Konjunktur aktuell: Leichte Belebung kommt, Strukturprobleme bleiben
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 4,
2025
Abstract
Die internationale Konjunktur scheint Ende 2025 weiter robust, die weltwirtschaftliche Expansion dürfte sich 2026 jedoch etwas abschwächen. Nach der vorliegenden Prognose steigt die Weltproduktion 2025 um 2,7%, um im Jahr darauf um 2,4% zuzulegen. Im Euroraum dürfte sich die wirtschaftliche Expansion in geringem Tempo fortsetzen. Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich auf einem fragilen Erholungskurs. Für das Jahr 2026 ist aufgrund von finanzpolitischen Impulsen und gestiegenen Realeinkommen eine leichte Belebung zu erwarten. Die Produktion dürfte im kommenden Jahr um 1,0% zunehmen, nach 0,2% im Jahr 2025.
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25.09.2025 • 28/2025
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2025: Fiscal stimulus masks structural weakness
The German economy is emerging from the trough and is likely to regain some momentum over the next two years. Following stagnation in the first half of the year, the Joint Economic Forecast project group predicts gross domestic product growth of 0.2% for the current year in its fall report. In the next two years, an expansionary fiscal policy is likely to accelerate economic growth noticeably to 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively. This means that the institutes' forecast for this year and next remains roughly unchanged from the spring report. “The German economy is still on shaky ground,” says Dr Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of the Forecasting and Economic Policy Division at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). “It will recover noticeably in the next two years. However, given ongoing structural weaknesses, this momentum will not last.”
Oliver Holtemöller
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Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) The Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) of the IWH was founded in 2014. It is a platform that bundles and…
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Corporate Loan Spreads and Economic Activity
Anthony Saunders, Alessandro Spina, Sascha Steffen, Daniel Streitz
Review of Financial Studies,
Vol. 38 (2),
2025
Abstract
We use secondary corporate loan-market prices to construct a novel loan-market-based credit spread. This measure has considerable predictive power for economic activity across macroeconomic outcomes in both the U.S. and Europe and captures unique information not contained in public market credit spreads. Loan-market borrowers are compositionally different and particularly sensitive to supply-side frictions as well as financial frictions that emanate from their own balance sheets. This evidence highlights the joint role of financial intermediary and borrower balance-sheet frictions in understanding macroeconomic developments and enriches our understanding of which type of financial frictions matter for the economy.
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Tasks of the IWH Guided by its mission statement , the IWH places the understanding of the determinants of long term growth processes at the centre of the research agenda. Long…
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