Contractionary Macroprudential Policy, Collateral Valuation, and Risk-shifting in EU Banking
Michael Koetter, Felix Noth, Fabian Wöbbeking
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2025
Abstract
We study real estate lending responses to tighter macroprudential policy (MPP) in the form of lower required loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. Contract details of 2.4 million mortgage loans originated between 2008 and 2020 reveal significantly fewer new loan issuances in response to contractionary MPP, commensurate with an average reduction in aggregate lending of 21 percent. Loan-level analyses reveal, however, that banks comply with lower LTVs by systematically more benevolent valuations of residential real estate pledged as collateral instead of reducing loan size. Exploiting earthquakes as plausible exogenous shocks to property values corroborates these risk-shifting patterns by banks in the form of inflated property valuations after LTV shocks.
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DPE Course Programme Archive 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2025 Mathematics for Economists Roweno Heijmans (NHH Norwegian School of…
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Internship at Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Interested in gaining an authentic insight in the interesting daily business and the variable tasks of an institute for…
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CompNet Training Program Structure The course is made for autonomous online learning. It is structured in three modules : Beginners, Intermediate and Advanced. Each of them…
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Micro-data Infrastructure (MDI) Training The MDI Training is a three-session program designed to equip researchers (NPBs) with the skills to effectively work with cross-country…
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Economic Growth, Trade and Productivity Dispersion 7 th CompNet Annual Conference, June 21-22, 2018, Leopoldina, Halle (Saale), Germany The main target of this conference was to…
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The Importance of Credit Demand for Business Cycle Dynamics
Gregor von Schweinitz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 21,
2023
Abstract
This paper contributes to a better understanding of the important role that credit demand plays for credit markets and aggregate macroeconomic developments as both a source and transmitter of economic shocks. I am the first to identify a structural credit demand equation together with credit supply, aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy in a Bayesian structural VAR. The model combines informative priors on structural coefficients and multiple external instruments to achieve identification. In order to improve identification of the credit demand shocks, I construct a new granular instrument from regional mortgage origination.
I find that credit demand is quite elastic with respect to contemporaneous macroeconomic conditions, while credit supply is relatively inelastic. I show that credit supply and demand shocks matter for aggregate fluctuations, albeit at different times: credit demand shocks mostly drove the boom prior to the financial crisis, while credit supply shocks were responsible during and after the crisis itself. In an out-of-sample exercise, I find that the Covid pandemic induced a large expansion of credit demand in 2020Q2, which pushed the US economy towards a sustained recovery and helped to avoid a stagflationary scenario in 2022.
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Productivity
Productivity: More with Less by Better Available resources are scarce. To sustain our society's income and living standards in a world with ecological and demographic change, we…
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