Verschlechterung der Beschäftigungschancen durch Teilnahme an Arbeitsbeschaffungs- und Strukturanpassungsmaßnahmen - Oder gibt es Ausnahmen?
Eva Reinowski, Birgit Schultz, Jürgen Wiemers
Statistik in Sachsen,
2004
Abstract
In diesem Beitrag wird eine differenzierte Analyse der Maßnahmeeffekte bei Teilnahme an einer Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahme (ABM) oder einer Strukturanpassungsmaßnahme (SAM) auf die Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer der Teilnehmer vorgestellt. Die Effekte werden für die gesamte Teilnehmergruppe und Untergruppen, die anhand ausgewählter persönlicher Merkmale gebildet worden sind, untersucht. Wenngleich für die einzelnen Gruppen graduell unterschiedliche Ergebnisse festzustellen sind, kann für keine ein positiver Maßnahmeneffekt ermittelt werden.
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East Germany´s economic situation and outlook: in the wake of economic recovery
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2004
Abstract
Die weltweite Erholung der Konjunktur wird in diesem Jahr trotz der Belastungen durch den Preisanstieg bei Mineralöl und anderen Energieträgern verstärkt auch auf die Wirtschaft in den neuen Bundesländern ausstrahlen. Wegen des geringen Anteils der Herstellung international handelbarer Güter und der vorrangigen Ausrichtung auf den Inlandsmarkt in Deutschland nimmt die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft zunächst aber relativ wenig von den Impulsen aus dem Ausland auf. Erst über die Produktionsverflechtungen mit dem früheren Bundesgebiet wird sich auch im Ostteil die gesamtwirtschaftliche Expansion im späteren Verlauf dieses Jahres verstärken. Im kommenden Jahr empfängt die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft zusätzliche Impulse vom Übergreifen der konjunkturellen Erholung auf die Inlandsnachfrage in Deutschland. Bereits 2003 wurde ein Drittel des ostdeutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in den alten Bundesländern und im Ausland realisiert, und allein dies hatte für einen Produktionsanstieg gesorgt, während die Nachfrage in Ostdeutschland rückläufig war.
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East German labor market: No improvements in sight
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2004
Abstract
The article describes the current situation at the East German labour market. It points out, that the East German labour market has been increasingly in disequilibrium. In 2004 the employment reduction will continue.
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IWH Economic Outlook 2004: No longer waiting for the economic upturn
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2004
Abstract
The Economic Outlook 2004 updates the IWH forecast for 2004 and gives a first outlook on 2005. The world recovery is mainly driven by the strong economic impulses from the USA. Whereas the upturn in the US is domestically driven, the impetus in the euro area is coming from external trade. Nonetheless in Germany corporate investment activity still is slow. Although the tax reductions in 2004 will support private consumption, its overall economic impulse will be weak. German GDP in 2004 will increase 1.6% and 1.8% in 2005. At the labour market no clear improvement can be expected till the second half of 2004; on a yearly average employment will decrease by 100 000 persons in 2004. Albeit the partly broad forward third instalment of the tax reform, fiscal policy will have a restrictive aim. Monetary policy on the other hand will continue to be highly expansive, but as the output gap shrinks the ECB can be expected to increase interest rates moderately.
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Unit labor costs and competitiveness - a micro econometric analysis for East Germany
Harald Lehmann
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 180,
2003
Abstract
The paper stresses the value of unit labour costs as an indicator of competitiveness. It is assumed that there are different advantages by using microeconomic data which additionally allow the use of panelregressive methods. The findings for East German enterprises in the manufacturing industry (1998 to 2000) are that unit labour cost are useful for explaining the profit rate. This indicates that East German firms are facing in-price competition which depends clearly of labour costs. But unit labour costs do not explain the success on supraregional markets which are marked by non-in-price competition.
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Current economic situation: A silver lining on the horizon
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2003
Abstract
The Federal Statistical Office has recently released the figures for second quarter GDP and its components. At the same time, the data for the past four years has been revised. This made it necessary to update the existing IWH-forecasts for 2003 and 2004. Stimulated by an improving world economy GDP will not decline this year but merely stagnate. In 2004 the external stimulus will further increase and accounting for the additional working days economic activity will rise by 1.8%. The turnaround at the labour market will not take place before the second half of 2004. Fiscal policy is currently aiming to balance the budget, but so far the government tried to achieve this goal by increasing levies and taxes. In order to maintain the growth potential, a sustainable consolidation, though, should work by means of cutting expenditure. Overall the deficit will be 4.1% and 3.9% of nominal GDP in this and next year, respectively.
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East German labor market: Still no improvements in sight
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2003
Abstract
The article describes the current situation at the East German labour market. It points out, that the East German labour market has been increasingly in disequilibrium. In 2004 the employment reduction will continue.
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Unemployment benefit II - Comments on the merging of unemployment benefits and public assistance
Herbert Buscher
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2003
Abstract
The paper discusses the consequences of the planned reform of the unemployment security system, namely the new unemployment benefits II which consists of the former “Arbeitslosenhilfe“ and of transfers from the social welfare system. The paper calculates the expected reductions in public spending and relates a part of this amout to a possible reduction in labour unit costs and its consequences for employment.
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Evaluation of labor market policy measures: Traps and possible solutions
Eva Reinowski, Birgit Schultz, Jürgen Wiemers
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2003
Abstract
The paper intends to give a survey on nonparametric methods to solve the sample selection problem. We give the main idea and discuss advantages and disadvantages of the procedures that are used for the evaluation of Active Labour Market Policy. The two step Nearest-Neighbor-Matching is presented in detail, because it became the standard technique in the recent years. The IWH refines this method to improve the quality of evaluation results.
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Employment chances deteriorate upon participation in job creating and structural adjustment schemes - Or are there exceptions?
Eva Reinowski, Birgit Schultz, Jürgen Wiemers
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2003
Abstract
In this paper we present the evaluation of the participation effect of Job Creation Schemes (ABM) and Structural Adjustment Schemes(SAM) on unemployment probability. The focus is on special groups which differ in individual characteristics. We found a strong negative treatment effect with gradual differences between separate groups.
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