Business Cycle Forecast 2009: World Financial Crisis Triggers Deep Recession in Germany
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
At the beginning of 2009, the major industrialized economies are in recession. The financial turmoil has developed into a crisis of confidence to and solvency of the financial sector, raising financing costs and lowering the value of assets for firms and households. Monetary and fiscal policies have reacted strongly, but they will not succeed in ending the recession until the financial sectors in the US and in Western Europe have stabilized. This forecast is made under the assumption that stabilization will start in the second half of 2009 because the continued protection of important financial institutions by governments will restore confidence – albeit at a low level – and because at this time, the fall of US-house prices will start to fade off.
The German economy is hit particularly hard, because the financial crisis depresses worldwide investment demand and the sectors producing investment goods are at the heart of the German economy. The recession will not end before the second half of 2009, and capacity utilization will decrease throughout the year. We expect a tentative revival to begin in a recovery of exports. While private investment will shrink markedly, consumption of private households and the government as well as public investment will dampen the downturn. GDP will shrink by 1.9% in Germany and in East Germany by 1.5% because this region is less dependent on exports.
Economic policy has to help restoring confidence, and this can only be achieved if it behaves in a consistent and predictable way.
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Patents and technology transfer from universities - a literature review
Sidonia vonLedebur
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2006
Abstract
Knowledge and technologies produced at universities have to be transferred to industry for being used. In Germany the professor's privilege (of self-commercializing an invention) was abolished in 2002 in order to enhance academic patents. Additionally, regional licensing offices (“Patentverwertungsagenturen“) were established for finding companies that license academic patents. But this channel of technology represents only one of several possibilities. The article presents a survey of papers in the field of technology transfer and gives policy recommendations deduced from them. The two main points are: patent licensing offices in Germany are unnecessary narrowly focused institutions. They need to be expanded into broad service institutions for all kinds of technology transfer. And it is unrealistic to earn money for the universities with them - even though some will do - and the state has to finance them permanently, if technology transfer is a policy aim.
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Regional structural policy in an enlarged EU: A reform proposal
Hubert Gabrisch, Joachim Ragnitz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2001
Abstract
Recently, the EC-Commission has presented its ideas for future cohesion policies after the enlargement of the EU by Eastern European states. By applying the actual rules in an enlarged EU, financial aid would be concentrated in the East European countries. In this article it is argued that the criteria for success to the structural funds should not be altered, but that there should be a phasing out of aid for the regions in Western Europe. Additionally, funding under the cohesion fund and the objective 2- and objective-3-shemes should be terminated to get enough financial means to finance objective-1-programmes.
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EKO-Stahl GmbH: Der lange Weg zur Erneuerung eines Unternehmens und einer Region
Manfred Wilhelm
Herausforderung Ostdeutschland – Fünf Jahre Währungs-, Wirtschafts- und Sozialunion,
1995
Abstract
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