Human Capital Mobility and Convergence – A Spatial Dynamic Panel Model of the German Regions
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Abstract
Since the fall of the iron curtain in 1989, the migration deficit of the Eastern part of Germany has accumulated to 1.8 million people, which is over ten percent of its initial population. Depending on their human capital endowment, these migrants might either – in the case of low-skilled migration – accelerate or – in high-skilled case – impede convergence. Due to the availability of detailed data on regional human capital, migration and productivity growth, we are able to test how geographic mobility affects convergence via the human capital selectivity of migration. With regard to the endogeneity of the migration flows and human capital, we apply a dynamic panel data model within the framework of β-convergence and account for spatial dependence. The regressions indicate a positive, robust, but modest effect of a migration surplus on regional productivity growth. After controlling for human capital, the effect of migration decreases; this decrease indicates that skill selectivity is one way that migration impacts growth.
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Sweden’s Policy for Guaranteeing Service Provision Based on the Example of Jämtland
Franziska Jungermann
Europa Regional,
No. -1,
2012
Abstract
The northern Swedish Jämtland county is among the most sparsely populated regions in Europe. Due to its rural/peripheral character and a dispersive settlement structure, it is particularly called upon to maintain adequate service provision. An empirical study analysed the provisions of services of general interest for children and elderly persons and adult education in the Country of Jämtland to discover how the various types of services of general interest are organised in this area, what effect the demographic change has on the provision of these services and whether any adjustment processes can be observed. It became apparent that the local players have a clear awareness of the problems related to the demographic change, although to date one cannot speak of explicit adjustment processes.
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Human Capital Mobility and Convergence. A Spatial Dynamic Panel Model of the German Regions
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Abstract
Since the fall of the iron curtain in 1989, the migration deficit of the Eastern part of Germany has accumulated to 1.8 million people, which is over 10 percent of its ini-tial population. Depending on their human capital endowment, these migrants might either – in the case of low-skilled migration – accelerate or – in high-skilled case– impede convergence. Due to the availability of detailed data on regional human capital, migration and productivity growth, we are able to test how geographic mobil-ity affects convergence via the human capital selectivity of migration. With regard to the endogeneity of the migration flows and human capital, we apply a dynamic panel data model within the framework of β-convergence and account for spatial depend-ence. The regressions indicate a positive, robust, but modest effect of a migration surplus on regional productivity growth. After controlling for human capital, the effect of migration decreases; this decrease indicates that skill selectivity is one way that migration impacts growth.
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Determinants of Evolutionary Change Processes in Innovation Networks – Empirical Evidence from the German Laser Industry
Muhamed Kudic, Andreas Pyka, Jutta Günther
Abstract
We seek to understand the relationship between network change determinants, network change processes at the micro level and structural consequences at the overall network level. Our conceptual framework considers three groups of determinants – organizational, relational and contextual. Selected factors within these groups are assumed to cause network change processes at the micro level – tie formations and tie terminations – and to shape the structural network configuration at the overall network level. We apply a unique longitudinal event history dataset based on the full population of 233 German laser source manufacturers and 570 publicly-funded cooperation projects to answer the following research question: What kind of exogenous or endogenous determinants affect a firm’s propensity and timing to cooperate and enter the network? Estimation results from a non-parametric event history model indicate that young micro firms enter the network later than small-sized and large firms. An in-depth analysis of the size effects for medium-sized firms provides some unexpected yet quite interesting findings. The choice of cooperation type makes no significant difference for the firms’ timing to enter the network. Finally, the analysis of contextual determinants shows that cluster membership can, but do not necessarily, affect a firm’s timing to cooperate.
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Ostdeutsche Transformationsgesellschaft: Zum Fortbestand von Strukturen und Verhaltensweisen
Alexander Kubis, Cornelia Lang, Lutz Schneider, Gerhard Heimpold
A. Lorenz (Hrsg.), Ostdeutschland und die Sozialwissenschaften. Bilanz und Perspektiven 20 Jahre nach der Wiedervereinigung,
2011
Abstract
Subject of this contribution is, whether socio-economic structures which have evolved since German Unification in East Germany are still different from those in West Germany or whether they are similar. The findings reveal similarities in terms of fertility behavior and mortality, and educational attainment measured by the proportion of high-school graduates reveals only minor differences. Contrary, the proportion of persons who have a migration background is considerably lower than in West Germany whereas the proportion of mothers full-time employed exceeds the West German average. Net-migration losses in East Germany linked with the echo-effects of postponed births will exert a strong impact on the future potential of population in working age. This in mind, maintaining human capital will be a great future challenge.
