The ADR Shadow Exchange Rate as an Early Warning Indicator for Currency Crises
Stefan Eichler, Alexander Karmann, Dominik Maltritz
Journal of Banking and Finance,
No. 11,
2009
Abstract
We develop an indicator for currency crisis risk using price spreads between American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their underlyings. This risk measure represents the mean exchange rate ADR investors expect after a potential currency crisis or realignment. It makes crisis prediction possible on a daily basis as depreciation expectations are reflected in ADR market prices. Using daily data, we analyze the impact of several risk drivers related to standard currency crisis theories and find that ADR investors perceive higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, trading partners’ currencies depreciate, sovereign yield spreads increase, or interest rate spreads widen.
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A Dynamic Approach to Interest Rate Convergence in Selected Euro-candidate Countries
Hubert Gabrisch, Lucjan T. Orlowski
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 10,
2009
Abstract
We advocate a dynamic approach to monetary convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, we empirically test volatility dynamics of the ten-year sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the eurozone yields during the January 2, 2001 untill January 22, 2009 sample period. Our results show a varied degree of bond yield co-movements, the most pronounced for the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland, and weaker for Hungary and Slovakia. However, since the EU accession, we find some divergence of relative bond yields. We argue that a ‘static’ specification of the Maastricht criterion for long-term bond yields is not fully conducive for advancing stability of financial systems in the euro-candidate countries.
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Interest Rate Convergence in Euro Candidate Countries: A Dynamic Analysis
Hubert Gabrisch, Lucjan T. Orlowski
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2009
Abstract
The study advocates a dynamic approach to monetary convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, the study tests empirically volatility dynamics of the ten-year sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the euro zone yields during the January 2, 2001 to January 22, 2009 sample period. Results show a varied degree of bond yield co-movements, the most pronounced for the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland, and weaker for Hungary and Slovakia. However, since the EU accession, the study finds some divergence of relative bond yields. One can argue that a ‘static’ specification of the Maastricht criterion for long-term bond yields is not fully conducive for advancing stability of financial systems in the euro-candidate countries.
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