Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
Abstract
The paper analyzes leading indicators for GDP and industrial production in Germany. We focus on the performance of single and pooled leading indicators during the pre-crisis and crisis period using various weighting schemes. Pairwise and joint significant tests are used to evaluate single indicator as well as forecast combination methods. In addition, we use an end-of-sample instability test to investigate the stability of forecasting models during the recent financial crisis. We find in general that only a small number of single indicator models were performing well before the crisis. Pooling can substantially increase the reliability of leading indicator forecasts. During the crisis the relative performance of many leading indicator models increased. At short horizons, survey indicators perform best, while at longer horizons financial indicators, such as term spreads and risk spreads, improve relative to the benchmark.
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Cross-border Diversification in Bank Asset Portfolios
Claudia M. Buch, J.C. Driscoll, C. Ostergaard
International Finance,
forthcoming
Abstract
We compute optimally diversified international asset portfolios for banks located in France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States using the mean–variance portfolio model with currency hedging. We compare these benchmark portfolios with the actual cross-border asset positions of banks from 1995 to 2003 and ask whether the differences are best explained by regulations, institutions, cultural conditions or other financial frictions. Our results suggest that both culture and regulations affect the probability of a country's being overweighted in banks' portfolios: countries whose residents score higher on a survey measure of trust are more likely to be overweighted, while countries that have tighter capital controls are less likely to be overweighted. From a policy standpoint, the importance of culture suggests a limit to the degree of financial integration that may be achievable by the removal of formal economic barriers.
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Race to the Market: Can Standards Survive the Acceleration of Innovation and Product Life Cycles?
Ulrich Blum
Spatial Dispersed Production and Network Governance, Papers Presented at the 11th Uddevalla Symposium, 15 – 17. May 2008, Kyoto, Research Report 2008,
2008
Abstract
Plagiarism of emerging market countries has for a considerable time been seen as the main challenge to the western approach of codifying and securing intellectual property rights (IPRs). This neglects the fact that historically all countries which tried to converge to the level of successful economies copied technology. The discussion shadows our view that the more imminent question is whether the steady increase in competition intensity which shortens product life cycles and puts pressure on the invention and innovation system, provides enough time to patent and to standardize. As patent activity not only provides incentives for sinking costs into R&D but is also a first step in the dissemination of technologies, and as standards, especially formal standards, generate level playing fields in broad and reliable markets, this may be critical in the long run. Furthermore, the migration of technologies as a result of a steady reorganization of the spatial division of labor may lead to the adverse situation that countries harboring technologies do not have appropriate institutions for knowledge codification.
Exogenous factors that – at least in the short run – cannot be influenced by the standardization bodies are the level of cooperation among interested parties (and mutual trust and institutional linkage), the competitiveness of the technology, the ability to generate externalities by knowledge codification, and the productivity of the technologies. The most important single success factor that standardization bodies can influence is the speed with which a committee proceeds to timely publish formal standards. With reference to a game-theoretical model and based on data for 1997 and 2007 on published formal standards, we show that until now, standardization bodies seem to have successfully coped with the situation.
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The Relationship between Knowledge Intensity and Market Concentration in European Industries: An inverted U-Shape
Niels Krap, Johannes Stephan
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 3,
2008
Abstract
This paper is motivated by the European Union strategy to secure competitiveness for Europe in the globalising world by focussing on technological supremacy (the Lisbon - agenda). Parallel to that, the EU Commission is trying to take a more economic approach to competition policy in general and anti-trust policy in particular. Our analysis tries to establish the relationship between increasing knowledge intensity and the resulting market concentration: if the European Union economy is gradually shifting to a pattern of sectoral specialisation that features a bias on knowledge intensive sectors, then this may well have some influence on market concentration and competition policy would have to adjust not to counterfeit the Lisbon-agenda. Following a review of the available theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between knowledge intensity and market structure, we use a larger Eurostat database to test the shape of this relationship. Assuming a causality that runs from knowledge to concentration, we show that the relationship between knowledge intensity and market structures is in fact different for knowledge intensive industries and we establish a non-linear, inverted U-curve shape.
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Market Follows Standards
Ulrich Blum
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2007
Abstract
Standards are an important part of the codified knowledge of a society. In contrast to industry standards, formal standards are created in a consensus-based procedure open to all interested parties. Only if an economic interest for application exists will formal standards be produced. Interested parties have to shoulder participation costs themselves, which enforces economic interest. Up to a certain extent, governments also trigger and finance formal standardisation processes through the new approach, which creates a framework that is filled by private activity. Standards stand at the end of intellectual property rights if the totality of the value chain of knowledge production is looked at. One important aspect is their accessibility and the inclusion of all necessary intellectual property rights, especially patents, at reasonable prices. Conversely, consortia may exclude groups from the use of their standards. By preventing the licensing of those patents included in a standard, they can effectively block market entry. Thus, “successful” standards often face antitrust problems. Formal standards reduce costs of production through economies of scale, economies of scope and network-economies. Goods and processes that are standardized signal quality, the inclusion of high technological standards and permanent presence in the markets, which again accelerates market dissemination. Firms face a dilemma: On the one hand, the penetration of a markets with industry standards offers potentials for high profits; on the other hand, this has to be balanced against the risk of failure, especially if clients are hesitant because they do not know which standard will be successful in the end. Formal standards create and stabilize trust markets. This is especially true in the area of globalisation. Europe, which has to face an enormous competition in the international knowledge economy, needs an institutionally efficient approach to formal standardisation. This contribution addresses future problems of the European standardisation that have been developed within the framework of a working group of the European Standardisation Organisation called Future Landscape of European Standardisation (FLES).