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Size is not everything – The efficiency of municipal service provision in Saxony-Anhalt
Peter Haug, Annette Illy
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2011
Abstract
The proponents of municipal area reforms – e.g. the recently completed reform in Saxony-Anhalt – expect that municipal amalgamations or centralized organizational forms save costs or increase the efficiency of local public service provision. This article examines the potential efficiency deficits of Saxony-Anhalt´s fragmented municipal structures on the eve of the crucial phase of the municipal reform. The results of a two-step DEA bootstrap procedure show that decentralized municipalities (“Verwaltungsgemeinschaften”) do not have to be significantly less efficient than centralized municipalities (“Einheitsgemeinden”). Furthermore, the results of the scale efficiency analysis suggest that the majority of Saxony-Anhalt´s communities already had an approximately efficient “firm size” – if the aggregated level of the municipal associations is examined. The relationship between scale efficiency and population is U-shaped. On the one hand, the results do not support the preservation of micro-municipalities or the formation of municipal associations with more than ten members. On the other hand, the results provide also no evidence for the necessity to reduce the number of towns and municipalities in Saxony-Anhalt from 1118 in 2004 to currently 219 – even if the looming population decline is taken into account.
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Upturn in Saxony-Anhalt in between structural Barriers
Udo Ludwig, Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2011
Abstract
The gross domestic product of Saxony-Anhalt will increase by 2.6% in 2011. Due to structural reasons the growth is lower than in Germany. In Saxony-Anhalt the key growth driver, the engineering industry, are poorly represented. The previously strong food industry suffers under the pressure of rising commodity prices. The growth gap is explained also from a slowing dynamics in the industry later this year, what is already indicated in the intermediate goods sector, which is the most important part in Saxony-Anhalt´s industry. In addition, the dynamics of household demand for consumer goods and housing is weaker because of the sharp decline in population. Furthermore, the government sector slows in connection with the consolidation of public budgets. The growth gap compared to the average of the New Federal States in total also stems from the fact that the recovery in Saxony-Anhalt had progressed rapidly in the previous year.
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East German economy in 2011: Despite overall Economic Growth no Progress in Catching Up
Udo Ludwig, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Franziska Exß, Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2011
Abstract
All in all, the IWH expects that GDP of East Germany will increase by 2.8% this year. With this forecast, the growth gap with the West will indeed reduce significantly, but the growth rate remains once again behind the West. The reason is not only that the East German federal states have to consolidate their budgets. The weaker increase in aggregate output is also due to export and innovation weakness, the lack of large enterprises, the aging and declining population.
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School Closures and Population Decline in Saxony-Anhalt
Walter Hyll, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2011
Abstract
In rural areas school closures are often linked to a decline in population. Do school closures stimulate enhanced emigration? This paper analyses whether family migration is affected by the existence of primary schools. We conduct an empirical study for the East German province Saxony-Anhalt for the period 1991 to 2008. We find that primary schools significantly affect migration behaviour. After school closure municipalities experience a decrease in in-migration. Unexpectedly, controlling for cohort size, unobserved heterogeneity as well as for neighbourhood effects yields higher out-migration prior to school closure. Because the in-migration and the out-migration are of the same magnitude, in sum school closures have no observable impact on net-migration.
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IWH FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2010 in East Germany
Andrea Gauselmann, Gabriele Hardt, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek
One-off Publications,
2010
Abstract
The paper is a methodological report on the IWH-FDI-Micro Database of the year 2010. It contains a motivation of the research questions and describes the availability of existing data sources on multinational affiliates in transition economies. In its core it describes the population, survey sampling and implementation, in depth information on the survey representativeness, and questionnaire design. The 2010 survey covers multinationals affiliates in manufacturing and selected services of East Germany.
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