run dynamics, avoiding the finite sample bias of the two step Engle Granger procedure. The validity of the aggregated approach is confirmed by out-of-sample forecasts and two simulation exercises. In particular the implications of a lower economic recovery in the US and a shock in the nominal Euro area interest rate are discussed.
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On the stability of the banking systems in the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary
Werner Gnoth
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2003
Abstract
The EU countries are interested in stable banking systems of candidate countries, because any kind of instability of the financial sector could have serious consequences to the financial and exchange rate system of the whole Community. In the article the state of stability of the banking systems is analyzed, based on several important indicators. At present the banking systems of candidate countries still look fairly stable: weak competition among the banks, a high inflation rate and a low intermediation rate in terms of total assets / GDP have enabled banks still to reach a sufficient net interest yield. So they have been able to stand a relatively high share of non- performing loans and also a relatively high amount of foreign exchange indebtedness. In order to ensure a problem-free integration of the banking systems of the candidate countries in the EU they must still meet several conditions. They need to widen and refine the supply of services and to lower the share of non-performing loans, mainly in the Czech Republic and Poland. The foreign exchange indebtedness of the banking and enterprises domains in Poland and Hungary needs to be restricted. Successful integration in EU competition requires in general increase in the banks own capital.
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Germany 2004: Only a transitory economic stimulus from moving tax cuts forward
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2003
Abstract
In summer 2003 the German economy once again did not overcome the stagnation, which by now lasted three years. Only by the end of this year the German economy will begin to receive stronger support from a then further improved world economy. In the past months both US and European monetary policy have provided sufficient liquidity by lowering interest rates. In the USA, additional support is provided by fiscal policy; tax reductions and rebates increase domestic demand. Overall, Gross Domestic Product in the US will increase by 2.1% this year; in the euro area GDP will merely expand by a modest 0.8%. For Germany one of its key sectors will not be able to lift the economy as usual and GDP, when compared to last year, will only stagnate. Provided by the brought forward tax reform 2000 the coming year will begin with a stimulus to the German economy. The tax reductions, though, will have limited effect on aggregate production, as the increased consumption will not be able to stimulate investment. Accounting for calendar effects GDP in Germany will increase by at least 1% in 2004 compared with this year, but due to several additional working days in 2004, the unadjusted rate of expansion will be 1.7%. No substantial improvements are expected for the job market.
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