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Challenges for Formal Standardization: the Institutional Reforms 2008 – 2010 Reconsidered.
Ulrich Blum
Standardization Research in Information Technology: New Perspectives,
2007
Abstract
This study considers the developments in international standardization over the last 20 years, particularly the status of formal standardization as compared with consortium-based industrial standardization. The report shows that the radical reform of the global formal standardization system that started in 2008, prompted by the loss of interest in formal standardization on the part of large corporations and the sometimes less than satisfactory outcomes from consortium-based industrial standardization in terms of competition and anti-trust considerations, has helped to compensate for the declining significance of national formal standardization. This specifically relates to national governments, and is to be regarded as a clearly positive development, from both the economic and the institutional and political points of view. Global public interests are now catered for by internet-supported information markets; in particular, online documentation has also enhanced the transparency of the formal standardization process and provided freedom of access for small and medium sized companies in particular, irrespective of geographical region. Finally, the study shows that the debate that took place in and around the year 2004 between Europe and the USA regarding the path towards the internationalization of formal standardization processes was superfluous, incomplete and even counterproductive, owing to the hardening of the political divisions between the two sides.
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Competition Policy in Central Eastern Europe in the Light of EU Accession
Jens Hölscher
Journal of Common Market Studies,
No. 2,
2004
Abstract
This study reviews the progress made in EU accession candidates on competition policy. The analysis shows that institution-building and legislation are well under way and that anti-trust practice is not too lax. Due to the diversity among the accession countries under review, the study finds that the strictly rule-based frame work of the EU might not be the most favourable solution for some candidates: firstly, the small and open economies of most candidates make it particularly difficult to define the ‘relevant market’ in competition cases. Secondly, the traditionally intense vertical integration of production in accession states calls for a reassessment of ‘vertical restraints’. The policy implications of this study suggest that the EU competition task force should take a proactive, case-by-case approach vis-à-vis its new members.
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Competition Policy in Central East Europe in light of EU Accession
Johannes Stephan
Journal of Common Market Studies,
2004
Abstract
This study reviews the progress made in EU accession candidates on competition policy. The analysis shows that institution-building and legislation are well under way and that anti-trust practice is not too lax. Due to the diversity among the accession countries under review, the study finds that the strictly rule-based frame work of the EU might not be the most favourable solution for some candidates: firstly, the small and open economies of most candidates make it particularly difficult to define the ‘relevant market’ in competition cases. Secondly, the traditionally intense vertical integration of production in accession states calls for a reassessment of ‘vertical restraints’. The policy implications of this study suggest that the EU competition task force should take a proactive, case-by-case approach vis-à-vis its new members.
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Merger Control and Competition Policy in Central East Europe in view
Johannes Stephan
ICFAI Journal of International Business Law,
2003
Abstract
This study reviews the progress made in EU accession candidates with respect to competition policy. The analysis shows that institution building and legislation is well under way and that anti-trust practise is not too lax. Due to the diversity among the accession countries under review, the study finds that the strictly rule-based framework of the EU might not represent the most favourable solution for some candidates: firstly, the small and open economies of most candidates make it particularly difficult to define the “relevant market” in competition cases. Secondly, the traditionally intense vertical integration of production in accession states calls for a reassessment of “vertical restraints”. The policy implications of this study suggest that the EU competition task force should take a rather proactive, case-by-case approach vis-à-vis its new members.
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Economic Development 2002 and 2003: Investments – The Achilles Heel of the Economy
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2002
Abstract
The Article analyses and forecasts the economic developments for the World and German in 2002 and 2003. During the winter 2001/2002 the World Economy was able to pull out of its trough. Nonetheless, the upswing did not reach investments and was mainly driven by consumption and exports in the USA and the remaining major economies, respectively. In the course of this and next year Investors will gradually regain their trust in the economy. The same will be the case for consumers in Germany and Europe. As a result a modest recovery on a wide front will develop. In the course of next year this recovery will start to weaken. In Germany, Wage Policy has retracted from its former moderate stance. Hence, although due to the improving economic conditions and the resulting slowed employment cuts by the end of 2002 as well as employment increases in 2003, the upswing on the labour market will not reach the dynamics of the 1999/2000 recovery. Fiscal Policy, caused by the need to consolidate the public budget, will be restrictive. Despite the low inflation risks, by the end of this year the ECB will have raised its major interest rate by 1/2 percentage point. Nonetheless, as interest rates in real terms will remain at relatively low levels a restrictive impact from the Monetary Policy in Germany and the Euro Area will is not expected. The most important Data for the World Economy and Germany are being stated in detailed tables.
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