Four Research Clusters ...
Financial Systems: The Anatomy of the Market Economy How the financial system is...
Macro Data Download
Macro Data Download On this page, you will find long time series of macroeconomic...
Transformation tables for administrative borders in Germany
Transformation tables for administrative borders in Germany The state has the ability...
Nowcasting East German GDP Growth: a MIDAS Approach
Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account. Overall, we find that mixed-data sampling model forecasts for East German GDP in combination with model averaging outperform regional forecast models that only rely on aggregate national information.