12.06.2025 • 19/2025
Economic recovery in Germany – but structural problems and US trade policy weigh on the economy
The German economy has picked up somewhat in the first half of 2025. This was helped by the temporary increase in demand from the US in anticipation of higher tariffs. If the US does not escalate its trade conflicts further, production in Germany according to the summer forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is likely to increase a bit (by 0.4%) in 2025, after two years of decline. In March, the IWH economists were forecasting growth of 0.1% for the current year. Growth of 1.1% is forecast for the year 2026. Similar expansion rates are to be expected for East Germany.
Oliver Holtemöller
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13.03.2025 • 10/2025
A turning point for the German economy?
The international political environment has fundamentally changed with looming trade wars and a deteriorating security situation in Europe. The leading parties in Germany are setting the stage for debt-financed additional defence tasks with far-reaching changes to the debt brake. This entails major risks for the German economy, but also opportunities. Meanwhile, the economy continues to be in a downturn. According to the spring forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 is likely to be roughly the same as in the previous year, and it will not increase significantly until 2026, partly because uncertainty about German economic policy is likely to decrease after the new government is established, meaning that the savings rate of private households will fall again somewhat and the debt-financed additional government spending will gradually have an impact on demand. The IWH economists are forecasting an increase in GDP of 0.1% for 2025. In December, they were still forecasting growth of 0.4% for 2025. The outlook is similar for East Germany, where production is likely to have increased slightly in 2024, unlike in Germany as a whole.
Oliver Holtemöller
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07.11.2024 • 29/2024
IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Firmenpleiten bricht im Oktober den nächsten Rekord
Wie das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) in einer heute veröffentlichten Analyse feststellt, ist die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland im Oktober sprunghaft auf 1 530 angestiegen. Das ist der höchste Oktoberwert seit 20 Jahren.
Steffen Müller
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26.09.2024 • 26/2024
Joint Economic Forecast 2/2024: German economy in transition ‒ weak momentum, low potential growth
The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a 0.1% decline in Germany's gross domestic product in 2024. Looking further ahead, the institutes expect a weak recovery with growth of 0.8% (2025) and 1.3% (2026). Compared to the spring forecast, this represents a down-ward revision of 0.2 (2024) and 0.6 (2025) percentage points. “In addition to the economic downturn, the German economy is also being weighed down by structural change,” says Dr Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of Forecasting and Economic Policy at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). “Decarbonisation, digitalisation, and demographic change – alongside stronger competition with companies from China – have triggered structural adjustment processes that are dampening the long-term growth prospects of the German economy.”
Oliver Holtemöller
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05.09.2024 • 24/2024
Moderate economic growth in the world – German economy continues to stagnate
Production in Germany has been stagnating for two years and is roughly the same level as shortly before the outbreak of the pandemic. Investment of firms is particularly weak. An important reason for fewer investments is the sluggish export business. Private households are also holding back on consumption, mainly due to concerns about the longer-term economic outlook. According to the autumn forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product in Germany is likely to stagnate in 2024 and to increase by 1.0% in 2025 as capacity utilisation normalises. In June, the IWH forecast had still assumed a growth of 0.3% in 2024 and of 1.5% in 2025. In East Germany, gross domestic product will increase by 0.3% this year and by 0.9% in 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Media Response
Media Response July 2025 Oliver Holtemöller: Das kommende Desaster in: Junge Welt, 10.07.2025 Steffen Müller: Rettung gescheitert für immer mehr Firmen kommt nach der Pleite…
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Wirtschaft im Wandel Die Zeitschrift „Wirtschaft im Wandel“ unterrichtet die breite Öffentlichkeit über aktuelle Themen der Wirtschaftsforschung. Sie stellt wirtschaftspolitisch…
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Archive
Media Response Archive 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 December 2021 IWH: Ausblick auf Wirtschaftsjahr 2022 in Sachsen mit Bezug auf IWH-Prognose zu Ostdeutschland: "Warum Sachsens…
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19.06.2024 • 19/2024
Sachsen-Anhalts Mittelstand weiter in konjunktureller Schwächephase
Die Wirtschaft in Sachsen-Anhalt befindet sich weiterhin im Abschwung. Die Stimmungslage der mittelständischen Unternehmen hat sich im Frühjahr 2024 weiter verschlechtert. Das geht aus der gemeinsamen Umfrage von Creditreform und Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) hervor, an der sich rund 430 Unternehmen aus Sachsen-Anhalt beteiligten.
Axel Lindner
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13.06.2024 • 17/2024
German economy still on the defensive – but first signs of an end to the downturn
In the first half of 2024, signs of an economic recovery are increasing. Production, however, is likely to expand only modestly during summer. From the autumn, the recovery is likely to pick up speed with higher real incomes and a modest increase in exports. In its summer forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product to expand by 0.3% in 2024 and by 1.5% in 2025 (East Germany: 0.6% and 1.4%). In March, the IWH forecast had assumed a growth of 0.2% in 2024 and of 1.5% in 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
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