European Firm Concentration and Aggregate Productivity
Tommaso Bighelli, Filippo di Mauro, Marc Melitz, Matthias Mertens
Journal of the European Economic Association,
forthcoming
Abstract
This article derives a European Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index from 15 micro-aggregated country datasets. In the last decade, European concentration rose due to a reallocation of economic activity towards large and concentrated industries. Over the same period, productivity gains from an increasing allocative efficiency of the European market accounted for 50% of European productivity growth while markups stayed constant. Using country-industry variation, we show that changes in concentration are positively associated with changes in productivity and allocative efficiency. This holds across most sectors and countries and supports the notion that rising concentration in Europe reflects a more efficient market environment rather than weak competition and rising market power.
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The Urban Wage Premium in Imperfect Labour Markets
Boris Hirsch, Elke J. Jahn, Alan Manning, Michael Oberfichtner
The Journal of Human Resources,
forthcoming
Abstract
Using administrative data for West Germany, this paper investigates whether part of the urban wage premium stems from greater competition in denser labor markets. We show that employers possess less wage-setting power in denser markets. We further document that an important part of the observed urban wage premia can be explained by greater competition in denser labor markets.
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Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions
Christiane Baumeister, Dimitris Korobilis, Thomas K. Lee
Review of Economics and Statistics,
forthcoming
Abstract
We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market funda-mentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.
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The Cleansing Effect of Banking Crises
Reint E. Gropp, Steven Ongena, Jörg Rocholl, Vahid Saadi
Economic Inquiry,
No. 3,
2022
Abstract
We assess the cleansing effects of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. U.S. regions with higher levels of supervisory forbearance on distressed banks see less restructuring in the real sector: fewer establishments, firms, and jobs are lost when more distressed banks remain in business. In these regions, the banking sector has been less healthy for several years after the crisis. Regions with less forbearance experience higher productivity growth after the crisis with more firm entries, job creation, and employment, wages, patents, and output growth. Forbearance is greater for state-chartered banks and in regions with weaker banking competition and more independent banks.
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Konjunktur aktuell: Krieg treibt Energiepreise – Hohe Inflation belastet Konjunktur
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 2,
2022
Abstract
Die Weltwirtschaft ist auch im Sommerhalbjahr verschiedenen schweren Belastungen ausgesetzt, die die Preise stark steigen lassen. Produktionsstilllegungen im Zuge der chinesischen Null-Covid-Strategie und der Angriff gegen die Ukraine heizen die Inflation weltweit an. Auch in Deutschland wird die konjunkturelle Entwicklung durch die mit dem Krieg verbundenen Preissteigerungen sowie unterbrochene Lieferketten schwer belastet. Die konjunkturellen Aussichten für den Sommer sind trüb. Das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird im Jahr 2022 um 1,5% zunehmen. In Ostdeutschland liegt der Zuwachs bei 1%.
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01.06.2022 • 12/2022
IWH welcomes top international researcher as head of new department
A powerful boost for the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH): Merih Sevilir, a world-renowned researcher on the interplay of financial and labour markets, is heading the Institute’s newest department as of today. Her expertise strengthens the unique selling points of the institute and can be expected to generate significant opportunities for policy insights.
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Capital Requirements, Market Structure, and Heterogeneous Banks
Carola Müller
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 15,
2022
Abstract
Bank regulators interfere with the efficient allocation of resources for the sake of financial stability. Based on this trade-off, I compare how different capital requirements affect default probabilities and the allocation of market shares across heterogeneous banks. In the model, banks‘ productivity determines their optimal strategy in oligopolistic markets. Higher productivity gives banks higher profit margins that lower their default risk. Hence, capital requirements indirectly aiming at high-productivity banks are less effective. They also bear a distortionary cost: Because incumbents increase interest rates, new entrants with low productivity are attracted and thus average productivity in the banking market decreases.
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The Economics of Firm Productivity
Carlo Altomonte, Filippo di Mauro
Cambridge University Press,
April
2022
Abstract
Productivity varies widely between industries and countries, but even more so across individual firms within the same sectors. The challenge for governments is to strike the right balance between policies designed to increase overall productivity and policies designed to promote the reallocation of resources towards firms that could use them more effectively. The aim of this book is to provide the empirical evidence necessary in order to strike this policy balance. The authors do so by using a micro-aggregated dataset for 20 EU economies produced by CompNet, the Competitiveness Research Network, established some 10 years ago among major European institutions and a number of EU productivity boards, National Central Banks, National Statistical institutes, as well as academic Institutions. They call for pan-EU initiatives involving statistical offices and scholars to achieve a truly complete EU market for firm-level information on which to build solidly founded economic policies.
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13.04.2022 • 8/2022
From Pandemic to Energy Crisis: Economy and Politics under Permanent Stress
The German economy is steering through difficult waters and faces the highest inflation rates in decades. In their spring report, the leading German economic research institutes revise their outlook for this year significantly downward. The recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is slowing down as a result of the war in Ukraine, but remains on track. The institutes expect GDP to increase by 2.7% and 3.1% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. In the event of an immediate interruption to Russian gas supplies, a total of 220 billion euros in German economic output would be at risk in both years.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Handelsschocks, Arbeitsmärkte und Wohlstand während der ersten Globalisierung
Richard Bräuer, Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, Felix Kersting
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2022
Abstract
Dieser Beitrag untersucht Deutschland in der ersten Globalisierung in den Jahrzehnten vor dem Ersten Weltkrieg. Damals erlebte das Deutsche Reich eine massive Zunahme von Getreideimporten aus Amerika. Wir vergleichen Landkreise, die auf die importierten Getreidesorten spezialisiert waren, mit Kreisen, die andere landwirtschaftliche Güter hergestellt haben. Unsere Resultate zeigen, dass viele Arbeitskräfte die Kreise verlassen, in denen vom Handelsschock betroffene Produkte hergestellt wurden. Allerdings bleiben die in modernen Volkswirtschaften beobachteten negativen Effekte auf Einkommen pro Kopf und Sterblichkeit aus, auch eine politische Radikalisierung findet nicht statt. Unsere Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die Migrationsbewegungen negative wirtschaftliche und in der Folge auch politische Auswirkungen abfedern. Damals verließen etwa viermal so viele Einwohner ihren Landkreis nach einem Handelsschock wie in vergleichbaren Situationen in den heutigen USA.
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