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IWH-Flash-Indikator IV. Quartal 2018 und I. Quartal 2019
Die deutsche Wirtschaft hat im dritten Quartal 2018 einen deutlichen Dämpfer erhalten. Sie schrumpfte um 0,2%, nachdem sie in den vergangenen drei Jahren kontinuierlich expandiert hatte. Der aktuelle IWH-Flash-Indikator deutet darauf hin, dass die wirtschaftliche Aktivität im vierten Quartal 2018 und ersten Quartal 2019 mit jeweils 0,2% langsam wieder Fahrt aufnehmen wird.
27.09.2018 • 19/2018
Upswing in East Germany has slowed, but continues – implications of the joint forecast of the German economic research institutes in autumn 2018 and of official data for the Eastern German economy in the first half of 2018
The German institutes forecast a slowdown in the cyclical upswing in Germany. Foreign demand, in particular from other euro area countries, has eased, and capacity constraints make it increasingly difficult for companies to expand production. Both arguments apply to East Germany as well: high vacancy rates indicate that labour may be even scarcer than in the West despite higher unemployment. Moreover, a particularly high proportion of East German exports go to other European countries. Important drivers of growth in the East, however, are still intact: unlike the manufacturing sector, services have been rising a bit faster in recent years in East Germany than in the West. Providers of services benefit from significantly rising disposable incomes of private households, as employment is currently expanding healthily and at only a slightly slower pace than in West Germany, despite poorer demographic conditions. Retirement pensions in East Germany have also been increased considerably.
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27.09.2018 • 18/2018
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2018: Upturn Loses Momentum
Berlin, 27 September – Germany’s leading economics research institutes have downwardly revised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019. They now expect economic output to increase by 1.7 percent in 2018, and not 2.2 percent as forecast in spring. They also scaled back their 2019 forecast slightly from 2.0 to 1.9 percent. These are the results of the Joint Economic Forecast for autumn 2018 that will be presented in Berlin on Thursday.
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