Firm Wage Premia, Industrial Relations, and Rent Sharing in Germany
Boris Hirsch, Steffen Müller
ILR Review,
forthcoming
Abstract
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IWH-Tarif-Check: Kräftige Reale Netto-Tariflohnzuwächse für Beschäftigte in der Chemischen Industrie: Neue Gehaltsbestandteile in der Chemischen Industrie erhöhen reale Netto-Tariflohnzuwächse deutlich
Oliver Holtemöller, Birgit Schultz
One-off Publications,
No. 2,
2019
Abstract
Ende November 2019 wurde ein neuer Tarifvertrag für die Chemische Industrie abgeschlossen. Dementsprechend steigen die tabellenwirksamen Tariflöhne zum Juli 2020 um 1,5% und ein Jahr später nochmals um 1,3%. Hinzu kommen Einmalzahlungen in Höhe von 4,0% – 6,0% eines Monatsentgelts für die Zeit bis zur ersten Tariferhöhung im Juli 2020. Zusätzlich wurde erstmalig ein tarifliches Zukunftskonto im Gegenwert von zwei Tagen im Jahr 2020, drei Tagen im Jahr 2021 und danach jeweils fünf Tagen je Jahr vereinbart, die als Freizeit genommen, angespart oder ausgezahlt werden können. Dies entspricht einem Plus von 1,8 %. Hinzu kommt eine tarifliche Pflegezusatzversicherung und die Anhebung des Weihnachtsgeldes. Durch diese Zusatzvereinbarungen werden die eher niedrigen tabellenwirksamen Tariflohnsteigerungen erheblich aufgewertet. Insgesamt umfasst der Tariflohnabschluss ein Plus von mehr als 6% für eine Laufzeit von bis zu 29 Monaten.
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12.12.2019 • 24/2019
Global economy slowly gains momentum – but Germany still stuck in a downturn
In 2020, the global economy is likely to benefit from the recent thaw in trade disputes. Germany’s manufacturing sector, however, will recover only slowly. “In 2020, the German economy will probably grow at a rate of 1.1%, and adjusted for the unusually high number of working days the growth rate will only be 0.7%”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president at Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). With an estimated growth rate of 1.3%, production in East Germany will outpace total German production growth.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Total Factor Productivity and the Terms of Trade
Jan Teresinski
IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers,
No. 6,
2019
Abstract
In this paper we analyse how the terms of trade (TOT) – the ratio of export prices to import prices – affect total factor productivity (TFP). We provide empirical macroeconomic evidence for the European Union countries based on the times series SVAR analysis and microeconomic evidence based on industry level data from the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet) database which shows that the terms of trade improvements are associated with a slowdown in the total factor productivity growth. Next, we build a theoretical model which combines open economy framework with the endogenous growth theory. In the model the terms of trade improvements increase demand for labour employed in exportable goods production at the expense of technology production (research and development – R&D) which leads to a shift of resources from knowledge development towards physical exportable goods. This reallocation has a negative impact on the TFP growth. Under a plausible calibration the model is able to replicate the observed empirical pattern.
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Short-term Economic Effects of a "Brexit" on the German Economy
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Andrej Drygalla, Stefan Gebauer, Oliver Holtemöller, Martina Kämpfe, Axel Lindner, Claus Michelsen, Malte Rieth, Thore Schlaak
IWH Online,
No. 3,
2019
Abstract
Many questions about Brexit remain open. It is still possible that the UK and the European Union will not be able to agree on a withdrawal agreement. In this case a so-called hard Brexit (No-Deal Brexit) would happen. We have examined the short-term effects of a hard Brexit for the German economy. In a first step, effects via the trading channel are estimated based on an input-output analysis of international and sectoral links. The result is a loss of 0.3% relative to gross domestic product. This magnitude also results from the international Halle Economic Projection Model, which takes into account macroeconomic repercussions. A hard Brexit would, in addition to the trade barriers, mean significant uncertainty for firms and households. On the demand side, this has a negative impact on investment activity and private consumption. Taken alone, these effects amount to 0.1% of gross domestic product. Overall, German gross domestic product could be dampened by several tenths of a percentage point in the one to two years following a hard Brexit. The automotive industry would probably suffer most. However, recommendations for discretionary economic policy measures aimed at dampening short-term macroeconomic effects or at individual economic sectors cannot be derived from this. The automatic stabilizers are sufficient given the expected magnitude of the effects.
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Launch of IWH Bankruptcy Update From now on, the IWH provides a monthly update on corporate bankruptcy in Germany. It is...
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07.03.2019 • 7/2019
German economy will pick up speed only slowly
In winter of 2018/2019, the global economy weakened considerably, mainly due to economic policy risks. In Germany, the economy will pick up speed only slowly. According to IWH spring economic forecast, gross domestic product will increase by 0.5% in 2019. Growth in East Germany will amount to 0.7%.
Oliver Holtemöller
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